Toledo weather feb 20, 2014 cont

severe thunderstorm watch outline update for ws 18
nws storm prediction center norman ok
920 pm est thu feb 20 2014

severe thunderstorm watch 18 is in effect until 400 am est
for the following locations

ohc003-011-021-023-025-033-037-039-051-057-063-065-069-091-095-
101-107-109-113-123-125-135-137-143-147-149-159-161-165-171-173-
175-210900-
/o.new.kwns.sv.a.0018.140221t0220z-140221t0900z/

oh
. ohio counties included are

allen auglaize champaign
clark clermont crawford
darke defiance fulton
greene hancock hardin
henry logan lucas
marion mercer miami
montgomery ottawa paulding
preble putnam sandusky
seneca shelby union
van wert warren williams
wood wyandot

---

urgent - weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
938 pm est thu feb 20 2014

.a strong cold front will move across the region overnight.
southerly winds will increase this evening ahead of the front
with gusts in excess of 45 mph...especially across the hilltops
and the lakeshore portions of erie county pennsylvania. if a line
of stronger showers and thunderstorms develops ahead of and along
the front the region could see wind gusts of 50 mph or more.
winds will continue to gust to more than 45 mph on friday.

ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047-211045-
/o.ext.kcle.wi.y.0001.140221t0238z-140222t0000z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-
crawford-richland-ashland-marion-morrow-knox-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...
upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...ashland...marion...
mount gilead...mount vernon
938 pm est thu feb 20 2014

...wind advisory now in effect until 7 pm est friday...

• winds...southeast to south winds will increase to 20 to 35 mph
  with gusts in excess of 45 mph possible ahead of and along a
  cold front. as the front passes winds will shift to the
  southwest and continue to gust between 45 and 55 mph into
  friday.

• timing...late this evening through friday evening.

• impacts...a few limbs...trees and power lines may be blown
  down. light weight objects such as garbage cans will be blown
  around.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without
extra precautions. motorists in high profile vehicles should use
caution until the winds subside. stay tuned to noaa weather radio
for further details or updates.

---

fxus61 kcle 210234 aab
afdcle
area forecast discussion...updated
national weather service cleveland oh
934 pm est thu feb 20 2014

synopsis...
deepening low pressure over the mid mississippi valley will cross
the western great lakes tonight and move across ontario on friday.
the warm front will move north of the area this evening followed
quickly by the cold front tonight. a weak cold front will cross
the area on saturday. colder air will spread across much of the
plains and midwest and lower great lakes early next week.
&&

near term /until 6 am friday morning/...
severe tsra watch 18 across nw ohio valid until 4 am. cold front
now into eastern indiana and moving east near 40 knots. northern
end of squall line just south of fwa...but with 925 mb winds of 55
knots and warm frontal boundary still lingering across nrn ohio
potential for a few strong to severe tsra.
original discussion...
the last of the rain (the first batch) is lifting north across lake
erie. all of our meso models redevelop showers across western ohio
late this afternoon and early this evening but the better action is
showing across the mississippi valley as thunderstorms are already
racing northeast. this activity will get drawn north quickly
ahead of the front. not sure how much thunderstorms will get this
far north but there certainly is a chance given the low level jet
and the elevated instability. there is probably a better chance
for a quasi linear convective system (qlcs) of gusty showers just
ahead of or aligned with the cold front. these lines commonly
produce strong to damaging wind gusts. our synoptic models have
difficulty generating enough instability with the cold ground and
shallow inversions but when push comes to shove we can usually get
these winds to mix down with the frontal passage. the south winds
can mix down enough to catch down slope areas and hilltops as
well...especially near the lake erie lake shore. a wind advisory
remains in effect tonight and if necessary we will issue severe
thunderstorm warnings if we get a convective line.
the models will also struggle with the warm advection. just because
we have been slow to warm up during the day...we will get into the
south flow tonight ahead of the front. temperatures are in the 60s
across southern ohio during the afternoon and some parts of
northeast ohio will likely see 60f for an hour or two tonight ahead
of the cold front. the snow has been absorbing much of the rain and
will do so until the dew points rise tonight. then then snow pack
will begin to release all of its water. this will essentially cause
a flash melt of the remaining snow. depending on the amount of
additional qpf...which depends on the thunderstorms...we will see at
least minor to moderate flooding on many waterways. ice jam flooding
will almost certainly occur in some spots and exacerbate the
flooding. residents need to be on alert tonight. the flood watch
will remain in effect.
temperatures by morning should be back down into the lower 30s
across the i-75 corridor to the upper 30s/40 near the pa/oh
border.
&&

short term /6 am friday morning through sunday night/...
subsidence and pressure rises will move across the area on friday.
850 mb winds are progged about 45 knots. we could essentially mix
all of that down. will be close to high wind warning criteria
(50kts/58mph) across northwest ohio. we will certainly see advisory
wind gusts and it will likely be high end across northwest ohio and
near the lake erie lake shore. temperatures will sneak back up to the
lower/mid 40s on friday.
the next cold front is due on saturday. the models have been
consistent posting a little qpf with the front. will keep a low pop
chance for a few rain/snow showers. much the same on sunday. some of
the models develop just enough frontogenesis that i will keep a
small chance of snow showers. none of it should be a big deal. highs
still near 40 on saturday. colder by sunday with highs in the upper
20s to mid 30s on sunday.
&&

long term /monday through thursday/...
broad trough extending across the eastern two thirds of canada and
the northern united states will allow a vigorous positive vorticity
maximum to race east across the forecast area monday into monday
night. this feature will cause a low level jet to develop and move
through the area and would expect some jet dynamics to help enhance
the threat for some light snow. vorticity maximum pulls out to the
east and upper level trough will begin to flatten somewhat and allow
very weak ridging to move into the area by wednesday.
surface high pressure will move east across the ohio valley on
wednesday into wednesday night and bring some fair weather and drier
air back to the region. there is the possibility that flow could be
favorable for some lake effect snow in the northeast tuesday night
into wednesday night and then ending for thursday.
cold air advection returns and this will plunge temperatures back to
the below normal readings we have been seeing all winter. the upper
level pattern is relentless and shows no sign of breaking through
next weekend. actually...upper level ridge is expected to amplify
over the central united states and this will likely cause the trough
over the eastern united states to strengthen and cause deep south
cyclogenesis to occur. will have to monitor this to see if the storm
system takes a bit further north track into next weekend.
&&

aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
lots happening next 24 hours. currently low pressure over ern ia
with a warm front into north central ohio. north of the warm front
conditions drop to lifr and vfr south of the boundary. currently
lifr is restricted to far nwrn ohio with conditions rapidly
improving to vfr across the remainder of the area. will go with
ktol remaining ifr until after the cold front moves through during
the 04-06z time frame after which conditions improve to mvfr and
then eventually vfr by 15z. elsewhere will continue with vfr but
dropping to mvfr as a wave of showers moves into the area from
the ssw mid/late evening and the cold frontal passage from the
west...again after the 04z-06z time frame. friday conditions will
improve to vfr. another problem will be llws through the evening
in the warm frontal zone transitioning to moderate to strong wsw
winds to the surface late tonight and friday.
outlook...non-vfr ne oh/nw pa sat in -shsn. some non-vfr
possible again sunday and maybe snowbelt on mon.
&&

marine...
gale warnings remain in effect for tomorrow into tomorrow night as
low level jet pushes east into the region behind the cold front.
winds should diminish fairly quickly late friday night into
saturday. the flow will remain relatively quiet through sunday and
then increase in speed on monday but diminish fairly quickly monday
night into tuesday.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...flood watch through friday morning for ohz003-006>014-017>023-
027>033-036>038-047-089.
wind advisory until 7 pm est friday for ohz003-006>014-017>023-
027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...flood watch through friday morning for paz001>003.
wind advisory until 7 pm est friday for paz001>003.
marine...gale warning from 7 am friday to 1 am est saturday for lez061-
142>149-162>169.
&&
$$
synopsis...kosarik
near term...djb/kosarik
short term...kosarik
long term...lombardy
aviation...tk
marine...lombardy

---

md 0131 concerning tornado watch 14... for ern half of ind...wrn/central ky...wrn oh

mesoscale discussion 0131
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0819 pm cst thu feb 20 2014

areas affected...ern half of ind...wrn/central ky...wrn oh

concerning...tornado watch 14...

valid 210219z - 210345z

the severe weather threat for tornado watch 14 continues.

summary...the svr threat continues across ww 14 and in counties n/ne
of the nrn ww boundary. a new ww will be issued across nrn ind and
wrn oh.

discussion...a cold front extends s/se from a deepening sfc low over
srn wi across wrn portions of ind/ky at 02z...while an east-west
warm front lifts nwd across nrn ind and oh. the cold front will
continue moving quickly ewd...supported by 7 to 8 mb/2 hr pressure
rises behind the front. despite modest buoyancy...stg/svr tstms in
advance of the front will move newd at 45-50 kts and persist for
several more hours across ww 14...aided by strong forcing for ascent
associated with a newd-lifting shortwave across the upper
midwest/great lakes region. within the strongly-sheared
environment...multiple lines of svr tstms will continue to pose a
widespread threat for damaging winds...some significant...with
embedded qlcs/mesovortex low-level rotational signatures capable of
producing tornadoes. tstms across nrn portions of ww 14 and just to
the north...in the vicinity of the warm front...will continue to
pose a risk for damaging winds into wrn oh to the east of ww 14. a
new ww will be issued shortly across nrn ind and wrn oh.

..bunting/corfidi.. 02/21/2014

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...jkl...iln...lmk...iwx...ind...pah...

lat...lon 39818349 38058469 36678496 36698622 36768681 37288703
38098681 38538678 38698663 39068665 39478648 39998618
40478621 41388560 41698515 41698445 41478299 40618316
39818349

#toledo - #weather