Toledo Weather - Sat, Feb 8, 2014

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Feb 8, 2014 6:05 am

Today: A chance of snow, mainly after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 16. Wind chill values as low as -9. Southwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tonight: Snow likely, mainly after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 11. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Sunday: A chance of snow, mainly before 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 23. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -6. West wind around 9 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 16. West wind 6 to 9 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -4.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 14.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -1.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 22.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14.

Thursday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28.

---

fxus61 kcle 081146
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
646 am est sat feb 8 2014

synopsis...
arctic high pressure over the ohio valley will move off the east
coast today. this will allow a low pressure system to move across
the area late saturday night into sunday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
no significant changes for 615 am update.
original discussion...
another chilly morning...but conditions remain just below wind
chill advisory criteria. the center of the arctic high just to
the west...the models continue to move the high across the
forecast area today then off the east coast this evening. as the
high shifts east of area this afternoon it opens the door for a
chance of light snow late this afternoon. currently light snow
into tennessee with a few flurries moving into western illinois.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through tuesday night/...
models a little slower with the weak low pressure system...holding
it off until sunday morning now instead of saturday night. that
said light snow will start this evening and move across the forecast
area overnight with snowfall amounts around an inch. surge of
moisture sunday with the low will likely produce another inch or two
sunday...mainly in the morning.
potential for some lake effect sunday night after the system moves
through with a west flow and 850 mb temps around -16c. marginal
conditions but could see another couple of inches in the snowbelt.
below normal temperatures will continue into mid week another arctic
high moves over the area monday night into tuesday.
&&

long term /wednesday through friday/...
generally a lower amplitude pattern progged by the models the
second half of next week but the trough remains in the east with a
flatter ridge out west. this opens the door for a series of short
waves to cross the pacific northwest and zip across the country.
this presents the models with a whole series of strength...timing...
and tracking problems.
wednesday should hang on to high pressure and the forecast will be
dry with moderating temperatures. most of the models try to develop
a surface low by thursday...most likely centered somewhere along the
east coast or southeast coast...probably south and east of the local
area. a cold front should cross the great lakes later in the week. i
suspect that it will take until thursday night or friday to approach
the area but the current forecast has a chance of snow on thursday
and a cannot rule out a faster scenario...perhaps more of a phasing
with the southeast system. will leave a chance of snow/snow showers
in the forecast thursday through friday noting the low confidence in
the timing.
the moderating trend in temperatures will likely continue later next
week and we could actually sneak near or above freezing thursday
and/or friday depending on the timing of the next front.
&&

aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
first weak surge of warm advection clouds/overrunning spreading
from the midwest across the forecast area this morning. we will
mostly see an increase in mid clouds and then a ceiling develop
between 045-065. cannot rule out a passing snow flurry/snow shower
but will only mention it at kfdy this morning as we track a batch
of light snow on the radar across indiana. the snow should
evaporate as it comes east this morning. the next short wave will
bring an increasing chance for light snow this evening into
tonight and sunday morning from west to east across the area.
eventually the ceilings and visibilities will likely drop to ifr
as the steadier snow gets going.
outlook...non vfr sunday into monday.
&&

marine...
the brisk southwest flow will gradually diminish today as high
pressure builds east across the ohio valley. the eastern basin of
the lake at the end of the fetch will hang on to 15 to 20 knots for
a while today. the surface high pressure will be east of lake erie
on sunday but the gradient will remain light until the next arctic
high pressure area begins to spread east sunday night and monday.
the next push of arctic air will not be as strong as recent systems
and the wind should become light by tuesday.

---

Forecast.io Toledo hi and lo temp predictions as of 7:25 a.m.

• today, Sat, Feb 8 : 18 and 3
• Sun, Feb 9 : 23 and 14
• Mon, Feb 10 : 17 and 3
• Tue, Feb 11 : 13 and -6
• Wed, Feb 12 : 22 and -2
• Thu, Feb 13 : 36 and 18
• Fri, Feb 14 : 33 and 16
• Sat, Feb 15 : 27 and 9

---

short term forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
824 am est sat feb 8 2014

ohz003-006>008-017-018-027-081445-
wyandot oh-hancock oh-seneca oh-wood oh-lucas oh-ottawa oh-
sandusky oh-
824 am est sat feb 8 2014

.now...

light snow will be spreading into the area through 10am.
snow accumulations will be less than a half an inch.

locations that will be affected by the snow include bowling green...
custar...elmore...findlay...fostoria...sylvania...tiffin...toledo
and waterville.

---

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
341 pm est sat feb 8 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-092045-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
crawford pa-
341 pm est sat feb 8 2014

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...this afternoon and tonight.

hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.days two through seven...sunday through friday.

a couple of inches of snow may fall on sunday across the forecast
area and then 1 to 3 inches of snow may fall in the snow belt
sunday night into monday.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

fxus61 kcle 090007
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
707 pm est sat feb 8 2014

synopsis...
high pressure over ohio will move east tonight as a cold front
approaches the area and moves through on sunday. a ridge of high
pressure will begin building in on tuesday. another weather system
will affect the area late in the week.
&&

near term /until 6 am sunday morning/...
weak impulse is moving south of lake michigan this evening with
lift spreading into nw ohio. this has caused snow to develop with
visibilities dipping to under a 1/2 mile at times. at this point
it appears that the snow will have a difficult time spreading
eastward as it interacts with some drier air. have trimmed amounts
east but around an inch looks reasonable across the west half of
the area.
previous discussion...
several impulses will affect the region tonight with light snow.
the first impulse will move through this evening. clouds should
thicken in the east somewhat quickly this evening. the second
impulse will arrive over northwest ohio very late tonight. there
will be kind of a break in the snow later tonight between
impulses. the snow in the eastern areas will be mainly early
tonight. at this time going with an inch or less. lows are tough
tonight with mild warm advection. used a blend of guidance.
&&

short term /6 am sunday morning through tuesday night/...
the next stronger impulse/cold front will move through on
sunday...the area will be in the left front quad of the jet. this
may give 1 to 2.5 inches of snow. it will be somewhat of a quick
shot of snow. some lake effect snow showers will develop sunday
night and linger into monday. at this time a the northwest flow
and the lake and 850 mb temperature difference near 16c only a few
inches of snow. this will have to be watched.
dry tuesday and tuesday night as a ridge is building in.
temperatures for this period are tough...depending on how quickly
the clouds clear and if the winds become light enough.
&&

long term /wednesday through saturday/...
upper level pattern is a changing. for the time being that is.
models suggest upper level flow should become somewhat zonal from
west to east across the lower 48 states. however a very broad trough
will move east across the area wednesday into thursday with an
associated positive vorticity maximum. however...feature is expected
to be limited in moisture and will likely only bring clouds to the
region.
yet another potent little positive vorticity maximum and associated
surface low pressure will race east into the region thursday night.
this feature packs a bit of a punch with moisture and will spread
some light snow into the forecast area thursday night into friday.
unfortunately...the seasonable temperatures are not going to last
very long because a digging trough will race into the area by the
weekend and this will set the stage for a low pressure system to
move east into the region and usher another shot of colder air back
the region. upper level trough will become negatively tilted as it
reaches the great lakes and really ramp up the positive vorticity
advection. this results in fairly rapid cyclogenesis as low rounds
the base of the trough into the lower great lakes on saturday and
then lifts northeast. the low will bring even more snow to the
region in the latter portions of the forecast period.
temperatures will be on the upswing in the zonal flow to more
seasonable levels for highs and lows but will drop back a bit by the
end of the period in the cold air advection.
&&

aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
one brief shot...3 or 4 hours...of snow for late evening. this
will produce ifr in snow for northwest ohio...but will struggle to
stay at that intensity level as this batch of snow shifts east
into drier air. after that there will be a lull and ceilings may
be variable between mvfr and vfr. next round of snow arrives for
sunday morning...again working its way west to east during the
morning and afternoon hours. this is looking to accumulate an inch
or two and area will have a period of ifr. winds will be
light/variable overnight...but develop a westerly direction
sunday.
outlook...non vfr sunday night into monday night especially in
northeast ohio and nw pa. non vfr possible thursday.
&&

marine...
winds should be fairly light through tonight and then begin to
increase a bit sunday night as high pressure moves off to the east.
winds then diminish to light and variable by monday. this fairly
light flow continues into tuesday with a slight increase by
wednesday into thursday out of the south as high pressure moves off
the east coast and weak low approaches from the west wednesday.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...kieltyka
near term...kieltyka/mullen
short term...kieltyka
long term...lombardy
aviation...oudeman
marine...lombardy

#toledo - #weather