Toledo Weather - Sun, Feb 9, 2014

short term forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
533 am est sun feb 9 2014

lez143-144-ohz003-006>011-017>021-027>031-091215-
reno beach to the islands oh-the islands to vermilion oh-lucas-
wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-hancock-seneca-huron-
medina-summit-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...findlay...tiffin...
norwalk...medina...akron...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...
mansfield...ashland...wooster
533 am est sun feb 9 2014

.now...

light to moderate snow will continue across northwest and north
central ohio through the morning hours. snow accumulations of a
half inch per hour are possible in the heavier snow bands. motorists
should use caution as visibilities may quickly drop below 1 mile.

---

Feb 9, 2014 6:52 am
Weather : Light Snow Fog/Mist
Temperature : 14 F
Humidity : 88%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.05 in
Dewpoint: 11 F
Visibility : 1.50 statute miles

(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Feb 9, 2014 6:53 am
Weather : Light Snow Fog/Mist
Temperature : 15 F
Humidity : 84%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.07 in
Dewpoint: 11 F
Visibility : 0.75 statute miles

(near Lambertville)
Feb 9, 2014 7:15 am
Weather : Light Snow
Temperature : 18 F
Humidity : 79%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.06 in
Dewpoint: 12 F
Visibility : 1.75 statute miles

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Feb 9, 2014 6:02 am

Today: Snow, mainly before 3pm. High near 22. Light southwest wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -8. West wind 7 to 9 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 16. Wind chill values as low as -8. West wind 7 to 11 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -3. Wind chill values as low as -12. West wind around 6 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 14. Light and variable wind.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -1.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 21.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13.

Thursday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday: Cloudy, with a high near 28.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28.

---

fxus61 kcle 091110
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
610 am est sun feb 9 2014

synopsis...
a quick moving low pressure system will move across the area today
dragging a cold front across the area. high pressure will move
across the lower lakes tuesday...then move off the new england coast
wednesday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
speeded up timing of the second wave of snow over the area for the
630 update.
original discussion...
first wave of snow moved through as jet max moved east. next wave
also associated with next little jet max just moving into western
ohio. will spread across entire area this morning. expect a quick
couple of inches this morning with the snow diminishing from the
west during the afternoon hour. stayed close to mav temps for today.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through wednesday night/...
left likely pops going in the snowbelt overnight as the 850 mb temps
dip to -16 and secondary trough swinging across eastern lake erie
overnight. but even with that...it is so dry and with lake frozen
dont expect much more than an inch or two.
tuesday and wednesday are dry but continued cold as another arctic
high moves across the lower great lakes. models diverge
significantly by wednesday night. gfs moves weak front through the
area with coastal low off georgia coast. ecmwf on the other hand
much slower with the front and has the coastal low off the mid
atlantic coast by thursday morning. for now will just continue with
the dry gfs forecast.
&&

long term /thursday through saturday/...
the extended forecast continues to vary from run to run and model to
model. the flow is progged to become more zonal with relatively fast
moving systems. heights are progged to rise slowly across much of
the country and pacific air should gradually replace the arctic air
but there remains a trough over the northeastern states through next
weekend.
the ecmwf is the only model deepening the surface low so quickly mid
week. the other models continue to develop a surface low along the
southeast coast with the impact more along the coast which is
reasonable. it is likely that several clipper type low pressure
systems will cross the great lakes late in the week. the next system
would seem on track for thursday night into friday. another wave
would be likely over the weekend but not sure what track it would
take or the relative strength. will keep a chance of snow/snow
showers next weekend.
not much confidence in the temperature forecast which will still be
somewhat below normal. there remains a wide range of possible
temperatures late in the week depending on how much arctic air can
hang on or how fast the moderating temperatures can move in.
&&

aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
conditions improving as one impulse exits. some residual light
lift may keep flurries going most of the night with only
occasional dips into mvfr. kept the timing for the next impulse
for the daytime sunday. this round has better moisture with it and
will have ifr in snow for several hours as it works its way across
the region. this is looking like it will accumulate a couple of
inches. light/variable winds overnight will develop a westerly
direction in the afternoon. snow exits for evening...but mvfr
ceilings may linger...especially downwind of the lake.
outlook...non vfr sunday night into monday night especially in
northeast ohio and nw pa. non vfr possible thursday.
&&

marine...
the surface high is just east of lake erie and a light southeast to
east flow will continue to veer to the south this morning. the
gradient is quite light for the time being. a weak low pressure area
will cross the lake midday and afternoon and winds will pick up a
bit from the west behind the system. more arctic high pressure will
build across the midwest and lower great lakes early in the week.
winds will lighten back up by tuesday. we should see a wind shift
back around from the south tuesday night into wednesday. a couple of
clipper low pressure systems will cross the lakes later in the week.
the models are not in agreement of the strength or track of the
systems so hard to gauge how much wind we may have to deal with on
lake erie just yet.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

---

forecast.io hi-lo pred

feb 9 : 23 and 12
feb 10 : 16 and 4
feb 11 : 12 and -4
feb 12 : 20 and -5
feb 13 : 35 and 12
feb 14 : 35 and 14
feb 15 : 24 and 9
feb 16 : 27 and 12

---

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
840 am est sun feb 9 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-101345-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
crawford pa-
840 am est sun feb 9 2014

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

snow will be tapering off today except in the snow belt where lake
effect snow showers will develop by this evening. total snowfall
including last nights snow and todays snowfall will generally
range from 2 to 4 inches.

.days two through seven...monday through saturday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

special weather statement
national weather service cleveland oh
1001 am est sun feb 9 2014

ohz003-006>009-017>019-027-028-036-037-091715-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-
crawford-marion-morrow-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...
upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...marion...mount gilead
1001 am est sun feb 9 2014

the snow will taper off this morning...additional snowfall between
10 am and 1 pm will be around an inch. untreated roads will be
slippery and motorists will have to use caution.

---

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
353 pm est sun feb 9 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-102100-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
crawford pa-
353 pm est sun feb 9 2014

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...this afternoon and tonight.

hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.days two through seven...monday through saturday.

wind chill readings late monday evening into early tuesday morning
will be in the 10 below to 15 below range mainly over northwest
and north central ohio.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Feb 9, 2014 6:39 pm

Tonight: A chance of flurries before midnight, then a chance of flurries after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -9. West wind 7 to 10 mph.

Monday: A chance of flurries before 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 15. Wind chill values as low as -9. West wind 7 to 11 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -2. Wind chill values as low as -13. West wind around 9 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 12. Wind chill values as low as -14. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -5. Light south wind.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 23.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13.

Thursday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

---

fxus61 kcle 092354
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
654 pm est sun feb 9 2014

synopsis...
a cold front will continue to move east of the area tonight. a
ridge will begin building into the ohio valley overnight and remain
across the area through wednesday night before shifting east. a
cold front will move across the region late in the work week.
&&

near term /until 6 am monday morning/...
5h jet moving just south of the great lakes. weak lift on the
north side of the jet will assist in keeping some light snow
showers/flurries going through much of the night. lake effect snow
may occur overnight but it will be on the light side. best chances
of seeing over an inch will ba across inland nw pa...especially
in the vicinity from edinboro to corry to the i-86 corridor.
previous discussion...
the synoptic snow associated with the cold front has moved
through. some flurries or light snow showers are lingering late
this afternoon. some decrease in clouds were occurring over nw
ohio...but they should fill back in.
the question is how much lake effect snow will occur over ne oh
and nw pa tonight in the northwest flow with the lake mostly ice
covered. at this time will keep likely pops along the lake shore
but with the inversion low and the moisture barely adequate but
the lake and 850 mb temperature difference near 19c will only
forecast around an inch. some question whether the pop should be
more in the chance category. the other question is how far west to
carry the threat of snow showers. with the lake ice covered kept
the threat of snow showers mainly from cle east.
elsewhere some flurries could occur this evening...otherwise
trying to deal with the clouds. the clouds should decrease over
northwest ohio late tonight but some mid and high clouds headed
toward the area. went a little toward the warmer side of guidance
over the entire area with some clouds around. if the clouds
decrease more over nw oh...it could be a little colder there than
expected.
&&

short term /6 am monday morning through wednesday night/...
some lake effect snow showers continuing over ne oh and nw pa into
tuesday. the moisture is limited much of the time and the inversion
is low. so kept likely pops for monday and then back off to chance
pops. still the question how far west and south to carry the snow
shower chance...kept it more near the typical snow belt area.
elsewhere dry as the ridge builds into the ohio valley and doesn't
move east until wednesday.
used a blend of guidance for the temperature forecast especially
the lows. we could be close to wind chill advisory criteria monday
night over nw ohio...this will have to be watched.
&&

long term /thursday through sunday/...
model differ on surface features thru the period. looks like some
kind of low will track across the lakes followed by reinforcing push
of colder air. due to general upper troughing through sun will keep
chance pops going for snow while keeping temps below normal.
&&

aviation /00z monday through friday/...
what remains for the rest of the evening is flurries and
conditions that will vary between mvfr and vfr. some additional
lake effect shsn possible off of the lake toward erie into monday.
but with nothing to really pinpoint...have chosen to sit with mvfr
conditions. low level clouds may try to clear from fdy to mfd
overnight...and possibly fill back in on monday. elsewhere mvfr
will be most likely for the overnight and monday. overall high
pressure will be trying to work into the ohio valley.
outlook...non-vfr conditions will persist into monday night ne
oh/nw pa. non-vfr may redevelop late thursday.
&&

marine...
west to wnw winds of about 10 to 20 knots should be common into mon
eve until high pressure move over the lake to produce light and
variable winds for tue into tue night. the high moves off to the
east tue night thru wed which will lead to south winds around 10 to
15 knots wed. the models differ by thu so not sure which way to go
but for now will go with hpc to maintain collaboration with
surrounding forecasts.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...kieltyka
near term...kieltyka/mullen
short term...kieltyka
long term...adams
aviation...oudeman
marine...adams

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