Toledo weather - Monday June 20, 2016

spc ac 200717

day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0217 am cdt mon jun 20 2016

valid 221200z - 231200z

...there is an enh risk of svr tstms from cntrl ia across nrn
il...indiana...and wrn oh...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from srn mn/ia sewd toward the
oh river...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms from srn mn sewd to the cntrl
appalachians...

...summary...
severe storms capable of widespread damaging wind...a few tornadoes
and large hail are possible across a large area from the upper
mississippi valley southeastward into the ohio valley during the day
and overnight on wednesday.

...synopsis...
a broad belt of strong nwly flow aloft will exist across the nrn
states...with main long-wave trough over the nern states and upper
high centered over the srn plains. within this nwly flow regime will
be multiple disturbances which are likely to be associated with
clusters of severe storms from the upper ms valley sewd toward the
oh valley. a sfc low will move from nebraska wed morning into ia by
00z...with a warm front lifting nwd across the upper ms valley and
toward srn lake michigan. ample moisture and instability will be
present to support severe storms...with strong wind fields possibly
supporting a corridor of widespread severe storms...the centroid of
which may shift in later outlooks as predictability changes.

...upper ms valley sewd toward the oh valley...
models show a complex of storms...possibly severe with hail and
wind...ongoing near the warm front roughly from ia into srn wi and
nrn il wed morning in association with strong warm advection.
coincident with these storms is also a small midlevel speed
max/jetlet. as such...this potential system could persist for much
of the day. by late afternoon...the air mass will become more
unstable...with mucape to around 3000 j/kg likely...with another
speed max aloft possibly embedded within the nw flow. renewed
development is expected near the sfc low over ia during the late
afternoon...which may track along any outflow boundary from early
convection. the strong flow aloft as well as impressive 850 mb
jet...resulting in very strong mean wind speeds...all point toward a
possible widespread damaging wind event in and close to the enhanced
risk area. initially...supercells may be present prior to storm
mergers...with tornadoes and large hail.

..jewell.. 06/20/2016

click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product

note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z

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http://jothut.com/cgi-bin/junco.pl/replies/73058

http://toledoweather.info/mesoscale0991.html

http://toledoweather.info/mesoscale0991.html #toledo #weather
From: JR's : micro blog - Jun 20, 2016 - reply

4 replies
JR: Tol Jun 20, 2016 10:52 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 85 F Humidity : 57% Wind Speed : WSW 16 mph Barometer : 30.09 in Dewpoint: 68 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 88 F External Link : 3-day history
- 8 mins ago - # - reply

JR: (formerly Metcalf Airport) Jun 20, 2016 10:53 am Weather : Fair and Breezy Temperature : 86 F Humidity : 53% Wind Speed : W 22 mph - Gust 30 mph Barometer : 30.10 in Dewpoint: 67 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 89 F
- 7 mins ago - # - reply

JR: (near Lambertville) Jun 20, 2016 10:55 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 87 F Humidity : 54% Wind Speed : W 14 mph - Gust 17 mph Barometer : 30.08 in Dewpoint: 69 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 91 F
- 7 mins ago - # - reply

JR: Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Jun 20, 2016 9:02 am Today: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
- 7 mins ago - # - reply

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md 0991 concerning severe potential...watch unlikely for southern/eastern lower michigan

mesoscale discussion 0991
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0942 am cdt mon jun 20 2016

areas affected...southern/eastern lower michigan

concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely

valid 201442z - 201545z

probability of watch issuance...20 percent

summary...some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts
may be possible with thunderstorms across southeastern lower
michigan through around 18-19z. it currently appears that stronger
storms may remain rather widely scattered to isolated in nature. as
a result...is not clear that a severe weather watch will be
needed...but trends will continue to be monitored.

discussion...thunderstorm development is underway...and may be
associated with a narrow band of mid-level forcing for ascent which
models suggest will progress eastward across the michigan thumb and
southern lower michigan through 18-19z. pre-frontal low-level flow
across this region is characterized by a substantial westerly
component...with generally weak convergence. and relatively warm
mid-level layers likely are still contributing to substantial
inhibition. however...with continued insolation...it is possible
that boundary layer destabilization could support the
intensification of one or two storms...before associated forcing
spreads into southern ontario this afternoon. if this occurs...cape
of 1000-2000 j/kg...coupled with strengthening lower/mid
tropospheric westerly flow /30-50+ kt/...probably will be conducive
to at least some risk for severe hail and locally severe wind gusts

..kerr/guyer.. 06/20/2016

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...dtx...apx...iwx...grr...

lat...lon 42238293 41898440 41888599 43338594 44218449 44988314
44708223 43088228 42238293

read more

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hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
501 am edt mon jun 20 2016

for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

a cold front arriving for this evening will bring with it the
threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. damaging wind and
isolated large hail will be the primary threats with these
thunderstorms.

.days two through seven...tuesday through sunday.

there is a chance for thunderstorms wednesday night and some of
these storms may be strong to severe.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

$$