Toledo Weather - Fri, Feb 14, 2014

short term forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
408 am est fri feb 14 2014

ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037-141030-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-
crawford-richland-marion-morrow-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...
upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...marion...
mount gilead
408 am est fri feb 14 2014

.now...
a cold front will move across the region early this morning. as
the front passes and winds shift to the west they will briefly
increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 45 mph possible.

these stronger winds should decrease by sunrise but will remain 10
to 20 mph through the day.

---

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
431 am est fri feb 14 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-151100-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
crawford pa-
431 am est fri feb 14 2014

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.days two through seven...saturday through thursday.

the region will see a warming trend starting monday and continuing
through thursday. temperatures may very well be topping 50 degrees
by thursday. the biggest concern with the warming...snowmelt...and
any potential rainfall will be for ice jam flooding. other
nuisance flooding will also be possible. continue to stay informed
about the forecast for the coming week as we are able to put more
detail into the forecast.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

Toledo Express Airport
Feb 14, 2014 7:52 am
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 24 F
Humidity : 84%
Wind Speed : W 16 mph - Gust 25 mph
Barometer : 29.58 in
Dewpoint: 20 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 11 F

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Feb 14, 2014 6:52 am

Today: A chance of flurries before 1pm, then a chance of flurries after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. West wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Tonight: A chance of flurries before 7pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -6. Northwest wind 10 to 13 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 18. Wind chill values as low as -9. Northwest wind around 10 mph.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 12. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: A chance of snow, mainly before 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday Night: A slight chance of snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Washington's Birthday: A chance of snow before 2pm, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday Night: Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 38.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 41.

Wednesday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 54. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

---

fxus61 kcle 141139
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
639 am est fri feb 14 2014

synopsis...
a warm front moving across northeast ohio and nw pa will be
quickly followed by a cold front as a clipper low moves across the
great lakes this morning. another low will move across the lower
ohio valley and kentucky later today. high pressure will build
across the region for saturday with another weak clipper moving
across ohio saturday night and early sunday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
center of clipper low over lower michigan early this morning.
temperatures with its minor warm air push are reaching the
freezing mark. temperatures will still rise a bit more across the
east...but the cold front quickly follows today. therefore for
places like cleveland and wooster...they are at their highs for
today now. not a huge drop off for today...but the majority of the
day will be in the 20s. light snow and flurries working its way
across the lake and into the lakeshore counties. just a brief shot
of snow otherwise for much of the day not too much moisture to
work with and worded today mainly as a chance of flurries for
most. a location here or there may have a dusting and have allowed
for a couple tenths of accumulation to no more than an inch for
ne oh/nw pa. southern system looks to be too far south and may
only bring some very light snow into the southern tier of
counties.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through monday night/...
by this evening northern clipper will have been absorbed into low
across new england. southern clipper will keep moving to the mid
atlantic. expecting little help from the lake...h8 temps marginal
and lake iced over well. do get a little convergence this evening
for ne oh/nw pa while there is still some moisture to work with.
therefore have continued the 30 to 40 percent snow chances...again
with only light accumulations if any. by late friday night and
saturday morning ridge begins to build in and any remaining
snow/flurries will come to an end. this will also help allow
temperatures across the west get back into single digits friday
night. cool but fair saturday.
next clipper will be quick to move across saturday night/sunday
morning. again not too much moisture with this...snow around...but
limited amounts. high pressure and even better ridging move into
the area sunday and sunday night. still running below normal...but
no different than we have been experiencing lately.
next clipper in the series arrives for monday as the flow aloft is
trying to become more zonal and therefore closer to normal
temperatures. expecting temperatures to get above freezing monday
and may very well have some rain as the precip type for a time
during the day with this system. high builds quickly to our
south monday night and no real push of cold air...finally.
&&

long term /tuesday through thursday/...
low pressure will be east of the region by tuesday morning with any
precipitation well to the east. we will then shift to a pattern that
will bring warmer air back into the area for the middle and end of
next week. increased warm advection and weak ripples of energy
moving through an increasing southwesterly middle level flow may
bring some light precipitation to the region tuesday night into
early wednesday morning. it appears the precipitation will be very
light but we will have to monitor surface temperatures closely if it
ends up being liquid falling to the surface. the region will
continue to warm into thursday as low pressure moves closer. still
some timing differences in the models on when the heaviest rainfall
will occur but all indicate it should be thursday into thursday
night.
tuesday will be the coldest day next week with highs in the middle
to upper 30s. the warming continues into thursday when highs will
make a run at the middle...maybe upper 50s. this will all hinge on
how much the snowpack erodes through the week. in any event it will
be much warmer than the region has seen over the last few weeks.
the warmth and rainfall will raise concerns about flooding near any
of the rivers and creeks across the region. we will continue to
monitor for the potential of ice jam flooding over the next week.
&&

aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
mvfr ceilings have spread across most of the region as a cold
front moves across northern ohio this morning. the front as of
1130z was located near a kcle to kbjj to kvtz line. ifr conditions
will occur with the heavier returns on radar. it appears that it
will be short lived at most locations with 20 to maybe 40 minutes
of visibilities dipping to as low as 3/4 of a mile. the lower
visibilities will be near and north of a line from kcle to kakr to
kyng. keri will see the ifr conditions persist the longest with a
couple hours possible.
gusty westerly winds will occur near the frontal boundary and may
reach 25 to 30 knots. the winds will decrease through mid afternoon.
winds will become northwest during the evening but should be under
10 knots.
outlook...non-vfr possible saturday through sunday and monday
afternoon into tuesday.
&&

marine...
a series of weak clipper storm systems will track across the region
today through saturday night. the strongest piece of jet energy will
pass today with westerly winds increasing in the wake of a cold
front. winds will likely increase to 25 to 30 knots friday afternoon
into early saturday. high pressure will then increase its influence
over the lake into sunday. as the high moves off to the east sunday
night it will allow for increasing southerly winds on monday. the
next weak cold front should cross the lake on tuesday with gusty
westerly winds once again likely.

---

fzus51 kcle 140837
nshcle
nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
337 am est fri feb 14 2014
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
lez142>149-141515-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh-
avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-
on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny-
337 am est fri feb 14 2014

today...southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. cloudy. a
chance of flurries.

tonight...west winds 10 to 20 knots becoming northwest and
diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. mostly cloudy with a chance of snow.

saturday...northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. partly
sunny. a chance of snow showers in the morning.

saturday night...west winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest
10 knots or less. mostly cloudy. a chance of snow overnight.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for sunday through tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees...off cleveland 33
degrees and off erie 33 degrees.

---

Cle NWS info from this morning, Feb 14:

the region will see a warming trend starting monday and continuing through thursday. temperatures may very well be topping 50 degrees by thursday. the biggest concern with the warming...snowmelt...and any potential rainfall will be for ice jam flooding. other nuisance flooding will also be possible.

still some timing differences in the models on when the heaviest rainfall will occur but all indicate it should be thursday into thursday night.

Forecast for next week:

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 38.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 41.

Thursday: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 54. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

---

Forecast.io predictions:

• today, Feb 14 : 28 and 19
• Sat, Feb 15 : 19 and 11
• Sun, Feb 16 : 25 and 15
• Mon, Feb 17 : 35 and 10
• Tue, Feb 18 : 40 and 30
• Wed, Feb 19 : 40 and 29
• Thu, Feb 20 : 49 and 31
• Fri, Feb 21 : 43 and 34

#weather - #toledo