Toledo Weather - Mon, Oct 17, 2016

#toledo #weather

amazingly warm/mild. lows in the 60s this morning and forecast to be in the 60s tonight.

TOL recent high temps:

• Sat, Oct 15 = 76 (sunny)
• Sun, Oct 16 = 72 (rain and clouds)

tol:
Oct 17, 2016 7:52 am
Weather : A Few Clouds
Temperature : 65 F
Humidity : 90%
Wind Speed : SSW 9 mph
Barometer : 29.86 in
Dewpoint: 62 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Oct 17, 2016 7:53 am
Weather : Mostly Cloudy
Temperature : 66 F
Humidity : 87%
Wind Speed : SSW 12 mph
Barometer : 29.88 in
Dewpoint: 62 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

(near Lambertville)
Oct 17, 2016 8:14 am
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 66 F
Humidity : 83%
Wind Speed : SSW 8 mph
Barometer : 29.86 in
Dewpoint: 61 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

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Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Oct 17, 2016 5:56 am

Today: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Breezy, with a southwest wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Southwest wind 9 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: A slight chance of showers between 10am and noon, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Southwest wind 15 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. West wind 5 to 9 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday: A slight chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 61. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 56.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 56.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 43.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
739 am edt mon oct 17 2016

.synopsis...
a trough of low pressure crossing the area will dissipate today. a
cold front will move southeast into central ohio wednesday and stall
through thursday night as a wave of low pressure moves along the
front. the front will proceed off to the southeast thursday night
then high pressure will push up the ohio valley friday into saturday.

&&

.near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
the trough crossing the area should push off to the east today
leaving a warm front just north of lake erie by this evening. as the
cwa breaks into the warm sector...the threat for shra/tsra will
decrease from sw to ne while unseasonally warm air spreads over the
area. clouds should decrease this afternoon but will slow down this
decrease some more. highs should end up from the mid to upper 70s in
the east to the low to maybe mid 80s in the west which will be
around the record high of 83 in toledo.

&&

.short term /6 pm this evening through thursday night/...
a band of decent moisture around 850 mb moves ese into the area by
the end of tonight in association with an increasing low level jet.
a few sprinkles could occur from this but not expecting measurable
precip.

a cold front will move into the area late tue/tue night then tend to
stall somewhere near the se part of the cwa as the upper level
trough digs west of the area. a wave of low pressure is expected to
develop and move along the front near or over the cwa. thus the
threat for rain should stay present wed thru thu.

near record high temps tue will cool some for wed due to the clouds
and rain and more so for thu.

&&

.long term /friday through sunday/...
given the cold advection and the trough aloft, would rather be
pessimistic on friday and keep a chance of rain with the highest
pops 50-60 percent across northeast oh and northwest pa, at least in
the morning. another short wave is progged to drop through the
trough on saturday and will keep at least a small chance of showers
in the forecast area with the best chance in the snowbelt. cannot
rule out showers in the snowbelt even into sunday as one last short
wave is possible along with 850 mb temperatures around 4c or lower.

forecast temperatures will be at or below most of the guidance given
the trough aloft and the likelihood of clouds and the chance of
showers. highs in the 50s each day with lows generally in the lower
and mid 40s.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
a few showers will continue to pop up this morning due to a short
wave passing to the north, warm advection and an increasing low
level jet. the majority of showers will develop north of the area.
since the odds are rather low at any one spot will not mention
any showers in the taf forecasts except for vicinity at keri. some
mvfr ceilings could develop near lake erie and north this morning
but drier air and subsidence will increase this afternoon and we
should see clearing from southwest to northeast from mid afternoon
to evening. south winds will become gusty at times.

outlook...non-vfr possible tuesday night and wed morning. non-vfr
likely thursday into friday.

&&

.marine...
winds on lake erie are in a lull this morning but the south flow
will pick back up today and especially tonight into tuesday ahead of
an approaching cold front. a small craft advisory may be needed by
tuesday morning. winds will likely decrease steadily during the
afternoon and evening tuesday as the wind begins to veer more from
the north. lighter winds will prevail until the northeast flow picks
up on thursday. a small craft advisory may be needed later thursday
into friday as a cold northerly flow develops.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...adams
near term...adams
short term...adams
long term...kosarik
aviation...kosarik
marine...kosarik