Toledo weather - jun 10, 2016 - b

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
933 pm edt fri jun 10 2016

synopsis...
heat and humidity return to the area as a warm front lifts north
tonight. a cold front will move south into the area on saturday
night with a return to more seasonal temperatures to start the
work week. there will be a chance for strong to severe storms
saturday.

&&

near term /through saturday/...
update...decreased cloud cover for the overnight. still expect
partly cloudy wording will be good. convective complex to our
northwest will continue ese across lower mi through 06z before
models weaken/dissipate convection...taking any leftover activity
more east into canada by 08z. could get some of the cloud cover
in towards morning but for now kept it just to our northwest. no
change with pops or temps.

original...cloud cover over the western counties held highs in
the upper 70s which reduced the expected instability. this has
weaken support for showers and thunderstorms so despite the warm
front have reduce rain chances for the rest of the evening. a warm
front is expected to continue to lift northeast across the
forecast area tonight. this will spread warm humid air into the
area which will support temperatures around 70f in the west, with
warming temperatures in the east. the forecast area remains under
the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge which will limit
any precipitation chances. the models do hint at a weak short wave
which will be a sufficient trigger a few showers after midnight
with limited coverage. the models have struggled the last few days
in projecting a mcs coming down the h5 ridge late tonight. should
this develop it is likely to clip nw pa and the eastern basin by
daybreak. given the weak instability (surface and aloft) not
expecting much lightning activity with them.

&&

short term /saturday night through monday night/...
the morning is projected to start off with convection in the
northeast counties. for much of the remaining forecast area there
will be some cloud cover, most in the north, but allow enough
sunshine to rapidly warm temperatures. with h850 temps around 18c
this should support highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. dewpoints
will be in the upper 60s which could produce some heat index
values as high as 95f.

turning our focus on the severe weather threat, spc has a large
portion of the area highlighted in a slight risk for saturday. the
best timing appears to be in the afternoon when a pre-frontal upper
level impulse moves into the area just as capes jump to around
1500-2000j/kg. the available moisture is more than adequate with
pwats around 1.75", which will be approaching a seasonable max. as
far as shear goes we are looking at 30-40 knots towards the
afternoon hours. the best shear appears to be in the north and
eastern counties with less of a risk in the south and western
portions. given the high instability we can't rule out severe
storms even in those areas. freezing levels will be 13.5k feet
(-20c around 24k feet). once the diurnal heating wanes there will
still be ongoing convection as the cold frontal boundary sinks
south across the region. the severe threat is less though enough
elevated instability exists for some thunderstorm activity.

for sunday and monday looking at a notable drop in humidity behind
the cold front with highs in the 70s. the next best chance for
showers will be when a warm front moves in monday night.

&&

long term /tuesday through friday/...
an upper ridge over the region early in the period flattens and
shifts south as another trough moves through the northeast states.
meanwhile an upper low over the upper mississippi valley slowly
moves southeast and approaches the region from the west.
at the surface high pressure will be building to the east and be
centered north of the area which will produce a mainly northeast to
east flow across the region. the chance for showers is not overly
high and will decrease through the period as a drier northeastly
flow gradually develops.

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