Toledo Weather - Mon, June 13, 2016

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
617 am edt mon jun 13 2016

lez142-143-162-163-ohz003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037-141030-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh-lucas-wood-
ottawa-sandusky-hancock-seneca-wyandot-crawford-marion-morrow-
617 am edt mon jun 13 2016

this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie...north central
ohio and northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

no hazardous weather is expected today or tonight.

.days two through seven...tuesday through sunday.

thunderstorms are expected to develop wednesday afternoon and
evening. some of the storms may be strong to severe...with the
potential for downburst winds and large hail.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed.

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Day 3 SPC outlook for Wed, Jun 15 has the Toledo area under a Slight Risk for severe weather already.

spc ac 130729

day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0229 am cdt mon jun 13 2016

valid 151200z - 161200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms wednesday afternoon and evening
across parts of the upper midwest...southward into the ohio and
middle mississippi valleys...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms across surrounding areas...from
the great lakes into the southern appalachians/tennessee
valley/ozark plateau and parts of the lower central plains...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms across parts of eastern montana
into western north dakota...

...summary...
severe storms are possible from parts of the upper midwest into the
ohio and middle mississippi valleys wednesday into wednesday night.

...synopsis...
within the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies...only a slow
eastward movement of a broad closed low centered over the canadian
maritimes is expected during this forecast period. upstream...it
appears that there may be further amplification of large-scale
troughing near the pacific coast. east of this latter
feature...mid/upper ridging is forecast to continue to build from
the lower rio grande valley through the lower northern u.s. plains
into the hudson bay region. between this ridging and the eastern
low...a significant impulse...remnant from an upper low/troughing
now progressing across southern california and the intermountain
west...is forecast to slowly turn southeastward across the upper
midwest/great lakes region. as it does...mid/upper flow is expected
to transition to at least broadly cyclonic across the middle
mississippi and ohio valleys.

a surface frontal low may accompany the upper impulse across the
upper midwest and great lakes region...with the front otherwise
remaining quasi-stationary across the northern plains...and across
parts of the lower great lakes and central appalachians/mid atlantic
coast region. to the south of this front...seasonably moist
boundary layer air /with surface dew points near or above 70f/ is
expected to continue to advect east northeast of the middle
mississippi valley.

...upper midwest/mid mississippi and ohio valleys...
modest mid-level lapse rates associated with the remnants of a plume
of elevated mixed layer air...coupled with the boundary layer
moistening...are expected to contribute to large cape on the order
of 2000-3000+ j/kg by peak heating wednesday. strongest mid-level
forcing for ascent may be mostly concentrated along the frontal zone
across the upper midwest and great lakes region.
however...inhibition is expected to be weak enough to allow for
considerable thunderstorm development to the south...across parts of
northern and central illinois...perhaps eastern missouri...by late
afternoon. increasingly west northwesterly deep layer mean flow and
shear may only be around 20-30 kt...but this may be sufficient to
contribute to organizing thunderstorm clusters. some severe hail is
possible...but potentially damaging wind gusts may be the primary
severe threat as activity propagates into/through the ohio valley
through wednesday evening.

...eastern montana/western north dakota...
somewhat similar to tuesday...residual boundary layer instability
...coupled with developing large-scale forcing for ascent associated
with another impulse progressing across the northern rockies...may
contribute to isolated strong/severe storm development late
wednesday afternoon and evening.

..kerr.. 06/13/2016

click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product

note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z

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Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jun 13, 2016 9:27 am

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Light and variable wind.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 1am and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. East wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. East wind 6 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 81.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 83.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 60.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 86.

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
931 am edt mon jun 13 2016

synopsis...
high pressure will remain over the area today into tuesday. a warm
front will lift over the area wednesday...with a low pressure system
tracking se across the area thursday.

&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
a few changes to the cloud cover with this issuance. i will
decrease the cloud trend as clouds are struggling to move south.
temperatures appear to be on track.

original discussion...
high pressure centered over the great lakes will remain over the
area today. so dry at the lower and mid levels today that the only
weather to contend with will be some dense cirrus...now across the
upper midwest. it will spread across the forecast area today
filtering the sunshine. as far as temps just knocked off a degree
or two off of yesterday afternoons high temps due to the added
cloud cover.

&&

short term /6 pm this evening through thursday night/...
warm front stretching from iowa...across the mid mississippi valley
will be the focus of any convection. models a little slower moving
the high pressure system east of the area. in fact both the nam and
gfs keep area high and dry overnight so removed the mention of
convection for the overnight period. gradual increase in moisture
and temperatures through the period as the high drifts east on
tuesday. so for now will just leave chance pops going in the west
for tuesday. best chance for convection will be wednesday as the
warm front lifts slowly across the forecast area. then again on
thursday as a low pressure system slides se across the forecast
area.

&&

long term /friday through sunday/...
drier air will arrive on friday as high pressure builds south across
the lakes region. temperatures will be near seasonal averages on
friday with a slow warming trend over the weekend as the upper level
ridge expands across the great lakes. temperatures will reach the
low to mid 80s by sunday.

&&

aviation /12z monday through friday/...
high pressure will be overhead today then slowly drift east on
tuesday. vfr conditions are expected through the taf cycle. the
only exception to this is mvfr clouds located just east of eri
expand westward through 14z. otherwise high clouds will increase
today and lower overnight. can not rule out a few sprinkles
overnight but best chance would be towards tol late tonight. winds
will generally be 10 knots or less.

outlook...non vfr possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms
on wednesday and thursday.

&&

marine...
winds and waves will continue to decrease early this morning with
lake breezes developing this afternoon. high pressure overhead today
will set up across the eastern great lakes through mid-week with
easterly winds on the lake. winds on the western basin will increase
to 15-20 knots on tuesday and a small craft advisory may be needed
as waves build down the long fetch of the lake. an area of low
pressure will move across the lake wednesday night and thursday
causing winds to be somewhat variable before finally setting up out
of the northeast on friday. the northeasterly flow at 15-20 knots
will once again lead to choppy conditions with onshore flow. high
pressure will set up for next weekend with improving marine
conditions.

&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...djb
near term...garnet
short term...djb
long term...kec
aviation...kec
marine...kec

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