Toledo weather - Sat May 14 2016

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
353 am edt sat may 14 2016

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-150800-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
353 am edt sat may 14 2016

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

a very cold airmass will descend over the area later today.
temperatures tonight will fall into the middle 30s over much of
the area. although skies are expected to remain mostly cloudy some
patchy frost is possible where any clearing does occur.

.days two through seven...sunday through friday.

skies are expected to gradually clear sunday night. this will
allow temperatures to again drop into the middle 30s most areas
with some locations falling into the lower 30s. frost and freeze
warnings may be needed if skies do clear.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

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Tol:
May 14, 2016 7:52 am
Weather : Fog/Mist
Temperature : 45 F
Humidity : 90%
Wind Speed : WNW 15 mph
Barometer : 29.73 in
Dewpoint: 42 F
Visibility : 5.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 38 F
External Link : 3-day history

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: May 14, 2016 6:31 am

Today: A chance of showers, mainly between 10am and 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 54. Breezy, with a northwest wind 16 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. West wind 7 to 16 mph.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 55. West wind 8 to 17 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. Southwest wind 9 to 13 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. West wind 10 to 16 mph.

Monday Night: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 64.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 45.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 66.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.

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fxus61 kcle 141105
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
705 am edt sat may 14 2016

synopsis...
an area of low pressure over lower michigan will pass to the north
of lake erie this morning dragging a strong cold front across the
local area. high pressure will slowly build across the region from
the southwest and south sunday into monday. another cold front
will sag south across the region on tuesday.

&&

near term /through today/...
the showers over the west end of the area continue to make slow
progress eastward and should reach northwest pa by 11z or so. not
seeing any reports of thunder and lightning so will omit from the
forecast. most locations will see a 3 or 4 hour period of fairly
steady light rain. the cold front responsible for this precip
will be into pa by late morning. behind the front very strong cold
air advection is expected with temps doing little during the
afternoon. all of the guidance shows instability showers popping
up in the cyclonic flow as 850 mb temps dip below zero all areas
by 21z. will continue with high pops the next few hours with
mainly chance wording during the middle part of the day. will
stick with likely wording downwind of the lake. there could be a
few peaks of sun late in the day in the west and south otherwise
clouds will dominate the sky.

&&

short term /tonight through tuesday night/...
a very cold airmass will descend over the area tonight with 850 mb
temps dipping to negative 5 or 6 depending on which model you
believe. forecast soundings and other guidance suggest that clouds
will be hanging around overnight. scattered showers are likely as
well. even though temps some areas will get to the middle 30s, its
tough to get frost with overcast skies so no frost headlines will
be issued at this time. if some breaks do develop in the west
later tonight later crews may need to go directly to a warning. as
it stands will actually go a degree or two warmer than guidance.
the snow potential also looks pretty minimal as critical thickness
only briefly get cold enough for snow late tonight. even if a few
flakes develop they will melt on contact with the warm ground.
unfortunately little change is expected on sunday with instability
showers continuing. would not be surprised to see a few lightning
strikes on sunday as temps aloft will be very cold.
however...given the uncertainty will omit from the forecast for
now. temps may be a tad warmer than today. eventually high
pressure will begin to take over sunday night into monday. at that
time will start to see the clouds break up away from the lake.
monday morning will probably be colder than sunday and that is
when frost/freeze headlines may be needed. will dry things out in
the east sunday evening and dry weather is then expected till
tuesday when another cold front sags south across the area. this
system will be moisture starved so will continue with only small
pops. this front will come back north on wednesday and that is
when the next good chances for precip will be. have not strayed
too far from guidance for temps.

&&

long term /wednesday through friday/...
high pressure is expected to be spreading east over the area on wed
to provide drying conditions while temps remains below normal. there
may still be some leftover shra in the east on wed then conditions
should be dry at least thru thu night. a weak upper low near
oklahoma will move toward the ohio valley by fri night and could
push enough moisture back into the area for a chc for shra by late
fri or fri night...especially in the south. temps should moderate
back close to normal by fri.

&&

aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
mainly mvfr should prevail into midday as a band of shra over the
west half of the area pushes east of the area. sct shra will hang
around the rest of the day into this evening but shift into mostly
ne oh and nw pa by late evening. tol...fdy and maybe mfd may see
cigs lift back to vfr levels this afternoon into early tonight. s to
sw winds will turn nw with the passage of the cold front and
increase to 15 to 20 knots with gusts of 25 to 30 knots today then
diminish some for tonight.

outlook...non-vfr much of the time in ne oh/nw pa thru sunday. non-
vfr possible again in showers tuesday/tuesday night.

&&

marine...
modified arctic air spreading ese across the lake today should lead
to high end sca conditions with winds to 30 knots for a while until
diminishing to mainly 15 to 25 knots for tonight and sunday. high
pressure moves up the oh valley sun night and mon causing winds to
diminish a little and back more to the sw but marginal sca waves may
persist on the east half of the lake well into monday. another cold
front drops se across the lake mon night but weather features are
fairly weak by then so even as winds turn out of the n to ne tue
into wed wind speeds should stay 15 knots or less.

&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 7 am this morning to 8 am edt monday
for lez142>149.

&&

$$
synopsis...kubina
near term...kubina
short term...kubina
long term...adams
aviation...adams
marine...adams

#toledo #weather