Toledo weather - thu, june 9, 2016

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1015 am edt thu jun 9 2016

synopsis...
high pressure over the ohio valley will shift to the carolina
coast by friday. a warm front from the midwest will move near the
area on friday, then slowly move north over lake erie on
saturday. a cold front will drop south across the area by daybreak
sunday. high pressure from canada will build south across the
great lakes on monday.

&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
patchy high clouds drifting in. there is a large patch of
altocumulus dropping across lower michigan. some of that will
dissipate but there will be some increase in cloudiness especially
across north central and northwest ohio. removed the chance for
showers/storms this evening across northwest ohio. the air mass is
very dry and the northwest flow should keep most the showers to
our west, at least for the first part of the night.

original "today" discussion...
high pressure will remain in control through sunset. low level
moisture remains very limited so not only will it be tough to get
cumulus clouds today it will be nearly impossible for precip
before 00z. so...have removed the mention from the west for the
daylight hours. given expected 850 mb temps...highs today should
be a tad warmer than yesterday. all but the eastern end of the
area should reach 70 today. expect to see high clouds increase
from west to east during the afternoon.

&&

short term /6 pm this evening through sunday night/...
precip chances and timing continue to be a challenge today.
overall the models are in fair agreement into saturday. based on
the new guidance...including the latest sref...have slowed down
the onset of the precip tonight. it will likely be close to 03z
before the first showers reach the west end of the area. by
daybreak about the southwest half will have a chance for precip.
the warm front responsible for the precip will stall over the area
on friday and cut the forecast area about in half from northwest
to southeast. locations north of the front will see easterly flow
continue which will keep dewpoints low. meanwhile further
southwest...scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible. on saturday the front will finally move into nw pa and
that is when eastern areas will see their best chances for rain
this weekend. will continue with likely pops in the east with
chance wording in the west. surface dewpoints will surge into the
60s friday night and saturday so instability will build during
the period. forecast soundings are showing between 2000 and 2500
j/kg of cape by saturday evening. fortunately bulk shear numbers
are 30 knots or less in the unidirectional flow. expect to see
some organized convection but do not think it will become severe.
obviously this is something that will need to be monitored. temps
will finally make it back to normal on friday with a warm and
humid day on saturday. have stayed away from mentioning 90 right
now because i am not sure how much cloudiness will be around
during the day.

the front will come back south at as a strong cold front on
saturday night. that is when the models begin to differ. both the
ecmwf and gfs have the front south of the area by 12z sunday. the
nam is much slower and has been discarded today. the gfs remains
much more aggressive than the ecmwf with the cold air advection
behind the front. will use a blend of the two. there will end up
being a fairly large temperature gradient from west to east across
the area sunday with highs only in the upper 60s across nw pa. it
should be dry on sunday and sunday night as high pressure returns.

&&

long term /monday through wednesday/...
a return back to summer weather will take place over the weekend
into the early part of next week. broad upper level ridge will
dominate nearly the entire united states monday and tuesday.
amplification of the upper level ridge will take place wednesday as
troughiness dives into the northeastern states. a small shortwave
trough and associated positive vorticity maximum will rotate over
the top of the upper level ridge and dive into the forecast area by
wednesday night. this feature along with it's surface low pressure
system will bring a chance for some showers and thunderstorms to the
forecast area by wednesday. otherwise, dry weather is expected for
much of the extended period under the influence of the upper level
ridge and surface ridge nosing south out of canada. temperatures
will recover to the 80s west and 70s east monday and tuesday but
generally 80s for highs all areas by wednesday. overnight lows will
climb back into the 60s.

&&

aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
high pressure will dominate the forecast area through a good
portion of the day. expecting a warn front to lift slowly
northeast toward the area tonight and this feature will continue
to spread high level moisture into the area today and gradually
lower ceilings overnight. some rain will move into the western
portions of the area overnight in association with the warm front.
otherwise, areas to the east will remain dry. winds should remain
fairly light through the period as well most areas but expecting
10 to 15 knots at erie and youngstown but diminishing this
afternoon.

outlook...non vfr across the west friday and across the entire
area friday night and saturday.

&&

marine...
winds and waves have increased a bit more along the erie county pa
shoreline. with winds in the 15 to 20 knot range through the
afternoon waves will be very close to 4 feet. so with that said we
will go with a small craft advisory and beach hazards statement
through 7 pm this evening.

previous discussion...
lake is expected to be somewhat quiet through the morning hours but
winds will pick-up on the extreme eastern half of the lake by
afternoon. light and variable winds will return tonight into early
friday night but will pick-up out of the southwest for saturday in
advance of the next system. the 10 to 20 knot winds will persist
through the day sunday but shift to northerly behind a cold front.
light northerly winds are expected for monday.

&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...beach hazards statement until 7 pm edt this evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for lez149.

&&

$$
synopsis...kubina
near term...kosarik/kubina
short term...kubina
long term...lombardy
aviation...lombardy/mullen
marine...lombardy

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temps were in the upper 40s this morning at TOL.

TOL:
Jun 9, 2016 9:52 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 62 F
Humidity : 38%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.10 in
Dewpoint: 36 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

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Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jun 9, 2016 10:00 am

Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 9 to 14 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. West wind 13 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 82.

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

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