Toledo weather - thu, july 7, 2016

TOL: Jul 7, 2016 11:52 am
Weather : A Few Clouds
Temperature : 86 F
Humidity : 53%
Wind Speed : WSW 9 mph
Barometer : 29.84 in
Dewpoint: 67 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 89 F

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hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
426 am edt thu jul 7 2016

for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

there is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
increasing tonight. some storms could approach severe limits with
wind gusts to 60 mph and locally heavy rain being the main
hazards. the storm prediction center has outlined a marginal risk
of severe weather with these thunderstorms.

.days two through seven...friday through wednesday.

the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms continues for friday
ahead of a cold front. the main hazards with any storms would be wind
gusts to 60 mph...large hail...and locally heavy rain. the storm
prediction center has highlighted parts of the area with a slight
risk for severe weather on friday with these thunderstorms.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed.

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Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jul 7, 2016 9:17 am

This Afternoon: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. West wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. South wind 9 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. West wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. West wind 11 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 81.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 60.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 84.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 87.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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fxus61 kcle 071320
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
920 am edt thu jul 7 2016

synopsis...
low pressure centered over the central united states will extend a
warm front across the area late thursday. this low will move
northeast across the western great lakes and into canada on friday
and will extend a cold front across the area friday night into
saturday. high pressure will then build in over the great lakes on
sunday.

&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
the area is getting more sun than forecast so have gone with a
more optimistic forecast. temps are running a tad warmer than
yesterday and 850 mb temps are also about 2 degrees warmer. have
bumped temps up a few degrees at some locations. see no reason why
places like cle will be cooler than yesterday.

original near term discussion...
the surface trough and associated convection that impacted the
area last night has moved eastward allowing for the area to clear
out with just some scattered to broken cirrus remaining. the area
will continue to be warm and moist for thursday. temperatures
should be well on the rise to the upper 80s and low 90s and dew
points will follow suit into the upper 60s to low 70s. cloud cover
will limit how high the temperatures may go but right around the
90 degree mark seems like the final solution. only question mark
for thursday will be precipitation chances. there are some
capping concerns with 700mb temperatures in the 8 to 10 degree
celsius range for thursday afternoon with the lower part of that
range in ne oh/nw pa and no real forcing of note. cannot truly
rule out any diurnally triggered convection with above average
temperatures and high dew points or perhaps something kicked up
due to a lake breeze, but chances seem slim so went with a slight
chance pops for thursday afternoon.

&&

short term /6 pm this evening through sunday night/...
challenging forecast for thursday evening through friday night as
far as precipitation chances and timing is concerned. the big
feature to watch for first is an mcs that is expected to develop
over the upper mississippi river valley on thursday and continue
eastward into the ohio valley. the models are having a difficult
time with where this feature will go and with what intensity. the
track of this mcs will likely depend upon the timing and location
of the warm front that will move into the area thursday night. the
end result of this mcs will then impact the forecast for friday as
a cold front approaches the area and will trigger new convection
but with legitimate concerns on timing, coverage, and intensity.
do think that everyone gets rain at some point over this 24 to 36
hours period but tough to pin down a particular time.

for roughly west of i-71 went with a high chance pop for thursday
night through friday afternoon, left out the likely wording for
now until we see the evolution and path of the mcs. as for east of
i-71, slowly increasing pops to likely pops on friday afternoon
with the cold front. spc has outlined the southeast quadrant of
the cwa in a slight risk for friday which is fair given warm,
moist airmass ahead of the cold front and somewhat favorable jet
dynamics. friday's temperatures look similar to thursday around
the 90 mark, perhaps a touch cooler but nothing too noticeable.

some lingering showers/storms may be in place to start saturday
but things will quiet down and cool off for the weekend behind the
cold front. high temperatures will be a couple degrees below
normal in the upper 70s and lows could dip below the 60s degree
mark in several spots.

&&

long term /monday through wednesday/...
models in good agreement showing an upper level ridge building
overhead during the monday and tuesday time frame. a warming trend
gets underway with temperatures back into the lower 80s on monday
and solidly reaching the upper 80s by wednesday. moisture will start
to return to the area on wednesday as the high shifts off to the
east with increasing humidity. will continue with a low chance of
thunderstorms in the forecast on wednesday.

&&

aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
a little patchy ground fog in place at taf issuance will burn off
between 12-13z. otherwise expecting a scattered to broken cu field
to develop this afternoon. a wind shift off the lake to the
northwest may be enough to trigger a few showers or possibly a
thunderstorm from cak-yng early this afternoon. otherwise chances
for showers and thunderstorms to develop will be low until tonight
when moisture associated with the upstream mcs moving into illinois
arrives in western ohio. thunderstorms tonight could produce locally
heavy rain with ifr conditions and gusty winds as they move east
ahead of low pressure moving through the central great lakes.
southwest winds of 10 knots or less will shift around to the west
and locally northwest near lake erie. winds could also be slightly
stronger in the 10-15 knot range at eri.

outlook...areas of non-vfr thu night thru fri in scattered
thunderstorms.

&&

marine...
a weak area of low pressure over the eastern great lakes will exit
to the east today. west to southwest winds will be near 10 knots
this morning with lake breezes developing this afternoon. a warm
front will lift north towards the lake tonight with the potential
for strong thunderstorms, shifting eastward across the lake on
friday. southwesterly winds increase friday night and will be near
20 knots on saturday as a cold front pushes south across the lake. a
small craft advisory will likely be needed saturday as waves on the
east half of the lake increase to 3 to 6 feet. high pressure will
build overhead from late sunday through tuesday bringing a return to
good marine conditions.

&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...sefcovic
near term...kubina/sefcovic
short term...sefcovic
long term...kec
aviation...kec
marine...kec

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fzus51 kcle 071315
nshcle

nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
915 am edt thu jul 7 2016

for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie

lez142>146-072000-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
915 am edt thu jul 7 2016

this afternoon...west winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest.
partly sunny. a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
waves 2 feet or less.

tonight...south winds 10 knots or less. mostly cloudy. a chance
of showers and thunderstorms from late evening on. waves 2 feet
or less.

friday...south winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. mostly cloudy
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. waves 2 feet or less.

friday night...west winds 10 to 20 knots. mostly cloudy with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then partly
cloudy overnight. waves 1 to 3 feet.

winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for saturday through monday.

the water temperature off toledo is 74 degrees...off cleveland 72
degrees and off erie 72 degrees.

$$

lez147>149-072000-
lake erie nearshore waters from willowick to geneva-on-
the lake oh-lake erie nearshore waters from geneva-on-the-
lake to conneaut oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-
915 am edt thu jul 7 2016

this afternoon...west winds 5 to 10 knots. mostly sunny. a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms. waves 2 feet
or less.

tonight...west winds 10 knots or less becoming south. partly
cloudy in the evening...then mostly cloudy with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms overnight. waves 2 feet or less.

friday...south winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then showers
and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. waves 2 feet or less.

friday night...southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. mostly cloudy
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. waves 1 to 3 feet.

winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for saturday through monday.

the water temperature off toledo is 74 degrees...off cleveland 72
degrees and off erie 72 degrees.

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