Toledo Weather - Tue, Feb 25, 2014

• http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
  • predicts 3 to 4 inches of snowfall in the Toledo area by 1:00 a.m., Sun, Mar 2.

• http://grib2.com/gem/WINTER_GEM_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_144HR.gif
  • predicts 4 to 8 inches of total snowfall in the Toledo area by 7:00 p.m., Sun, Mar 2

Assuming that I understand the images correctly.

From the Cleveland NWS:

long term /saturday through monday/...

this portion of the forecast is not clear cut ... especially later in the weekend. for sunday and monday high pressure will be to the north and low pressure will move through the ohio valley. this is where it gets tricky.

all the models try to push warm air up into the area. at this time will keep it just snow...but it will have to be watched. did increase the pops for saturday night and sunday as it seems like some precipitation will be occurring.

---

Toledo Express Airport
Feb 25, 2014 7:52 am
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 14 F
Humidity : 84%
Wind Speed : NW 3 mph
Barometer : 30.16 in
Dewpoint: 10 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 9 F

---

Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: Feb 25, 2014 6:51 am

Today: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. West wind 6 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -12. West wind 14 to 16 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 13. Wind chill values as low as -12. West wind 11 to 18 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -16. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 21 mph.

Thursday: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 15. Breezy, with a northwest wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday Night: A slight chance of snow showers before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around -6. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 13.

Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 9. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 19.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 15. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 8. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

---

fxus61 kcle 251200
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
700 am est tue feb 25 2014

synopsis...
a trough will swing across the eastern great lakes late tonight. this
will be followed by another arctic front wednesday night.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
although not showing up on radar well...it is snowing just about
everywhere so bumped pops up to likely to categorical across entire
forecast area for this morning.
original discussion...
a short wave will move across the area today producing a widespread
synoptic light snow event. most areas will see less than an inch.
snow will taper off this afternoon as the short wave moves east.
snow showers will continue across the snowbelt with a widespread 1-3
inches possible. do not expect more snow than that as winds will
be shifting during the day. west winds now will shift to the
northwest this afternoon and then back to the west this evening.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through friday night/...
more snow tonight...mainly across the snowbelt as a surface trough
swings across the lake. in addition will need to monitor
overnight lows as wind chill values will hover near advisory
criteria. snow tapers off wednesday as winds shift to the
southwest ahead of approaching arctic front. models in good
agreement moving another arctic front across the area wednesday
night. limited moisture so not sure how much widespread synoptic
snow there will be. the 850mb temps plunge to -24c thursday behind
the front. sub zero temps return thursday night as clouds clear
out thursday night from the west as surface high pressure builds
over the area. lake effect snow finally comes to an end friday
with arctic high centered over the area...but temps will struggle
to make it out of the teens. &&

long term /saturday through monday/...
this portion of the forecast is not clear cut...especially later in
the weekend. an inverted trof will be over the eastern portion of
the region on saturday...so will continue a chance of snow. for
sunday and monday high pressure will be to the north and low
pressure will move through the ohio valley. this is where it gets
tricky. all the models try to push warm air up into the area. at
this time will keep it just snow...but it will have to be watched.
did increase the pops for saturday night and sunday as it seems like
some precipitation will be occurring.
&&

long term /saturday through monday/...
this portion of the forecast is not clear cut...especially later in
the weekend. an inverted trof will be over the eastern portion of
the region on saturday...so will continue a chance of snow. for
sunday and monday high pressure will be to the north and low
pressure will move through the ohio valley. this is where it gets
tricky. all the models try to push warm air up into the area. at
this time will keep it just snow...but it will have to be watched.
did increase the pops for saturday night and sunday as it seems like
some precipitation will be occurring.
&&

aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
a trof was moving through the region this morning causing snow
showers. a ridge will build in by late morning or early afternoon
and that should end the flurries/snow showers and the ceilings
should improve to vfr. another front/trof will move through
tonight and will cause more snow showers and mvfr to ifr
conditions mainly east of mfd.

outlook...non vfr at times wednesday into saturday.
&&

marine...
off and on trofs will be moving across lake erie through thursday.
the winds will be strong in the cold advection with a chance at
gales on thursday.
today ridging will be across the lake and the winds will be on the
lighter side as a surface trof approaches for late in the day.
tonight in the cold advection behind the trof the winds will
increase to 15 to 25 knots...possibly sustained at 30 knots for a
brief time...mainly on the east end of the lake.
another front/trof will move through late wednesday night into
thursday morning and the winds are stronger with this system
according to the gfs. at least a brief period of gale force winds
are possible. will mention it in the hwo.
high pressure will build over the lake by friday and then move east
by friday night. for the weekend a ridge will be over the northern
lakes and low pressure over the ohio valley. the winds will be well
below gale force.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...djb
near term...djb
short term...djb
long term...kieltyka
aviation...kieltyka
marine...kieltyka

---

fzus51 kcle 250841
nshcle
nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
341 am est tue feb 25 2014
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
lez142>146-251515-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh-
avon point to willowick oh-
341 am est tue feb 25 2014

today...west winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots.
cloudy with a chance of snow showers.

tonight...west winds 10 to 20 knots. mostly cloudy.

wednesday...west winds 10 to 20 knots. partly sunny.

wednesday night...southwest winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to
30 knots. mostly cloudy.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for thursday through saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees...off cleveland 34 degrees
and off erie 34 degrees.
$$
lez147>149-251515-
willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-
conneaut oh to ripley ny-
341 am est tue feb 25 2014

today...west winds 10 to 20 knots becoming southwest. occasional
snow showers.

tonight...southwest winds 10 to 20 knots becoming west 20 to
25 knots. snow showers likely.

wednesday...west winds 15 to 25 knots. occasional snow showers in
the morning...then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon.

wednesday night...southwest winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to
20 to 25 knots. cloudy with a chance of snow showers.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for thursday through saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees...off cleveland 34 degrees
and off erie 34 degrees.
$$

---

Forecast.io hi-lo-temp Toledo predictions as of 9:00 a.m., Feb 25:

• today, Tue, Feb 25 : 24 and 13
• Wed, Feb 26 : 12 and 3
• Thu, Feb 27 : 13 and -1
• Fri, Feb 28 : 19 and -10
• Sat, Mar 1 : 25 and 16
• Sun, Mar 2 : 15 and 10
• Mon, Mar 3 : 19 and 12
• Tue, Mar 4 : 21 and 9

---

Public Information Statement
Statement as of 1:53 PM EST on February 25, 2014

... Reported ice jam locations across the region as of 1 PM Tuesday...

This is an update to the river ice situations across the region. The ice
locations ongoing will likely move very little as the cold snap this
week supports ice growth. It is important to report ice jams to the
National Weather Service or your local law enforcement. When a thaw
and/or rain event occurs these areas will be of heightened risk for
flash flooding.

Below is a list of ongoing ice jams in the region:
river/Creek... ... ... ... County... ... ... Ice jam site
Grand River... ... ... .lake, OH... ... ... Painesville-main St bridge iced to the lake
Sandusky river... ... .Seneca,OH... ... ..pleasant-near Fort Seneca
French Creek... ... ... Crawford,PA... ... Hayfield/Vernon-S Mosiertown Rd for 1/2 mile
Maumee River... ... ... Wood/Lucas,OH... .2 miles upstream of Grand Rapids
Maumee River... ... ... Wood/Lucas,OH... .Perrysburg-Fort Hood park iced to the lake
Portage River... ... ..wood/Ottawa,OH... Elmore iced to the Lake
Vermilion river... ... Lorain,OH... ... ..Vermilion/Mill Hollow mp
Vermilion river... ... Erie,OH... ... ... .Vermilion/Railroad bridges (2) iced to the lake
chagrin River... ... ..Lake,OH... ... ... .Willoughby-glison Pkwy bridge iced to the Lake
Huron river... ... ... .Erie, OH... ... ... Milan-Mason Rd bridge (n of I-90) iced to the lake
Mahoning river... ... .Trumbull,OH... ... Warren/Leavittsburg-2 ice jams near Parkman Rd bridge
Sandusky river... ... .Sandusky,OH... ... N of Fremont-around I-90 bridge iced to the lake

Below is a list of earlier reported and since broken-up ice jams:
river/Creek... ... ... ... County... ... ... Ice jam site
Rocky River... ... ... ..Cuyahoga,OH... ..Rocky River Marina
Huron river... ... ... ..Erie,OH... ... ... Milan
Sandusky river... ... ..Seneca,OH... ... .Tiffin
Mohican river... ... ... Knox,OH... ... ... Greer
Nimishillen creek... ..Stark,OH... ... ..Louisville
Elk Creek... ... ... ... .Erie, PA... ... ..Girard
Black River... ... ... .Lorain... ... ... ..Elyria
Sandusky river... ... .Sandusky... ... ... Fremont
French Creek... ... ... .Crawford,PA... ..Saegertown/Meadville
Portage River... ... ..wood/Ottawa,OH... Woodville
Portage River... ... ..wood/Ottawa,OH... Pemberville
Maumee River... ... ... .Lucas,OH... ... ..Toledo (i-475 bridge)

Please report ice jams or ice jam related flooding to your local
law enforcement or the National Weather Service. You can share your
report at the U.S. National Weather Service Cleveland facebook
Page.

---

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
826 am est tue feb 25 2014

ohz003-006-017-261330-
lucas-wood-hancock-
826 am est tue feb 25 2014

this hazardous weather outlook is for northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

a wind chill advisory may be needed tonight. the maumee river
will continue to slowly rise throughout the day and night into
minor flood stage. the ice on the river may jam causing erratic
rises and falls in the river. those with interests on the river
should carefully monitor and report any ice jams or ice jam
related flooding to local law enforcement.

.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.

a wind chill advisory will likely be needed wednesday night and
thursday night as wind chills will dip to 10 to 15 degrees below
zero.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

flood statement
national weather service cleveland oh
1045 am est tue feb 25 2014

...the flood warning continues for the following rivers in ohio...

vermilion river near vermilion
maumee river at waterville
scioto river near prospect

precautionary/preparedness actions...

never drive your car through flooded roadways. the water may be
deeper than it appears. turn around...don`t drown!

stay tuned to noaa weather radio and other local media for further
details and updates.

&&

ohc095-173-252344-
/o.ext.kcle.fl.w.0016.000000t0000z-140227t0730z/
/wtvo1.1.er.140222t0603z.140223t0730z.140227t0130z.no/
1045 am est tue feb 25 2014

the flood warning continues for
the maumee river at waterville.
* at 10:00 am tuesday the stage was 9.5 feet.
* flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* forecast...the river will rise to near 10.1 feet by late tonight.
the river will fall below flood stage wednesday evening. the
extensive ice coverage on the river and upstream of waterville
will pose a heightened risk of ice jams. should a jam develop...the
river could rise and fall rapidly.
* at 9.0 feet...flooding occurs in lowland areas near the river.

---

fxus61 kcle 252059
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
359 pm est tue feb 25 2014

synopsis...
a couple clipper type storm systems will move across the region
through the remainder of the week with colder temperatures in the
wake of each. a strong storm system may move into the region
saturday night into sunday.
&&

near term /until 6 am wednesday morning/...
another trough will move across the area this evening. expect lift
to increase ahead of it early with light snow possible across most
of the region. we then should see increased cold advection over
the great lakes which should get some lake effect snow started near
or shortly after midnight. the best accumulations will be across
northeast ohio into nw pa. since winds are more from the northwest
the lake effect snow may reach back to lorain and medina counties.
2 to 4 inches of snow will be possible in the more persistent lake
bands that develop.
low temperature forecast is difficult with some uncertainty about
how quick the cold advection kicks in overnight. have gone with
the coldest temperatures across the west where the arctic air
arrives the earliest.
&&

short term /6 am wednesday morning through friday night/...
it will be cold in the morning with west to northwest winds
bringing wind chills down close to advisory levels. it will be
marginal and if it gets a bit colder across the west later shifts
may need to issue an advisory. it will feel even colder thursday
morning with strong winds in the wake of the next clipper. the
stronger winds and slightly colder temperatures will likely cause
wind chills closer to minus 15. thus a wind chill advisory will
likely be need for thursday morning.
otherwise this next clipper will bring another round of light snow
to much of the area toward sunrise on thursday with another round
of lake effect snow in its wake. the snow that does occur will be
very fluffy with ratios of 25:1 to 35:1 likely. high pressure
should build into the region enough by thursday night to shut down
the lake effect snow. the question is how much of the cloud cover
will dissipate by friday morning. if it clears out all locations
will see below zero. it already appears that some of the western
areas will see minus ten or colder.

&&

long term /saturday through tuesday/...
active weather still looks on track for the upcoming weekend. we
will be watching the evolution of a trough over the desert southwest
ahead of a broad trough that gradually sinks south out of canada.
models have sped up considerably over the last 24 hours and continue
to show timing differences. the first opportunity for light snow
will come on saturday as an elongated surface trough moves across
the area with a chance of light snow. shortwave energy then starts
streaming over the area in advance of the upper low bringing another
round of snow to the area saturday night. low pressure will
eventually track through the ohio valley bringing a round of
significant precipitation. at this time models are keeping us on the
cold side of the system which could result in a snowstorm sometime
during the sunday through monday time frame. at times models have
pulled enough warm air north that we could end up with mixed
precipitation. for now kept the forecast as all snow but this could
change. we will need to keep an eye on timing and track of this
potential storm throughout the week.
&&

aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
bkn-ovc mvfr stratocu is in place across the area this afternoon
with a few light snow showers lingering across nrn ohio. skies may
lift to vfr at times this afternoon. an arctic cold front will push
south across the area this evening with snow showers increasing from
north to south from 02z-06z. visibilities will generally be 5-6
miles in nw ohio and ifr at times in ne ohio...especially at
cle/eri. snow will linger into wednesday morning near the lake.
westerly winds will be 10-15 knots...veering to wnw behind the
front.

outlook...non vfr at times wednesday into saturday.
&&

marine...
a series of fronts will move across the lake this week. southwest
winds of 20-25 knots will veer to northwest late tonight with the
passage of an arctic front. winds will back to southwesterly again
on wednesday night and increase to near 30 knots. winds will shift
to the northwest early thursday and increase to gale force on the
east half of the lake. a gale watch has been issued for thursday.
there is a chance the gale watch may need to be expanded to the
whole lake or started earlier if the southwest flow ahead of the low
ramps up enough. winds will decrease quickly towards friday morning
as strong high pressure will builds overhead from the west.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...gale watch from late wednesday night through thursday evening
for lez061-146>149-166>169.
&&
$$
synopsis...mullen
near term...mullen
short term...mullen
long term...kec
aviation...kec
marine...kec

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