Toledo Weather - Wed, Jul 13, 2016

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
343 am edt wed jul 13 2016

for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today. the main
threat will be damaging wind gusts.

.days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.

there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today. the main
threat will be damaging wind gusts.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jul 13, 2016 6:15 am

Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 92. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. West wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Southwest wind 8 to 13 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. West wind 7 to 14 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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fxus61 kcle 131144
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
744 am edt wed jul 13 2016

synopsis...
high pressure over the central appalachian mountains will move
little over the next twenty four hours. a cold front will move
southeast toward the area thursday. a trough of low pressure will
move southeast across the area friday. high pressure will then
build east across the area over the weekend.

&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
a narrow line of showers continues to move east mainly across the
extreme northern tier counties and adjacent lake erie. most of it
is probably just sprinkles. current forecast updated to account
for these brief showers. otherwise, no other major changes at this
time.

previous discussion...

surface high pressure will continue to be
the dominant weather feature across the forecast area today. the
warm tropical southwest flow with dewpoint temperatures in the
lower 70s will continue today and help to keep the atmosphere
unstable through the day. however, atmosphere remains fairly well
capped through much of the day and then begins to break down
toward mid afternoon. this is when we could see a brief period of
showers and thunderstorms developing but widely scattered across
the area. storm prediction center has the forecast area in a
marginal threat for severe weather today. but as mentioned, that
all hinges on when the cap will break down supporting convection.
otherwise, it will be another hot one with muggy conditions. as
dewpoints remain in the lower 70s, heat index values will be well
into the upper 90s today.

&&

short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/...
a broad upper level trough will swing through the area thursday
and friday forcing some cooler air back into the region. in the
mean time, surface high pressure will dominate the forecast area
through the night into thursday morning with a muggy air mass
dominating the forecast area. instability will be present in the
tropical air mass but may have difficulty supporting convection
due the cap holding strong. some scattered activity is expected
overnight and a better chance is expected thursday ahead of the
cold front. storm prediction center has the local area in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms again tomorrow ahead of the
cold front. thursday will have a better chance for the severe
activity to develop and main threats will be high winds and hail.

once the cold front slips by thursday...cooler air will move into
the region. a trough of low pressure will move southeast across
the area friday and could support a minor threat for showers and
thunderstorms. high pressure will begin to build into the region
from the west saturday into saturday night.

leaning toward persistence in the temperature forecast and remain
slightly warmer than guidance. cold air advection arrives thursday
night and continues through saturday night in the wake of the cold
front so will drop temperatures into the 80s for highs and lows in
the 60s.

&&

long term /sunday through tuesday/...
a weak trough aloft is expected to hang on across the eastern great
lakes and northeast states early in the week. a short wave is
progged to drop across the upper midwest and great lakes later
sunday into monday. convection is likely to develop in the vicinity
of the short wave but could run out well ahead of the short wave.
will have a chance of showers and thunderstorms sunday night into
monday. we will remain precariously between the heat ridge in the
middle of the country and the weak trough aloft in the northeast and
cannot rule out thunderstorms in the weak baroclinic zone right into
midweek. will keep a low pop chance of showers and thunderstorms
tuesday.

&&

aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
a decent size patch of lower clouds, ifr and low mvfr, has
expanded across the upper ohio valley and northwest pa. these
lower clouds will clip kcak and kyng this morning but should stay
south of keri. elsewhere, scattered to broken cumulus will
develop in the airmass which has moistened up. showers and
thunderstorms over the mississippi valley will likely reach
northwest ohio by late afternoon. not sure how far east they will
hold together this evening and made the forecast less definitive
farther east (prob30 and vicinity).

outlook...areas of non-vfr possible thursday in showers and
thunderstorms. non-vfr possible across ne oh/nw pa friday.

&&

marine...
a relatively light south flow will become more southwesterly and
increase in speed today and again on thursday ahead of a weak cold
front. the southwest direction will keep the larger waves on the
east and north side of the lake and we should be able to avoid a
small craft advisory until perhaps on friday when the flow will
become more westerly. this would bring the larger waves into the
south shore, especially east of cleveland.

high pressure will build across the eastern great lakes on saturday.
the flow will veer northwest and perhaps north but the gradient
should be light. the flow will come around from the south on sunday
as the ridge moves east but the flow could be light enough for a
lake breeze.

&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...lombardy
near term...lombardy
short term...lombardy
long term...kosarik
aviation...kosarik
marine...kosarik

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