Toledo weather - wed, jun 8, 2016

Part of the Toledo area is under a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Fri, Jun 10, 2016. For us, I think any chance for severe weather would occur Friday night.

SPC continues to forecast a chance for severe weather on Sat, Jun 11, although the main area continues to exist east of us.

Saturday will be the warmest day of the week by far with high temps possibly reaching the upper 80s to low 90s.

Low temps tomorrow morning may drop into the mid 40s in some areas outside of the city.

Below are excerpts from this morning's Area Forecast Discussion, issued by the Detroit/Pontiac National Weather Service office for Friday night and Saturday that includes Monroe and Lenawee counties.

According to this info at the moment, we may have a better chance for thunderstorms on late Friday night or early Saturday morning, compared to the daytime on Saturday. It's possible that areas south and east of Toledo will have a good chance for severe weather on Saturday. Subject to change, of course.

main pooling of moisture and instability will remain back across the upper mississippi river valley/dakotas, and there is good indication a thunderstorm complex will develop in this vicinity, tracking into the western great lakes late friday, and through lower michigan friday night.

nocturnal low level jet over the midwest should help sustain showers and thunderstorms, even with surface/low level instability lacking over southeast michigan.

with 00z euro indicating showalter indices around -3 c friday night, would not rule out elevated storms supporting a large hail threat, and perhaps a wind threat with an organized mcs overcoming the weak instability at the surface.

assuming this complex exits early saturday morning (exact placement and timing subject to change), good instability is still progged to develop over southeast michigan on saturday, as mlcapes rise to 2000 j/kg.

however, we will likely still be in the subsidence wake of the morning complex, with no upper level support to speak of, as 500 mb heights rise slightly, if anything.

thus, confidence is not terribly high in activity on saturday, even with the cold front sagging south and providing a focus.

pretty good wind shear left over, coupled with good instability to support a severe threat if activity does in fact go.

still looking at a reasonable shot at 90 degrees across detroit area

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breezy, sunny, cool day.

TOL:
Jun 8, 2016 11:52 am
Weather : A Few Clouds
Temperature : 64 F
Humidity : 43%
Wind Speed : NW 14 mph
Barometer : 29.97 in
Dewpoint: 41 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

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