43 min

Jan 5-7, 2014 Weather

fxus61 kcle 051544
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1044 am est sun jan 5 2014

synopsis...
low pressure over the lower mississippi valley will strengthen and
move northeast across the area this evening. arctic high pressure
will drop southeast out of central canada monday and cover much of
the central and southeastern states by tuesday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
significant changes were made to hourly temperatures and
consequently precip type...wind chills and snow accumulation
through the next 24 to 36 hours. warm air is mixing in across the
east with a period of rain likely as precip moves in this
afternoon and this evening. no change to the "big picture"
however with very cold air...snow and blowing snow as well as
dangerously low wind chills moving in overnight.
original...currently low pressure center in central arkansas with
the arctic boundary into central lower michigan. light snow is
just now reaching into nw oh. forecast question of the day what
will be the track and timing of the low. used the gfs solution
since gfs and ecmwf very close. both models have the low reaching
central ohio toward 00z. that will allow a warm surge across ne
oh/nw pa this afternoon so that any precipitation this afternoon
will probably start as a period of rain. with dew points in the
teens and 20s evaporational cooling will help transition precip to
snow by late afternoon. heaviest snows will be from late afternoon
through the evening hours when the low tracks across ne oh and nw
pa. low forecast to reach eastern lake erie toward midnight local.
expect 4 to 8 inches of snow across nw oh today...while in the east
1 to locally 3 inches...depending on how long it takes to change
over to all snow.
fyi...winter storm headlines will imply/contain any wind chill
warning criteria so both headlines will not exist at the same time
and place.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through tuesday night/...
little change in the short term forecast. arctic front moves
through sunday night plunging the area into the deep freeze. expect
falling temperatures during the day monday. temperatures will
plunge to -10 to -20 degrees monday night...with wind chill values
of -35 to -40f. the last wind chill warning issued by this office
was 16 january 2009.
synoptic snow will end most locations by monday...however lake
effect across the snowbelt is expected to continue into wednesday.
&&

long term /wednesday through saturday/...
temperatures will will slowly moderate through sunday. highs are on
track to break 40 degrees in a few spots as early as friday...but
the guidance could be a bit on the high side given the amount of
snow that will be on the ground. so there will be a better chance of
breaking 40 saturday and sunday. the next chance for precip remains
thursday into friday...at least according to the gfs...which brings
a weak low pressure center up the spine of an inverted trough
towards ohio. the ecmwf does not jump on this feature and instead
indicates a low pressure system will develop over the dakotas and
spread precip across ohio for the first half of the weekend. with
overnight lows progged to be around freezing...rain could switch
over to snow or a wintry mix after sunset.
&&

aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
snow is increasing in intensity and coverage along a stalled cold
front to the west of toledo near the ohio/indiana border. so far
no restrictions to visibility at tol and fdy despite intermittent
snow showers. by early morning the snow pushes east and will fill
in across northern ohio...leading to ifr restrictions for most of
the day. considerable accumulation of snow is
expected...especially at toledo. eastern sites will likely see
less snow as rain mixes in and the front accelerates east.
approaching midnight the wind begins to gust to 25 to 30 knots
from the west behind the front...causing blowing and drifting
snow.
outlook...occasional non vfr in lake effect snow across ne ohio
and nw pa for monday and tuesday. more non vfr possible wednesday.
&&

marine...
as low pressure clears northern ohio and tracks towards the
northeast the wind will wrap around from the southwest...becoming
gusty by early monday morning. by mid-morning the wind will be gale
force over the lake. combined with frigid cold
temperatures...freezing spray will accumulate on objects on or near
the lake. upgrades to the gale and freezing spray watches will be
considered in the short term. by wednesday the pressure gradient
relaxes and high pressure settles in across the southeastern u.s.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 9 am est
wednesday for ohz011>014-089.
winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 5 pm est monday
for ohz020>023-029>033-037-038-047.
wind chill warning from 5 pm monday to 9 am est wednesday for
ohz020>023-029>033-037-038-047.
winter storm warning until 4 am est monday for ohz003-006>010-
017>019-027-028-036.
wind chill warning from 4 am monday to 9 am est wednesday for
ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036.
pa...winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 9 am est
wednesday for paz001>003.
marine...gale watch from late tonight through tuesday evening for
lez061-142>149-162>169.
heavy freezing spray watch from late tonight through tuesday
evening for lez061-144>149-164>169.
&&
$$
synopsis...djb
near term...djb/tk
short term...djb
long term...mayers
aviation...mayers
marine...mayers

http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/mesoscale0004.html

fxus63 kdtx 051710
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1210 pm est sun jan 5 2014

aviation...
//discussion...
moderate to heavy snow (lifr) will continue this
afternoon...persisting into the evening hours as low pressure
tracks through the eastern great lakes. additional snowfall of 5
to 10 inches of snow is expected across the area before the snow
tapers off during the early morning hours. the aviation forecast
becomes increasing challenging overnight into tomorrow...as
northwest winds ramp up and usher in arctic air into lower
michigan...with winds shifting to the west tomorrow morning...with
frequent gusts of 25 to 30 knots. will carry mvfr conditions
through the day due to blowing snow and snow showers...but snow
squalls and blowing snow could easily reduce visibilities to ifr
and even lifr...but timing and location is uncertain to include in
tafs at this time.
//dtw threshold threats...
* high confidence in ceilings below 5000 ft.
* high confidence in precipitation falling as snow through the
forecast period.
* high confidence in visibility falling below 1/2 mile in heavy
snow this afternoon and early evening this evening.
* high confidence in westerly wind gusts of 25 knots or greater
during monday.
&&

prev discussion...issued 1030 am est sun jan 5 2014/
update...
the lull in snowfall intensity this morning has occurred as
expected as the mid level fgen has waned a bit. however...the next
phase of this prolonged storm system is already advancing toward
the forecast area. noted cooling in the ir imagery has been
occurring across illinois within an intensifying region of mid
level deformation associated with the wave now lifting toward the
mid ms valley. available observations and latest 12z nam/rap
suggest this renewed round of mid level fgen expanding across se
mi this afternoon. recent sfc observations and sfc pressure falls
suggest the sfc low will track across central ohio this evening.
the most intense deformation is expected to occur in the 00z to
06z time frame. there is likely to be some contraction of the mid
level fgen later this evening as the mid level stability
decreases. this will potentially set up a band of prolonged
intense snowfall somewhere between detroit and saginaw.
recent observations support a continuating of the warning for the
intire forecast area. given the mid level forcing is not expected
to wane until after 06z...the warning will be extended to 4 am
monday morning. moisture quality continues to look good with this
system. given the expected forcing...additional liquid qpf
between 18z and 06z of 0.5 to 0.8 seems reasonable. liquid to snow
ratios will be around 10:1 this afternoon but should fall to 12 to
14:1 during the evening as colder air begins to wrap around the
sfc low. thus an additional 6 to 10 inches can be expected this
afternoon through tonight. in light of the snowfall last night
/amounting to 3 to 6 inches along the m 59 and i-69 corridors/
storm total snowfall of 8 to as much as 15 inches seems
reasonable. again the highest totals should be between the
northern detroit suburbs and southern saginaw/tuscola/sanilac
counties.
an update to the zones/grids/wsw will be forthcoming this morning.
prev discussion...issued 427 am est sun jan 5 2014/
short term...today and tonight
05.00z global/deterministic trend was a stronger...slower...and
slightly northwestward one facilitated by a greater phasing later
today between the pv anomaly now rounding through the panhandles and
the western hemispheric extension of the polar vortex digging into
montana. this is no surprise considering the westward progression by
the nwp suite has been going on for days. a few adjustments to the
forecast have been made...but the headlines remain in great shape
overall.
last evening through 12z...strengthening midlevel frontogenesis
under coherent polar jet axis allowed for the development of a long
reaching swath of precipitation/snow from toronto clear down into the
tx/ok panhandles. locally...the light snow has persisted throughout
the night roughly 45 miles on either side of a line from lansing to
flint to sandusky. snow ratios through the first half of the night
were uniform across the cwa at an approximate 10:1. this has changed
over the past hour with the fluff factor and snow ratios increasing
due to a substantial increase in midlevel h75-h5 uvvs. the increase
in vertical motion has been brought possible by increasing upper
level divergence with both the magnitude of the jet streak
increasing with time and an anticyclonic curvature change. snowfall
rates which had been eerily steady at .3 inch per hour are
undergoing an increase. have had a lack of snowfall reports
recently...but feeling is 2 to 4 inches will have fallen by 12z. as
long as the 4 inch amounts are more widespread...this will have
outpaced the earlier forecast. for wayne/lenawee/monroe counties
the snow has not started due to remnant upper level ridging.
models support the erosion of the ridging after 9z...which will
allow light snow to develop (regional mosaic does show returns
filling in). expectations are for a half to one inch of snowfall
for those counties by 12z.
12-18z...subtly...500mb charts show that loosely defined cyclonic
vorticity energy migrating along the fgen zone will orphan off of
the front and release northward through lower michigan and points
northward. this is absolutely reasonable given the increasing
influence by the panhandle energy/southern jet maximum. the abrupt
disruption caused by this inbound momentum will cause downstream
amplification of a shortwave ridge feature. and while shortwave
ridging component will not be nearly as strong as it will be much
farther east...it should be enough to cause for a relative lull in
activity this morning. do not like to totally abandon
active/saturated frontal forcing because mid to upper level energy
can exit but the low levels can still churn away generating
precipitation. models are definitely onboard with this from a uvv
perspective. no real dry air to speak of so categorical pops with
light snow should suffice. generally looking at an inch...locally
two during this timeframe.
18-00z...a classic midlatitude cyclone is expected to lift
northward through the ohio river valley impacting southeastern
michigan. the 00z suite checked in with very good agreement with
strengthening a surface cyclone to 993mb near hamilton ontario by
6z. it has been fun to watch the evolution of the model solutions
with regards to the amount of advertised phasing between the
southern pv anomaly and the much stronger lobe of the polar
vortex. in fact...the main 500mb vorticity maximum is now expected
to go from a flat-positive tilt at 12z over nd to a meridional-
neutral configuration by 3z over iowa. this will cause a
secondary maximum of rapidly deepening 1000-500mb height falls
which will cause the deepening surface low to at least draw back
west. that is the explanation for the westward trend as time has
been approaching zero. there remains some uncertainty with regards
to exact track of the midlevel low circulation which will persist
into the nowcast timeframe. the idea is that it will track
northward to just east of lake erie shoreline/detroit river or
slightly to the west...eclipsing a small portion of the cwa
between 00-03z. now dry slot issues are expected but will likely
result in lower snow ratios (sub 10:1) for the extreme
southeastern cwa due to warmer air. if anything...the midlevel
circulation passing just into the cwa will increase low to
midlevel convergence in advance of and to the north. it is with
this increase in low to midlevel forcing that will bring a
dramatic increase in precipitation rates due to heavy snow.
adjusted accumulations slightly westward to account for location
of the midlevel circulation and deformation feature. expecting 2
to 4 inches of snowfall for the eastern cwa...3 to 5 inches across
the western cwa.
00-06z...deformation snows will be ongoing at the start of the
tonight period with the deepening surface cyclone. combination of rh
fields in combination with forecasted wind trajectory analysis
suggests precipitation will hold through 3z...then rapidly falling off
after. the general pop forecast is unchanged...but qpf amounts after
00z were adjusted upward. snowfall amounts after 00z are expected to
range 1 to 3 inches in many locations...2 to 4 inches for locations
north and east of detroit.
with the expectation that up to 2 inches may fall through the
morning hours...will exercise patience and not make an adjustment
to the start time for wayne/lenawee/monroe counties. the end time of
6z for the winter storm warning still offers a clean headline across
the board...refinements can be made later. overall...looking at
event totals of 9 to 12 (locally greater than 12 inches) for the
central part of the cwa...5 to 11 inches in the saginaw valley...6
to 9 inches for the lower terrain of southern macomb/wayne/monroe
counties.
long term...monday through saturday
arctic airmass will overspread the region quickly on monday in the
wake of this winter storm with the coldest air pivoting around lake
michigan into far southern portions of the cwa. temperatures will be
falling at daybreak and will continue to do so throughout the day as
temperatures fall below zero (perhaps near -10f near the ohio border
by midday). further north...this process will be muted slightly by
modification of this airmass...so temperatures will fall to around
zero during the day from metro detroit northward. with westerly
winds of 20 mph or more ushering this arctic air into the
area...wind chills will fall to dangerous levels during monday
ranging from -10f to -20f over the northern cwa by midday and -20f
to -30f from metro detroit south.
cold air advection will continue unabated into monday night and
temperatures will plunge to around -15f south of i 94 and -5f to
-10f over the remainder of the area. wind chills will continue to
fall...bottoming out between -25f and -40f monday night and then
persisting at these levels through tuesday morning before slight
improvement late in the day as winds diminish and temperatures
struggle to near zero. still...dangerous conditions will persist
into tuesday night. will be issuing a wind chill warning from monday
morning to midnight tuesday night for the entire area.
lake effect squalls/snow showers can also be expected with this
bitter west to southwest flow. initial activity will focus along i
94 in westerly flow monday and then drift to near the m 59 corridor
by evening as winds back further to the west/southwest. southwest
flow will then maintain at least some snow shower activity into
tuesday...focused in the vicinity of the i 69/m 59 corridors. low
level inversion heights do fall from around 5kft monday to 3kft on
tuesday...so accumulating snow showers will be more likely monday
into monday night. while difficult to judge...such a setup should
garner localized amounts up to a few inches in the favored corridor
between i 94 and i 69. will not make any changes to forecast as of
yet.
temperatures will begin a moderating trend late this week into the
weekend as highs climb back into the 20s to 30s with time. within
this waa pattern...another period of light snow will be possible in
the wednesday night to thursday night time frame as warmer air
overruns the retreating arctic airmass.
marine...
north to northeast winds will increase rapidly this evening into
tonight as deepening low pressure tracks from the ohio valley to
southern ontario and the pressure gradient tightens over the area.
gale warnings will be issued for much of lake huron...beginning
around midnight sunday night. before these conditions set in over
the area...expect a wide area of snow to occur from southern lake
huron southward through this evening. as this low tracks to near
lake erie late today...periods of heavy snow will become likely.
wind gusts will then hover around low end gales through monday and
increase some on monday evening as arctic air pivots into area as
winds back to the west and southwest. these conditions will then
persist through tuesday as this arctic airmass progresses through
the great lakes. during this process...westerly gales will also
develop over western lake erie...with the strongest winds expected
throughout the day monday.
with these windy and bitterly cold conditions...heavy freezing spray
will become a significant issue over lake huron as well. expect an
extended period of widespread freezing spray over much of the open
waters from monday morning on through tuesday night.
&&

dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter storm warning...miz047-miz048-miz049-miz053-miz054-miz055-
miz060-miz061-miz062-miz063-miz068-miz069-miz070-miz075-miz076-
miz082-miz083...until 4 am monday.
wind chill warning...miz047-miz048-miz049-miz053-miz054-miz055-
miz060-miz061-miz062-miz063-miz068-miz069-miz070-miz075-miz076-
miz082-miz083...from 7 am monday to 1 am wednesday.
lake huron...
gale warning...lhz362-lhz363-lhz462...from midnight monday to 10 pm
tuesday.
heavy freezing spray warning...lhz362-lhz363-lhz462...from 7 am
monday to 7 am wednesday.
gale warning...lhz421-lhz441-lhz442-lhz443-lhz463-lhz464...from
midnight monday to 10 pm monday.
small craft advisory for winds...inner saginaw bay...from midnight
monday to midnight tuesday.
heavy freezing spray warning...lhz463-lhz464...from 7 am monday to
7 pm tuesday.
lake st clair...none.
mi waters of lake erie...
gale warning...from 10 am monday to 10 pm monday.
&&
$$
aviation.....sf
update.......sc
short term...cb
long term....dg
marine.......dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit (all lower case).

fxus63 kiwx 051638
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1138 am est sun jan 5 2014

synopsis...
issued at 520 am est sun jan 5 2014
a strong system will bring heavy snow to the area today and into
this evening. amounts of 8 to 14 inches are possible. a winter
storm warning is in effect through this evening. extremely cold
arctic air will move in behind the system through early next week
with wind chills of around 40 below zero sunday night into
tuesday. a wind chill warning is in effect for this period. low
temperatures tonight will crash to between 5 below zero and 18
below zero by daybreak monday.
&&

update...
issued at 1135 am est sun jan 5 2014
no changes to the going forecast/headlines this morning. moderate to
heavy snow currently blossoming over the area with cyclogenesis well
underway over the mid-mississippi valley in the exit region of an
impressive...and steadily strengthening...cyclonically curved upper
level jet streak. phasing of intense polar vortex dropping out of
the northern plains with southern stream pv anomaly will force
further height falls as the trough axis takes on a negative tilt
this evening. 12z models continued earlier noted trend of just a
slight nudge to the west...not unusual with these strongly
phased...negatively tilted systems. this has allowed for a brief
rain/snow mix in our far east/southeast counties but expect mainly
snow this afternoon/evening based on latest forecast soundings.
exceptional warm/moist air advection with this system is clearly
evident on regional radar mosaic. strong 280-285k isentropic upglide
along strengthening 850-700mb fgen axis with mixing ratios
approaching 4 g/kg is already generating snowfall rates of 2"/hour
in the heaviest band. very heavy snow will continue through the
afternoon...and though it will begin to taper off shortly after
00z...still expecting total amounts of 8 to 14 inches across the
area.
still concerned about the potential for blizzard conditions in our
northwest this evening. slight westward shift will bring lighter
winds and lower snow ratios to our central and southeast counties
but northwest areas...especially near the lake...could see enough
wind/fluffier snow to generate blizzard conditions. hi-res models
also still indicate the potential for a lake effect band to
materialize this evening that could further decrease visibilities.
after coordination with surrounding offices...decided to hold off on
an upgrade given potential for wetter/heavier snow with surface
temperatures just slightly below freezing and low confidence in lake
effect band development this evening. will continue to hit near
blizzard conditions hard in wsw and re-evaluate with the afternoon
package. again...best chance for blizzard conditions will be in our
northwest third from roughly 00-06z this evening.
&&

short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 516 am est sun jan 5 2014

..near blizzard conditions expected late this afternoon and
tonight...
numerous issues to deal with in this short term period. frontal
boundary has been draped across far nw areas overnight with little
eastward movement. fgen forcing with mid level jet has led to
persistent light snow with accums in the expected 2 to 4 inch range
so far. central and eastern areas have only seen some light snow or
flurries at times with drier air and lack of forcing. sfc temps have
also remained quite warm east of front with many locations in the
mid 30s at 06z. no model guidance has a handle on this with warmest
models showing 30 to 32f sfc temps at best. this an initial concern
but with dew points in the low to mid 20s expect evap cooling to
bring these temps down quickly this morning as deeper saturation
occurs.
surface low still expected to deepen and ride boundary northward
today with snow increasing in coverage and intensity through the
day. water vapor shows short wave digging into southern plains early
this morning and radar mosaic shows burgeoning area of precipitation
across southern plains into mid ms valley region in response. water
vapor also showing impressive subtropical moisture plume being
tapped over east central pacific. results will be an impressive
storm system with incredible moisture. 00z models are indeed a
little slower and stronger with system as it moves into the ohio
valley today.
biggest concern now is with slight westward shift as noted in nam
and ukmet given stronger system. nam is furthest west with warm nose
nudging into nw ohio mid day. this would cut down snow amounts
considerably with a period of sleet or even rain possible. while nam
is furthest west and a slight outlier...it does warrant attention as
we know models have an eastward bias with these type lows lifting
northeast with a negatively tilted system. 500mb short wave this
afternoon begins to take on more of a negative tilt as it moves
through indiana and this could very well pull surface low back west
as it lifts north through the ohio valley. reference similar system
in january of 1999 which had very similar near blizzard conditions
and a further west track through indiana. have opted to blend a bit
of this solution into snow ratios for this afternoon which cuts down
amounts over far southeast but still keeps amounts in the 5 to 8
inch range with snow ahead of warm nose and in deformation area this
evening.
elsewhere few significant changes made with heavy snow still
expected...especially from late morning into early evening. used a
blend of wpc...nam12 and ecmwf for qpf and snow amounts. this puts
heart of heavy snow through central cwa from about cass in up to
hillsdale mi. still expect some adjustment in 12z model solutions
for axis of heavy snow as surface low just beginning to take form
across southern plains. still expect a heavy snow axis of 10 to 14
inches with bulk of that falling between 18z and 00z with incredible
moisture flux and deep lift through the region. lake enhancement and
pure lake effect late tonight will also add to snowfall totals
across southwest lower michigan and far nw indiana with storm totals
there possibly approaching 16 to 18 inches.
next issue is wind late this afternoon and overnight and possible
blizzard conditions. much discussion internally among nws offices
concerning upgrade to blizzard warning...which we do not take
lightly and reserve for the truest conditions. strongest winds begin
on back side of system late this afternoon as bulk of heavier snow
is ending. 00z nam bufkit analysis indicates a period of a few hours
this evening with gust potential to 40 knots. however...strict
definition for blizzard warning would require sustained or frequent
gusts to 35 mph and visibility below 1/4 mile for 3 hours or longer.
the discussion has centered around whether these conditions will be
met and for how long. consensus among regional offices was to
hold off on upgrading to blizzard warning given the second period
event and monitor low development during the morning hours for
possible upgrade later this morning. quite possible that a larger
deformation area could keep heavier snow around longer to mesh
with stronger winds and create true blizzard conditions.
regardless of headline...forecast for heavy snow...strong winds
and blowing and drifting snow will lead to many closed
roads...especially rural and county roads which will likely be
left alone through the period of strongest winds tonight. have
continued to hit near blizzard conditions hard in warning. stay
tuned to updates later this morning as system develops further and
possible upgrade.
final note is temps which will crash impressively tonight as low
deepens and moves away. models in good agreement on strong cold air
advection late tonight but still significant differences in just how
cold these surface temps will be. continued with a consensus blend
which yields lows of 0 to 5 below far north where lake clouds will
keep temps up a bit to about 18 below zero in far southwest.
wind chills will drop to about 40 below in the south by daybreak
monday.

long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 516 am est sun jan 5 2014
historic/potentially life-threatening cold expected in the wake of
weekend winter storm
continued concern for bitterly cold wind chills early monday into
tuesday with values around -40f to -45f for over 24 hours. the ecmwf
has been very consistent with these bitterly cold temperatures...so
will continue with highs near record coldest highs monday and lows
monday night near all time record lows...especially at fwa. wind
chill warning certainly warranted into tuesday. temperatures should
moderate somewhat during the day tuesday...although bitterly cold
conditions will continue into tuesday evening. temperatures will
continue to modify as massive polar vortex moves north toward
greenland. kept a chance for snow mainly wednesday night into
thursday associated with the passage of a weak upper level trof.
unsettled conditions are possible over the coming weekend...although
temperatures should recover to above normal readings late this week.
held off with the very mild ecmwf temps in the lower to mid 40s
saturday given uncertainty and likely deep snow cover.
&&

aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z monday morning)
issued at 636 am est sun jan 5 2014
few changes to previous forecasts and thinking with this package.
light snow will continue to increase in coverage and intensity
this morning. a little freezing drizzle on leading edge possible
at kfwa for a few hours this morning. heavy snow by early
afternoon into this evening. winds increase late afternoon and
early evening with significant blowing and drifting expected but
snow will be diminishing so visibilities may increase to between
one half and one mile depending on amount and height of blowing
snow.
&&

iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter storm warning until 1 am est /midnight cst/ monday for
inz003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
wind chill warning from 1 am est /midnight cst/ monday to 8 pm
est /7 pm cst/ tuesday for inz003>009-012>018-020-022>027-
032>034.
mi...winter storm warning until 1 am est monday for miz077>081.
wind chill warning from 1 am monday to 8 pm est tuesday for
miz077>081.
oh...winter storm warning until 1 am est monday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
wind chill warning from 1 am monday to 8 pm est tuesday for
ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
lm...heavy freezing spray warning from 3 pm this afternoon to 4 am
est tuesday for lmz043-046.
small craft advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for lmz043-
046.
gale warning from 3 pm this afternoon to 4 am est tuesday for
lmz043-046.
&&
$$
update...agd
synopsis...lashley
short term...lashley
long term...skipper
aviation...lashley
visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx (all lower case)
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www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/nwsnorthernindiana

h2.

WWUS43 KDTX 051622
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1122 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

...WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN...

.SNOWFALL WILL QUICKLY REINTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND
ROUND OF THIS PROLONGED STORM SYSTEM BEGINS. THIS SECOND ROUND OF
SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE LADEN
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...INCREASING
WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

THE COLDEST AIR TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IN PERHAPS THE
PAST 20 YEARS WILL THEN BLAST INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WINTER STORM. THIS BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.

MIZ047-048-053-060300-
/O.EXT.KDTX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140106T0900Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.WC.W.0001.140106T1200Z-140108T0600Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...SAGINAW
1122 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL AMOUNT TO 5 TO 8
INCHES.

* 36 HOUR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 14 INCHES.

* NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

* WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO.

IMPACTS...

* SNOW-COVERED ROADS WILL RESULT IN TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS.

* VISIBILITY WILL FALL TO ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES.

* BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...PARTICULARLY AFFECTING WEST-EAST
ORIENTED ROADS.

* EXPOSURE TO SUCH BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE FROST
BITE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

* A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH
IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

* PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT
HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

MIZ049-054-055-060>063-060300-
/O.EXT.KDTX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140106T0900Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.WC.W.0001.140106T1200Z-140108T0600Z/
HURON-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...
FLINT...LAPEER...PORT HURON
1122 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL AMOUNT
TO 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* 36 HOUR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 15 INCHES.

* NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

* WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO.

IMPACTS...

* SNOW-COVERED ROADS WILL RESULT IN TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS.

* VISIBILITY WILL FALL TO ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES.

* BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...PARTICULARLY AFFECTING WEST-EAST
ORIENTED ROADS.

* EXPOSURE TO SUCH BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE FROST
BITE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

* PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT
HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

MIZ068>070-075-060300-
/O.EXT.KDTX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140106T0900Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.WC.W.0001.140106T1200Z-140108T0600Z/
LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR
1122 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL AMOUNT
TO 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* 36 HOUR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES.

* NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

* WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO.

IMPACTS...

* SNOW-COVERED ROADS WILL RESULT IN TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS.

* VISIBILITY WILL FALL TO ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES.

* BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...PARTICULARLY AFFECTING WEST-EAST
ORIENTED ROADS.

* EXPOSURE TO SUCH BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE FROST
BITE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

* PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT
HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

MIZ076-082-083-060300-
/O.EXT.KDTX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140106T0900Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.WC.W.0001.140106T1200Z-140108T0600Z/
WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
1122 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL AMOUNT
TO 5 TO 9 INCHES.

* 36 HOUR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 11 INCHES.

* NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

* WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO.

IMPACTS...

* SNOW-COVERED ROADS WILL RESULT IN TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS.

* VISIBILITY WILL FALL TO ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES.

* BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...PARTICULARLY AFFECTING WEST-EAST
ORIENTED ROADS.

* EXPOSURE TO SUCH BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE FROST
BITE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

* PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT
HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

Toledo hourly forecast from 3:00 p.m. today to 2:00 p.m. Monday, issued by the Cleveland NWS:

Time	Temp	Wind	Wind Chill
3:00 pm	32 F	NE 7 mph	25 F
4:00 pm	32 F	NE 8 mph	24 F
5:00 pm	31 F	NNE 9 mph	23 F
6:00 pm	30 F	NNE 10 mph	22 F
7:00 pm	29 F	N 11 mph	20 F
8:00 pm	28 F	N 15 mph	17 F
9:00 pm	27 F	NNW 17 mph	14 F
10:00 pm	26 F	NW 20 mph	12 F
11:00 pm	25 F	NW 22 mph	10 F
12:00 am	23 F	NW 22 mph	8 F
1:00 am	22 F	WNW 22 mph	6 F
2:00 am	20 F	WNW 21 mph	4 F
3:00 am	17 F	W 18 mph	1 F
4:00 am	15 F	W 17 mph	-2 F
5:00 am	11 F	W 16 mph	-5 F
6:00 am	8 F	W 16 mph	-10 F
7:00 am	5 F	W 16 mph	-14 F
8:00 am	4 F	W 17 mph	-15 F
9:00 am	4 F	W 18 mph	-16 F
10:00 am	3 F	W 20 mph	-18 F
11:00 am	3 F	W 21 mph	-19 F
12:00 pm	2 F	W 22 mph	-20 F
1:00 pm	1 F	W 23 mph	-21 F
2:00 pm	1 F	W 23 mph	-22 F

Toledo air temps, not wind chills, are expected to be below zero by dinner time on Monday.

5:00 pm : -4
8:00 pm : -10
11:00 pm : -12

Dropping to around -15 at daybreak on Tuesday with wind chill temps around -40.

short term forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
252 pm est sun jan 5 2014

ohz003-006-052045-
wood oh-lucas oh-
252 pm est sun jan 5 2014

.now...

heavier snow will be moving into the area through 5pm.
locations that will be affected include bowling green...
custar...sylvania...toledo and waterville.

snowfall rates of inch an hour are expected through 5pm.

untreated roads will become snow covered and slick in spots. drive
with caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.

thompson

Storm Prediction Center issued a new mesoscale discussion at 3:49 pm EST about the heavy snow that includes some of the Toledo area.

concerning heavy snow for scntrl through ecntrl il...cntrl and nrn ind...nwrn oh and srn lower mi
bands of moderate to heavy snow will develop newd through scntrl and ecntrl il...cntrl and nrn ind...nwrn oh and srn lower mi into early evening. snowfall rates may locally exceed 1 inch per hour within the heavier snow bands.

fxus63 kiwx 052329
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
629 pm est sun jan 5 2014

synopsis...
issued at 520 am est sun jan 5 2014
a strong system will bring heavy snow to the area today and into
this evening. amounts of 8 to 16 inches are possible. a winter
storm warning is in effect through this evening. extremely cold
arctic air will move in behind the system through early next week
with wind chills of around 40 below zero sunday night into
tuesday. a wind chill warning is in effect for this period. low
temperatures tonight will crash to between 5 below zero and 18
below zero by daybreak monday.
&&

short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 350 pm est sun jan 5 2014
height of historic winter storm now well underway across the region
at press time. culmination of factors supporting widespread
accumulations of 10-16 inches. coupled upper level jet streaks
favoring effective divergence aloft with southern branch
strengthening to 170+ kts overnight and showing a great deal of
cyclonic curvature. low to midlevel fgen/deformation response is
superb and the track of the surface low is nearly ideal for a long
duration of heavy snow in our cwa. water vapor loop shows polar
vortex phasing with potent southern stream pv anomaly and rapidly
becoming negatively tilted. this is not only supporting rapid
deepening of the surface cyclone but also pulling it a bit to the
left as previously discussed. this has allowed surface temperatures
to climb to around 32f and with warmer profiles aloft...caused snow
ratios to be only around 10:1 for our central and southeast
counties. this has been one potential limiting factor but has been
more than made up for with impressive qpf totals. moisture
convergence is excellent with 280k mixing ratios approaching 4 g/kg.
elevated instability above roughly 600mb is also aiding highly
efficient uvm and bands of heavy snowfall are clearly evident on
radar. snowfall rates have exceeded 2"/hr in these bands. expect
status quo to continue for another 4-6 hours and with accumulations
already exceeding 8 inches in some spots...a few storm totals in
excess of 16 inches may be possible by later tonight. cyclone will
lift rapidly northeast by 03z though and expect most of the synoptic
snow to wind down shortly thereafter.
one of the biggest questions regarding this storm has been the
potential for blizzard conditions. explosive cyclogenesis now
underway will lead to a very strong isallobaric component to the
wind by later this evening. coupled with a tight gradient and
relatively deep mixing heights...this will lead to a brief period of
30-35 mph gusts while new snow is still falling this evening. this
will lead to near blizzard conditions with widespread blowing and
drifting snow. visibility requirement of less than a quarter mile
for three consecutive hours is extremely tough to get in this part
of the country though and only one upstream station (kcmi) has
reported such a low visibility. after further collaboration with
neighboring offices...decided to hold off on a blizzard warning
unless new observational evidence suggests otherwise this evening.
significant impacts will continue through the overnight and into
tomorrow. modest lake response expected given strong instability and
lingering synoptic moisture. winds will quickly back to a westerly
direction this evening and the bulk of the additional accumulation
overnight and into tomorrow will be mainly confined north of the
toll road. increasing dry air advection and low snow ratios will
limit additional accumulations to around 2-4 inches. biggest hazard
will be the dangerously cold temperatures/wind chills. still
expecting lows to plummet into the mid teens below zero by late
tonight with no diurnal recovery tomorrow in the face of strong caa.
wind speeds of 20-30 mph will generate wind chill temperatures of
around -40f. no changes to wind chill warning necessary.
&&

long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 350 pm est sun jan 5 2014
historic/potentially life-threatening cold will give way to
significant warming by end of the week. only minor changes made
given ongoing winter storm.
period will start with the much advertised core of arctic air
overhead as lows still on target to drop to 15 to 20 below with wind
chills of 30 to 45 below into mid morning tuesday. in addition
extreme instability will be ongoing over the lake as delta t's all
the way to 700 mb top out around 30 c with inversion hgts around
8000 ft. light to moderate snow should be occurring but general
westerly flow will keep most snow confined to far southern lower
michigan. have increased pops into cat range across n berrien county
in most favorable area and nudged up accums a touch. one more bitter
cold day in store for tuesday although some areas will be a good 5
to 10 degrees warmer than monday. nevertheless..only locations
along the lake will see temps climb above zero. winds will still be
in the 10 to 20 mph range will result in widespread drifting...but
actual blowing snow/reduced vsbys will probably be isolated. for now
will leave out of grids for both monday night and tuesday.
center of polar vortex will retreat north to east of hudson bay
allowing hgts to increase and the start of a warmup which looks to
last through the long term period. this will bring challenges of its
own as active flow continues with several waves moving in for
chances for snow or eventually a mixed bag. in addition to precip
chances temps should rise to above freezing for highs fri-sun into
the 30s. euro guidance continues to point towards highs in the 40s
and mex now trying follow suit. while not impossible...amount of
snowpack across the area will likely limit full
potential...especially friday with best chance for 40s possibly by
sunday. the increasing temps will cause a release of the snowpack
and will result in rising river levels and increased concerns for
both river and low lying flooding. have generally kept forecast as
is through this time frame with timing/track of each wave likely to
vary over the next several days. for now with so many other details
in the hwo...will hold off on mention in hwo as duration of release
could be over a long enough period to keep risks minimized.
&&

aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z monday evening)
issued at 627 pm est sun jan 5 2014
intense commahead deformation zone conts acrs nrn in this evening
w/heavy snow in most locations including the terminals. lifr conds
in heavy snow will cont through approx 02z bfr diminishing rapidly
through 06z. deformation band just now exiting east of ksbn but
rapid upstream dvlpmnt of intense lk enhanced band will swing into
ksbn vcnty twd 02-03z but will await evolution nxt few hours and
reaccess. hwvr winds ramp exponentially with gusts to 35kts likely
based on upstream obs and shld yield a prolonged pd of blsn
overnight which shld improve some mon am.
&&

iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter storm warning until 1 am est /midnight cst/ monday for
inz003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
wind chill warning from 1 am est /midnight cst/ monday to 8 pm
est /7 pm cst/ tuesday for inz003>009-012>018-020-022>027-
032>034.
mi...winter storm warning until 1 am est monday for miz077>081.
wind chill warning from 1 am monday to 8 pm est tuesday for
miz077>081.
oh...winter storm warning until 1 am est monday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
wind chill warning from 1 am monday to 8 pm est tuesday for
ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
lm...heavy freezing spray warning until 4 am est tuesday for lmz043-
046.
gale warning until 4 am est tuesday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
synopsis...lashley
short term...agd
long term...fisher
aviation...t
visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx (all lower case)
follow us on facebook...twitter...and youtube at:
www.facebook.com/us.nationalweatherservice.northernin.gov
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/nwsnorthernindiana

I shoveled snow from 9:45 pm to Midnight. Temps were around 25 when I started and 20 degrees when I ended. I'm also glad that I completed this on Sunday night. The blowing snow will create some additional work on Monday, but it will be nothing like the chore on Sunday night. The snow was 8 to 9 inches deep, and it was heavy.

It snowed hard for much of the time that I was outside. Another 2.5 to 3.0 inches of snow fell between 8:00 p.m. and 11:30 p.m. Total snowfall for Sun, Jan 5, 2014 that I measured was 8.5 to 9.0 inches. The snow ended around 11:00 to 11:30 p.m. The winds increased, creating at times large clouds of blowing snow that rolled across the landscape. It will probably be tough in the rural areas west and north of Toledo.

I've got some big walls of snow piled along the sidewalks and driveway and along my shoveled paths through the backyard to the bird feeding areas. This has to be approaching the most snow that I've seen in the Toledo area during my time that I've lived in northwest Ohio.

Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending upon your viewpoint), the weather warms up later this week, fouling things up. High temps are forecast to be 35 to 40 degrees each day from Friday through next Monday.

From JR's : articles
7845 words - 49952 chars - 43 min read
created on Jan 05, 2014 at 01:34:38 pm
updated on Jan 06, 2014 at 01:41:31 am - #
source - versions

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