Toledo weather fri, oct 7, 2016

7:11 p.m. yep wind shift occurred. we've had little wind the past few days. it's a little breezy now. two living room windows are up. air coming in through the north window now. still at least a partly cloudy sky. should be a good movement of migrating birds tonight.

7:06 p.m. at home in west toledo. some clouds and maybe a sprinkle and a wind shift occurring now or soon.

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short term forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
550 pm edt fri oct 7 2016

ohz003-006>008-017-080000-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-hancock-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...findlay
550 pm edt fri oct 7 2016

.now...
temperatures will drop from the lower 80s to near 70 by 8pm as a
cold front passes through the area. south southwest breezes will
turn northwest.

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TOL:
Oct 7, 2016 5:52 pm
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 80 F
Humidity : 47%
Wind Speed : SW 5 mph
Barometer : 29.99 in
Dewpoint: 58 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 81 F

another sunny day with afternoon temps in the low 80s after starting the morning around 60 or in the upper 50s. an amazing stretch of fine weather this week. this is day number three with high temps in the low 80s. little to no wind. incredibly comfortable.

but this might be the final time that we reach 80 degrees until next April or May.

TOL:
Oct 7, 2016 4:52 pm
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 82 F
Humidity : 38%
Wind Speed : SSW 8 mph
Barometer : 29.99 in
Dewpoint: 54 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Oct 7, 2016 4:53 pm
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 82 F
Humidity : 33%
Wind Speed : SSW 12 mph
Barometer : 29.99 in
Dewpoint: 50 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

near Lambertville)
Oct 7, 2016 4:55 pm
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 83 F
Humidity : 37%
Wind Speed : SW 3 mph
Barometer : 30.00 in
Dewpoint: 54 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

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TOL:
Oct 7, 2016 7:52 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 57 F
Humidity : 100%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.11 in
Dewpoint: 57 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Oct 7, 2016 7:53 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 58 F
Humidity : 90%
Wind Speed : SE 3 mph
Barometer : 30.12 in
Dewpoint: 55 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

(near Lambertville)
Oct 7, 2016 7:55 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 59 F
Humidity : 89%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.12 in
Dewpoint: 55 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

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Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Oct 7, 2016 6:37 am

Today: Sunny, with a high near 82. South wind 5 to 7 mph.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. South wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 62. Northwest wind 10 to 14 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 41. West wind 5 to 7 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. Light and variable wind.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44.

Columbus Day: Sunny, with a high near 67.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 47.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 46.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 66.

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
727 am edt fri oct 7 2016

.synopsis...
the area will remain on the western periphery of high pressure along
the new england coast today. low pressure near lake superior will
track northeast with the trailing cold front moving east across the
area tonight. high pressure will build in from the west over the
weekend.

&&

.near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
06z nam has backed off a little on the moisture advection towards
the eastern cwa this afternoon which was in line with previous
forecast thinking. only adjustment to the forecast with the early
morning update was to bump pops up about 10 percent in extreme
northwest ohio ahead of the front this evening.

previous discussion...one more day of above normal temperatures
today as the area resides between a trough approaching from the
west and high pressure along the new england coast. models have
been showing the anti-cyclonic flow around the surface high
bringing a plume of moisture north across eastern ohio/western
pennsylvania this afternoon and evening. the nam is more
aggressive showing a thicker cloud deck in this afternoon while
the majority of other models show a thickening cu field in the
east this afternoon with thicker cloud cover waiting until tonight
to arrive. 06z pbz sounding shows a very dry airmass above 950mb
and will lean towards the better consensus which is slower with
the moisture. the degree of cloud cover will have an impact on
high temperatures and followed suit closer to the mav guidance in
the east which is 5-6 degrees warmer than the met at several
sites. skies will be mostly sunny in the west and went with highs
close to yesterdays values in the lower 80s.

&&

.short term /6 pm this evening through monday night/...
a cold front will move east across the area tonight ahead of the
upper level trough advancing into the central great lakes. models
have trended a little bit slower with the timing of the front not
clearing the eastern counties until just before dawn. moisture
approaching from the west overnight will be post frontal and expect
showers to be decreasing in coverage as they approach northwest ohio
late this evening. better chances for showers will be in the east as
moisture advects north ahead of the approaching front. raised
pops to 40-50 percent in many of the eastern counties for tonight.
also raised minimum temperatures for tonight across central and
western counties given the slower frontal timing and cloudy
conditions.

subsidence behind the front on saturday combines with deep layer dry
air to quickly clear clouds out from west to east. some cumulus
will remain downwind of lake erie with cloud cover increasing
saturday night as the cooler air arrives. stronger cold push
arrives ahead of high pressure building in from the west with
850mb temperatures falling to 2-4c on sunday. although the airmass
will lack moisture, cloud cover should expand saturday night into
sunday as low level moisture gets trapped beneath the
strengthening inversion. warmed temperatures downwind of lake erie
up a few degrees on both saturday and sunday nights given the
potential for clouds. temperatures will return to more "fall-like"
values over the weekend and sunday will be the coolest day with
highs ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.long term /tuesday through thursday/...
high and dry through the extended periods. broad upper level trough
transitioning into a more zonal flow with little in the way of
moisture expected through the duration. no strong storm systems are
expected to pass through the region. high pressure over the
northeastern united states will pull out to the east while a dry
cold front pushes east across the area by thursday morning. another
large area of high pressure will push east across the area thursday
night into friday. temperatures through the extended period will
drop back slightly into the 60s for highs thursday but recover as
high pressure builds in back to the lower 70s by friday. overnight
lows in the middle 40s to lower 50s expected. all of this takes
place as quick shots of cold air advection take place on the east
side of the high pressure as it builds into the region.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
mainly high clouds will spread east today and then lower as the
cold front approaches the west later tonight. moisture will push
north out of the southeastern u.s. and could drop ceilings down to
mvfr and possibly ifr tonight in the east at akron-canton and
youngstown. holding off rain until after 06z most places except
extreme west. wind should be southerly less than 10 knots becoming
northwest after frontal passage. clearing follows fairly quickly
behind the front tomorrow.

outlook...vfr.

&&

.marine...
winds will remain out of the south to southeast across the area
today into early tonight. cold front is progged to move east across
the area late tonight. this will shift winds around to the northwest
behind the cold front. winds will also be on the increase to 15 to
25 knots and we will likely need small craft advisories late tonight
into saturday night. winds go light and variable late sunday into
tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...kec
near term...kec
short term...kec
long term...lombardy
aviation...lombardy
marine...lombardy

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nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
354 am edt fri oct 7 2016

for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie

lez142>145-071415-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
354 am edt fri oct 7 2016

.today...south winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. sunny.
waves 2 feet or less.
.tonight...southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest 10 to
20 knots. partly cloudy in the evening...then becoming mostly
cloudy. waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
.saturday...northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. sunny. waves 3 to
5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. a small craft advisory will
likely be needed.
.saturday night...northwest winds 10 to 20 knots diminishing to
5 to 15 knots. mostly clear. waves 2 to 4 feet.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for sunday through tuesday.

the water temperature off toledo is 69 degrees...off cleveland 69
degrees and off erie 67 degrees.

$$

lez146>149-071415-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from willowick to geneva-on-
the lake oh-lake erie nearshore waters from geneva-on-the-
lake to conneaut oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-
354 am edt fri oct 7 2016

.today...southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 10 knots or
less. sunny. waves 2 feet or less.
.tonight...southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 10 to
20 knots. partly cloudy in the evening...then mostly cloudy with
a chance of rain showers overnight. waves 1 to 3 feet building to
2 to 4 feet.
.saturday...northwest winds 10 to 20 knots becoming west. partly
sunny. a chance of rain showers through mid morning. waves 3 to
5 feet. a small craft advisory will likely be needed.
.saturday night...west winds 10 to 20 knots becoming northwest.
partly cloudy. waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for sunday through tuesday.

the water temperature off toledo is 69 degrees...off cleveland 69
degrees and off erie 67 degrees.

$$

lombardy

#toledo #weather