Jan 5-7, 2014 Weather

#weather - #toledo

fxus61 kcle 051544
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1044 am est sun jan 5 2014

synopsis...
low pressure over the lower mississippi valley will strengthen and
move northeast across the area this evening. arctic high pressure
will drop southeast out of central canada monday and cover much of
the central and southeastern states by tuesday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
significant changes were made to hourly temperatures and
consequently precip type...wind chills and snow accumulation
through the next 24 to 36 hours. warm air is mixing in across the
east with a period of rain likely as precip moves in this
afternoon and this evening. no change to the "big picture"
however with very cold air...snow and blowing snow as well as
dangerously low wind chills moving in overnight.
original...currently low pressure center in central arkansas with
the arctic boundary into central lower michigan. light snow is
just now reaching into nw oh. forecast question of the day what
will be the track and timing of the low. used the gfs solution
since gfs and ecmwf very close. both models have the low reaching
central ohio toward 00z. that will allow a warm surge across ne
oh/nw pa this afternoon so that any precipitation this afternoon
will probably start as a period of rain. with dew points in the
teens and 20s evaporational cooling will help transition precip to
snow by late afternoon. heaviest snows will be from late afternoon
through the evening hours when the low tracks across ne oh and nw
pa. low forecast to reach eastern lake erie toward midnight local.
expect 4 to 8 inches of snow across nw oh today...while in the east
1 to locally 3 inches...depending on how long it takes to change
over to all snow.
fyi...winter storm headlines will imply/contain any wind chill
warning criteria so both headlines will not exist at the same time
and place.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through tuesday night/...
little change in the short term forecast. arctic front moves
through sunday night plunging the area into the deep freeze. expect
falling temperatures during the day monday. temperatures will
plunge to -10 to -20 degrees monday night...with wind chill values
of -35 to -40f. the last wind chill warning issued by this office
was 16 january 2009.
synoptic snow will end most locations by monday...however lake
effect across the snowbelt is expected to continue into wednesday.
&&

long term /wednesday through saturday/...
temperatures will will slowly moderate through sunday. highs are on
track to break 40 degrees in a few spots as early as friday...but
the guidance could be a bit on the high side given the amount of
snow that will be on the ground. so there will be a better chance of
breaking 40 saturday and sunday. the next chance for precip remains
thursday into friday...at least according to the gfs...which brings
a weak low pressure center up the spine of an inverted trough
towards ohio. the ecmwf does not jump on this feature and instead
indicates a low pressure system will develop over the dakotas and
spread precip across ohio for the first half of the weekend. with
overnight lows progged to be around freezing...rain could switch
over to snow or a wintry mix after sunset.
&&

aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
snow is increasing in intensity and coverage along a stalled cold
front to the west of toledo near the ohio/indiana border. so far
no restrictions to visibility at tol and fdy despite intermittent
snow showers. by early morning the snow pushes east and will fill
in across northern ohio...leading to ifr restrictions for most of
the day. considerable accumulation of snow is
expected...especially at toledo. eastern sites will likely see
less snow as rain mixes in and the front accelerates east.
approaching midnight the wind begins to gust to 25 to 30 knots
from the west behind the front...causing blowing and drifting
snow.
outlook...occasional non vfr in lake effect snow across ne ohio
and nw pa for monday and tuesday. more non vfr possible wednesday.
&&

marine...
as low pressure clears northern ohio and tracks towards the
northeast the wind will wrap around from the southwest...becoming
gusty by early monday morning. by mid-morning the wind will be gale
force over the lake. combined with frigid cold
temperatures...freezing spray will accumulate on objects on or near
the lake. upgrades to the gale and freezing spray watches will be
considered in the short term. by wednesday the pressure gradient
relaxes and high pressure settles in across the southeastern u.s.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 9 am est
wednesday for ohz011>014-089.
winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 5 pm est monday
for ohz020>023-029>033-037-038-047.
wind chill warning from 5 pm monday to 9 am est wednesday for
ohz020>023-029>033-037-038-047.
winter storm warning until 4 am est monday for ohz003-006>010-
017>019-027-028-036.
wind chill warning from 4 am monday to 9 am est wednesday for
ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036.
pa...winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 9 am est
wednesday for paz001>003.
marine...gale watch from late tonight through tuesday evening for
lez061-142>149-162>169.
heavy freezing spray watch from late tonight through tuesday
evening for lez061-144>149-164>169.
&&
$$
synopsis...djb
near term...djb/tk
short term...djb
long term...mayers
aviation...mayers
marine...mayers