Toledo weather - sat, oct 29, 2016

TOL:
Oct 29, 2016 8:52 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 59 F
Humidity : 87%
Wind Speed : SW 12 mph
Barometer : 29.95 in
Dewpoint: 55 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Oct 29, 2016 8:53 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 60 F
Humidity : 80%
Wind Speed : SW 15 mph
Barometer : 29.96 in
Dewpoint: 54 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

(near Lambertville)
Oct 29, 2016 8:35 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 62 F
Humidity : 76%
Wind Speed : WSW 10 mph
Barometer : 29.94 in
Dewpoint: 54 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
800 am edt sat oct 29 2016

.synopsis...
low pressure over southern ontario will move east to new england
today extending a cold front across the area tonight. high
pressure will build in from the northern plains on sunday and
remain over the area through tuesday morning. low pressure will
move into the northern great lakes on tuesday and slide into
eastern canada for wednesday.

&&

.near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
generally no changes with this update. just wanted to adjust the
cloud cover wording to be partly cloudy in lieu of partly sunny
for portions of the central highlands/southern cwa, as i do think
that those areas may see a fair amount of sun this morning before
clouds build in ahead of the cold front.

previous discussion...
high pressure over the mid-atlantic will continue to drift
southeast ahead of low pressure over southern ontario and its
associated cold front. as the low slides east towards new england
through the day, the cold front will slowly drift south, likely
not reaching the shores of lake erie until late saturday night.
therefore, the entire area looks to be in the warm sector for
saturday. winds at 850 mb will be strong and advecting in
temperatures of 13 to 15 c from the west and although clouds will
be on the increase ahead of the cold front, many areas will see
the sun early, both of which may aid in daytime heating.
temperatures look to be at least 10 degrees above average with
areas to the southwest potentially getting to 20 degrees above
average if the clouds hold off long enough.

saturday looks to be a breezy day as there will be a rather
strong pressure gradient between high pressure over the carolinas
and low pressure over southern canada. wind gusts will be
strongest near the lake, closest to the low and coastal counties
may see wind gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range.

some showers may be possible in extreme northeast ohio and nw pa
this afternoon as the front moves closer. with southwest flow and
the sagging cold front, could see some convergence on the east end
of lake erie allowing for some rain to form. not exactly confident
on when this area will se rain but they will be the first of the
whole area to see rain on saturday/saturday night.

&&

.short term /6 pm this evening through tuesday night/...
the aforementioned cold front will reach northern ohio and
northwest pa tonight and given the abundance of moisture ahead of
it, all areas will likely see rain saturday night or sunday. the
general trend for precipitation will be from north to south, with
rain lingering the longest in areas of eastern ohio and nw pa. the
rain itself doesn`t seem to be a washout rain with storm total qpf
being about a quarter to a third of an inch or so. just think of
it as your typical murky, overcast day in northern ohio/nw pa with
intermittent rain and a coolish northerly breeze. temperatures
with the rain on sunday will likely land about or just slightly
above normal around 60 before dropping off behind the front.

the front will drift south of the area late on sunday, drying the
entire area out and allowing for high pressure to build in for
monday and tuesday. monday looks to be the cool day with
temperatures into 50s across the area just behind the cold front.
however, as high pressure drifts off to the east for tuesday and
low pressure over the northern great lakes slides to the east,
southerly flow will return to the area for tuesday, allowing for
temperatures to rebound well above average again into the 70s.
looks to be great weather to be outside for halloween and the
first day of november!

&&

.long term /wednesday through friday/...
the forecast area will remain in the warm sector on wednesday ahead
of an upper level trough approaching from the northwest. with
continued southwesterly flow, have raised highs on wednesday a
couple degrees with most areas expected to reach or exceed the 70
degree mark for the second day in a row. a wave of low pressure will
slide northeast across the lower great lakes ahead of the trough on
wednesday night, pulling a cold front south behind late wednesday
night into thursday. will continue with a chance of showers in
northern and western area on wednesday night, expanding to all areas
on thursday. very dry air arrives behind the front as high pressure
builds in on friday with partly cloudy to mostly sunny and near
normal temperatures.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
low pressure will pass north of the great lakes today with a cold
front sliding south across the area tonight. a 50 knot low level jet
near 2000 feet is located near lake erie early this morning and will
move east and start to weaken by 17z. this will create a period of
low level wind sheer at all sites this morning, followed by breezy
southwest winds of 15 knots gusting to 25-30 knots for much of the
afternoon. a ribbon of clouds near 5-7k feet will move east across
the area with the low level jet this morning. northern sites will be
on the fringe of this cloud deck all day while southern sites will
likely scatter out given the favorable mixing. scattered showers
will start to develop after 21z in northwest pennsylvania ahead of
the approaching front. showers will expand westward with the arrival
of the front overnight with ceilings lowering to ifr at most
locations.

outlook...non-vfr possible into sunday. non-vfr possible again
late monday into tuesday morning.

&&

.marine...
a small craft advisory remains in effect east of the islands through
8 pm. winds west of the islands will approach criteria for a few
hours this morning before dropping off this afternoon. low pressure
located north of lake huron will track east into quebec today with
southwesterly winds of 15 to 25 knots on lake erie. winds will shift
to slightly more westerly this afternoon with waves building to 3 to
6 feet in the nearshore waters east of cleveland. winds are expected
to drop off to below 15 knots this evening as a cold front slowly
approaches from the north. winds will be out of the north behind the
front on sunday with waves on the central portion of the lake
remaining somewhat choppy in the 2-4 foot range.

otherwise high pressure will build over the central great lakes on
sunday night before shifting to the east on monday. southwest flow
will increase to 15-20 knots again on tuesday as a warm front lifts
back north across the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
lez144>149.

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Oct 29, 2016 5:44 am

Today: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. Southwest wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Tonight: A chance of showers, mainly after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 54. West wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: Showers likely, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 56. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. East wind 5 to 7 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 72.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.

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