Toledo weather thu sep 1 2016

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
359 pm edt thu sep 1 2016

.synopsis...
an upper trough will depart the area tonight and canadian high
pressure will settle over the region through the entire holiday
weekend. the next frontal system will only be reaching the
central great lakes thursday.

&&

.near term /until 6 am friday morning/...
upper trough overhead tonight. boundary layer flow becomes more
northeast tonight. lake effect showers will be possible across the
lakeshore counties...but moisture is limited. therefore only a
20-30 percent chance is warranted. cloud cover away from the lake
will fade with sunset...others will have variably cloudy skies.
temperatures will be cool tonight...with inland locations dipping
into the lower and mid 50s.

&&

.short term /6 am friday morning through sunday night/...
broad ridge and surface high will build and hold over the great
lakes through the holiday weekend. temperatures will continue to
be cool friday but will slowly moderate through the weekend. night
lows will remain in the 50s inland. we will have a series of sun-
filled days. dewpoints will remain comfortably in the 50s as the
humidity holds off until next week.

&&

.long term /monday through thursday/...
above normal temperatures will return during the extended portion of
the forecast as the upper level ridge builds aloft. surface high
pressure with mostly clear skies will remain on monday and tuesday.
by wednesday the high shifts eastward as a low pressure system
tracks across the upper great lakes. next chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be tied to the progress of this feature as energy
tries to round the upper level ridge in the wednesday/thursday time
frame. confidence is low in this occurrence this far out so will
continue with 30 percent pops in the forecast. highs on monday will
be in the low to mid 80s, but will return to the upper 80s/near 90
by mid-week with increasing humidity.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
scattered to broken deck of clouds between 4-7k feet will continue
for the afternoon. scattered showers moving south across lake
erie may be in the cle vicinity at times this afternoon between
19-00z. confidence was too low to include precipitation at any of
the other terminals but can not rule out an isolated shower at all
of the sites. much of the cloud cover will diminish this evening
although a low vfr deck may develop off the lake overnight. did
hold on to bkn ceilings tonight near 3500 feet at cle/mfd/yng
where clouds seemed most likely. north winds today will be near
10 knots and shift to the northeast on friday. winds may gust to
near 20 knots at times this afternoon, mainly near the lakeshore.

outlook...non-vfr possible friday morning parts of ne oh/nw pa
from lake effect cloud cover otherwise vfr.

&&

.marine...
the small craft advisory and high risk of rip currents has been
expanded westward to include all ohio counties and will extend into
the pennsylvania waters starting at 9 pm. waves have been coming up
on the western basin with some easterly component to the wind. winds
have dropped off this afternoon on the eastern half of the lake but
will increase across the whole lake to near 20 knots this evening.
given the onshore flow this should result in building waves for the
overnight period. the headlines remain in effect until 4 am but may
need to be extended a few hours into early friday morning if
conditions are not improving fast enough. by 10 am friday, waves
should be down to the 2-4 foot range for all areas with continued
improvement as high pressure strengthens over the great lakes.

high pressure will be over the lake through the holiday weekend
with good marine conditions expected.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through late tonight for ohz003-007-
009>012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement from 9 pm edt this evening through
late tonight for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am edt friday for lez142>148.
small craft advisory from 9 pm this evening to 4 am edt friday
for lez149.

---

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
339 pm edt thu sep 1 2016

.discussion...

upper trough axis swinging through the area is helping to kick off a
few showers (and possibly some waterspouts over the great lakes/lake
st clair) as it brings in a reinforcing shot of cold air and
steepens lapse rates in the low-mid levels. showers should dissipate
this evening as we lose daytime heating. strato-cu deck will thin
and shrink overall, however some stratus will linger under a
lowering subsidence inversion as north-northeast flow continues to
feed moisture in off lake huron. temperatures will feel a little
chilly tonight behind the latest influx of cold air, dropping min
temps into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

large upper ridge stretching up through the upper midwest will slide
east into the great lakes for friday and saturday (most models raise
h500 heights to 588dm+ by sat). this will allow the large area of
surface high pressure over the upper midwest and ontario to settle
in overhead. large-scale subsidence will set the stage for a
beautiful and dry weekend. northeast flow off lake huron will
initially keep temperatures on the cool side tomorrow (low-mid 70s)
and moisture advection will allow some afternoon cu to form under
the inversion and potentially promote some fog development
overnight. temperatures will then warm on saturday as flow turns
light and more easterly, with highs rising into the mid 70s to near
80.

high pressure will dominate the area throughout labor day weekend,
bringing plenty of sunshine to the region as daytime highs peak in
the lower 80`s. temperatures will continue to increase to above
normal values early next week as the surface high shifts east and
southerly flow increases. the chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms will return on wednesday into thursday.

&&

.marine...

cooler air streaming over the relatively warm waters of lake huron
has resulted in a scattered coverage of showers this afternoon.
conditions remain favorable for waterspouts through early friday
morning. convergence along a thermally induced sfc trough over lake
huron today will enhance this potential, especially across the
central and southern portions of the lake. surface high pressure
will build progressively into the central great lakes tonight.
expecting winds of 15 to 25 knots this afternoon to gradually weaken
into the 15 to 20 knot ranger later tonight. north to northeasterly
winds of 10 to 15 knots is expected on friday.s combined with
relatively warm water temperatures will make

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 156 pm edt thu sep 1 2016

aviation...

the longwave trough axis and associated steep midlevel lapse rate
pocket will become positioned directly over southeastern michigan
this afternoon. combination of added moisture from moisture flux
off of lake huron and steeper lapse rates will continue to yield
isolated to widely scattered light showers over southeastern
michigan this afternoon. strong diurnal component will lead to
loss in cloud and showers around dusk. persistent nne sustained
winds of 5 to 10 knots expected throughout the period.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

• moderate in ceilings below 5000 feet this afternoon.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement until 10 pm edt this evening for miz049-055-
063.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 8 am edt friday for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

---

TOL:
Sep 1, 2016 3:52 pm
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 71 F
Humidity : 63%
Wind Speed : N 9 mph
Barometer : 30.10 in
Dewpoint: 58 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Sep 1, 2016 3:53 pm
Weather : A Few Clouds
Temperature : 72 F
Humidity : 61%
Wind Speed : NE 14 mph - Gust 21 mph
Barometer : 30.10 in
Dewpoint: 58 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

(near Lambertville)
Sep 1, 2016 4:34 pm
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 74 F
Humidity : 54%
Wind Speed : NNW 5 mph
Barometer : 30.10 in
Dewpoint: 57 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

this afternoon, the sky has darkened, very low light, like it it might rain, but nothing. now at about 5pm, a small shower is moving north to south through west toledo. unsure if rain is hitting the ground though. it's dark out. i think the clouds and the small, scattered showers in michigan may be lake effect caused by the north winds moving over lake huron.

---

coastal hazard message
national weather service cleveland oh
413 pm edt thu sep 1 2016

ohz003-007-020415-
/o.exa.kcle.bh.s.0016.000000t0000z-160902t0800z/
lucas-ottawa-
413 pm edt thu sep 1 2016

...beach hazards statement in effect until 4 am edt friday...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a beach
hazards statement...which is in effect until 4 am edt friday.

• locations...lake erie beaches of lucas and ottawa counties.

• hazards...high swimming risk.

• timing...this afternoon through late tonight.

• potential impacts...dangerous swimming conditions from high
  waves and strong currents including rip currents.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a beach hazards statement is issued when swimming risks exist
from a combination of wind and large waves including rip currents
and longshore currents. these swimming risks can create life-
threatening conditions even for good swimmers. follow the
instruction of local authorities or stay out of the water.

---

000
fzus51 kcle 012001
nshcle

nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
401 pm edt thu sep 1 2016

for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie

lez142>148-020230-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from willowick to geneva-on-
the lake oh-lake erie nearshore waters from geneva-on-the-
lake to conneaut oh-
401 pm edt thu sep 1 2016

...small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...

.tonight...north winds 10 to 20 knots becoming northeast 15 to 25
knots. mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. a chance of
waterspouts. waves 3 to 5 feet.
.friday...northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. mostly sunny. waves
2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
.friday night...northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east.
clear. waves 1 to 3 feet.
.saturday...east winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast.
sunny. waves 2 feet or less.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for sunday through tuesday.

the water temperature off toledo is 77 degrees...off cleveland 78
degrees and off erie 77 degrees.

$$

lez149-020230-
lake erie nearshore waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-
401 pm edt thu sep 1 2016

...small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm edt this evening
through late tonight...

.tonight...north winds 10 to 20 knots becoming northeast. mostly
cloudy with a chance of showers. a chance of waterspouts. waves
1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
.friday...northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. partly sunny through
early afternoon...then clearing. waves 1 to 3 feet.
.friday night...northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east.
clear. waves 2 feet or less.
.saturday...east winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. sunny.
waves 2 feet or less.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for sunday through tuesday.

the water temperature off toledo is 77 degrees...off cleveland 78
degrees and off erie 77 degrees.

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Sep 1, 2016 10:07 am

Today: A slight chance of showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. North wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. North wind 6 to 8 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 74. Northeast wind 6 to 13 mph.

Friday Night: Clear, with a low around 54. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 78. North wind 5 to 8 mph becoming east in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Clear, with a low around 56.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 81.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58.

Labor Day: Sunny, with a high near 85.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.

page created: Sep 01, 2016 - 11:30 a.m. EDT

#toledo #weather