Toledo Weather - Mar 1, 2014

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Mar 1, 2014 6:44 am

Today: A slight chance of snow after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. West wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 15. North wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Sunday: Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 20. Wind chill values as low as zero. Northeast wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -9. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 17. North wind 9 to 11 mph becoming west in the afternoon.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 0.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 6. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 28.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20.

Friday: A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

---

fxus61 kcle 011145
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
645 am est sat mar 1 2014

synopsis...
a cold front across the central great lakes to the mississippi
valley will drop southeast across the area today. the front will
stall across kentucky and west virginia sunday. low pressure will
come out of texas sunday and move northeast along the front. high
pressure will build in on monday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
update...most of the moisture should remain to our northwest this
afternoon however just didn't like how the radar return was
increasing so boosted pops to chance for the afternoon in the
northwest. kept all other areas at slight chance. no other changes.
original...for today a cold front over the central great lakes
will drop across the area. snow showers currently are across
wisconsin and nrn lower mi with patchy cloud/virga return south of
those areas. as the front drops across the area today moisture
will increase although with dewpoints as low as they are am
skeptical that we will see a lot of snow. looking at bufkit
forecast soundings most soundings show low level dry air with the
airmass moistening up above. will therefore go with mostly cloudy
skies and a slight chance of rain or snow for the afternoon.
guidance highs of mid 30s northwest to lower 40s southeast
reasonable.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through tuesday night/...
the short term begins with the cold front just south of the cwa
and moisture deepening across the area from the west. the gfs is
faster here with the model indicating snow across much of the area
by 00z this evening while the nam has it just about to move in.
have shaded toward the drier nam given the slight chance pop
during the day saturday but the small model differences in
moisture not relevant as both show deep moisture and categorical
pops for the evening and the overnight. temps across the north
favor any rain/mix changing back to snow through the early
evening. further south however thicknesses support a period of
mixed precip. favor the cooler gfs with any mix remaining mainly
across the far south. will continue with categorical pops for snow
sunday...tapering from the north sunday night as drier air and
high pressure build in. monday and monday night high pressure
builds across the area and will go with a dry forecast. tuesday
moisture increases to our north. will go with slight chance pops
across the northeast...increasing to chance pops tuesday night.
sunday through tuesday temperatures...below normal.
&&

long term /wednesday through friday/...
the models show high pressure extending south into the area for wed
but also show a band of moisture associated with a back door cold
front still across the area. will carry a slight chance for light
snow wed into wed night more in line with guidance pops while temps
stay below normal.
for fri...a southern system in a split flow should stay far enough
south of the area to keep precip from that system out of the area.
however...a weak upper trough in the northern flow with a surface
cold front may get close enough to the nw for some light rain by
late in the day fri or fri night.as temps jump all the way into the
mid to upper 30s.
&&

aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr should generally prevail until this evening when snow will then
spread se across the area. there could be some sct flurries or
sprinkles as a cold front passes thru today while sw winds turn to
the nw then n to nne tonight. would think conditions will
deteriorate down to ifr within 2 to 4 hours of the onset of the snow
during the 1st half of the night.

outlook...non-vfr sunday...and possibly into monday in widespread
accumulating snow.
&&

marine...
a cold front crossing the lake today will shift the ssw flow of 10
to 15 knots to nw then north into tonight will winds increase to
mainly 15 to 20 knots. high pressure moves into the lake by mon eve
to diminish the flow then a back door cold front slides south across
the lake tue so there should be some increase in a ne flow into wed.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter storm watch from this evening through monday morning
for ohz017-027>033-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...tk
near term...tk
short term...tk
long term...adams
aviation...lombardy
marine...adams

---

fzus51 kcle 010804
nshcle
nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
304 am est sat mar 1 2014
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
lez142>149-011530-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh-
avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-
on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny-
304 am est sat mar 1 2014

today...southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. mostly
cloudy. a slight chance of snow late.

tonight...northwest winds 10 to 20 knots becoming north. snow.

sunday...northeast winds 10 to 20 knots becoming north. snow.

sunday night...north winds 10 to 15 knots. mostly cloudy. a chance
of snow in the evening.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for monday through wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 32 degrees...off cleveland 33 degrees
and off erie 34 degrees.
$$

---

flus41 kcle 011127
hwocle
hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
627 am est sat mar 1 2014
ohz003-006>014-018>023-089-paz001>003-021130-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-crawford pa-
627 am est sat mar 1 2014
this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

day one...today and tonight.
no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

days two through seven...sunday through friday.
no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

spotter information statement...
spotter activation is not expected at this time.
$$
ohz017-027>033-036>038-047-021130-
hancock-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-
marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
627 am est sat mar 1 2014

..winter storm watch in effect from this evening through monday
morning...
this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio.

day one...today and tonight.
please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.
winter storm watch.

days two through seven...sunday through friday.
please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.
winter storm watch.

spotter information statement...
spotter activation is not expected at this time.
$$

for lake erie.

day one...today and tonight.
no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

days two through seven...sunday through friday.
no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

spotter information statement...
spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

Currently, no weather watches nor advisories exist for metro Toledo. Same for the northern quarter of Ohio. The rest of the state is under a Winter Storm Watch.

For the Findlay area :

Winter Storm Watch now in effect from this evening through Monday morning.

• accumulations... a storm total snowfall of 6 to 8 inches is expected. A period of freezing rain or sleet is also possible tonight.

• Timing... snow will move in this evening... possibly mixing with freezing rain and sleet both this evening and overnight. Snow will continue heavy at times Sunday into Sunday night before tapering off by Monday morning.

• Winds... northerly at 10 to 20 mph.

Toledo forecast :

Tonight: Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 15. North wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Sunday: Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 20. Wind chill values as low as zero. Northeast wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -9. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

---

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
1222 pm est sat mar 1 2014

ohz003-006>014-018>023-089-paz001>003-021730-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-crawford pa-
1222 pm est sat mar 1 2014

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...this afternoon and tonight.

accumulating snow is expected tonight as a cold front moves south
across the area. most areas will see 1 to 3 inches of snow
overnight with snow continuing into sunday.

.days two through seven...sunday through friday.

accumulating snow will linger into sunday with additional
accumulations of 1 to 4 inches...for storm totals in the 2 to 6
inch range.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Mar 1, 2014 6:15 pm

Tonight: Snow. Low around 14. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Sunday: Snow, mainly before 3pm. High near 19. Wind chill values as low as zero. Northeast wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -7. Northeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 15. Wind chill values as low as -10. North wind 5 to 9 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -1. Southwest wind 3 to 5 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 7. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 28.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18.

Friday: A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

---

fxus61 kcle 012352
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
652 pm est sat mar 1 2014

synopsis...
a cold front will push south of the area tonight. a wave of low
pressure will track northeast through the tennessee valley on sunday
morning with a stronger low pressure system tracking south of the
appalachians sunday night and monday. meanwhile strong high pressure
will expand from the northern plains over the great lakes through
sunday night.
&&

near term /through sunday/...
snow is beginning to spread across the southern portions of lower
michigan at this time. models indicate upper level positive
vorticity maximum will push into the forecast area over the next
several hours along with some deeper mean relative humidity. this
should help in blossoming snow across the northern tier counties
between now and midnight. so...current forecast looks reasonable
and will make only minor adjustments to hourly temperatures and
dew points.
previous discussion...
fairly large changes to the forecast for the upcoming storm with
this package. the low pressure system that will move through the
tennessee valley from sunday night into monday will be far enough
south that it is expected to have little impact on our forecast
area. without that as a contributing factor...the forecast calls for
less snow with an end time by sunday evening. a winter weather
advisory has been issued for all of nrn oh except ashtabula
county. snowfall totals will range from 3 to 7 inches...with the
highest in the south.
water vapor imagery shows a plume of moisture streaming northeast
across the plains ahead of a closed upper low off the southern
california coast. this moisture and energy will stream across the
southern great lakes region over the next 24 hours within an area of
confluent flow aloft ahead of an upper level trough dropping south
out of canada. upstream radars shows precipitation approaching lake
michigan...with snow expected to overspread nrn ohio by midnight.
models show additional energy and a jet streak approaching from the
west for late tonight and sunday morning. in the low levels...a cold
front will move south across the area this evening leaving a tight
baroclinic zone in place through 800mb. temperatures this afternoon
peaked in the mid 40s but will fall quickly through the evening as
precip begins. surface temperatures will drop first leaving a brief
window of time near the onset of precipitation where we could see
rain or even sleet from marion to youngstown. any icing will be
minimal this evening but could create a few slick spots...mainly
between 10 pm and 2 am. after that time expect the column to cool
enough that all areas should see snow.
models soundings show steep low level rates above 600mb which
coincides well with the dendritic growth zone. the snow is
expected to come in waves as the shortwaves move through the flow
aloft...heaviest in nw ohio overnight...and heaviest in the
southern areas late tonight and sunday. we will have to keep an
eye on snowfall totals in the southern counties as specific
humidities increase to near 4 g/kg and upper level divergence
strengthens on sunday.
&&

short term /sunday night through monday night/...
dont expect to much additional accumulation from lake effect snow
as the system pulls away sunday night as the airmass really dries
out quickly. a few light snow showers or flurries will linger...as
the ridge builds to the north and there is a little extra
shoreline convergence.
high pressure expands over the southern great lakes
on monday with skies clearing late in the day. monday night will
be cold with some locations dipping below zero again.
&&

long term /tuesday through saturday/...
a minor and somewhat brief warm up for late in the week and next
saturday...but no major storms are anticipated.
in the meantime below normal temperatures. high pressure will be
over the area to start. some nuisance precipitation could occur in
the snow belt tuesday with a low chance everywhere tuesday night as
a weak front sags in from the north. a threat will linger into
wednesday and then dry weather until friday afternoon through
saturday. the models are not in complete agreement on this period.
the gfs moves a front through while the ecmwf moves a low up the
east coast. none the less some low chance pops. the qpf amounts will
be light and temperatures will not get real warm...so some runoff
from snow melt will occur...so at this time not expecting any major
ice jam flooding...but some of the ice jams may try to move again.
this threat will be monitored.
&&

aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
cold front continues to sag southward across the area with cooler
air in its wake. mvfr ceilings are beginning to fill in behind the
front across nw ohio and should spread to the south and east
through 06z. lift will increase across nw ohio through the evening
with snow developing. the snow will slowly spread to the east and
south through the overnight. some ifr snow will develop for 2 to 4
hours after 06z across the west and toward 12z across the central
areas. most locations will only see 1 to 3 inches but localized
amounts of 4 to 5 inches may occur across the south. conditions
will improve sunday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr sunday evening. non vfr tuesday night into
wednesday.
&&

marine...
a cold front will sag south across lake erie later today and will
shift the generally light flow from the sw to the nw tonight. by
sunday morning the winds will increase to around 15 to 20 knots.
high pressure will quickly build in behind the front wed afternoon
and the winds will respond by decreasing to 5 to 15 knots. by thu
evening the high will be located off the new england coast and the
winds will begin to turn to the north as a low pressure system
deepens to the south of the hudson bay. meanwhile a strong low
pressure system will move up the eastern seaboard early next
weekend...but its effects will be few if any across le. the lake
remains almost completely ice covered.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est sunday for ohz003-
006>013-017>020.
winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm est
sunday for ohz021>023-027>033-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...kec
near term...lombardy
short term...kec
long term...kieltyka
aviation...mullen
marine...mayers

---

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
954 pm est sat mar 1 2014

...winter storm to move across the region tonight and sunday...

.snow will continue to move into the area as a wave of low
pressure moves along the front. snow will diminish sunday evening
as drier air and high pressure spreads into the area from the
north. snowfall associated with the low pressure system moving
through the tennessee valley on sunday night will remain mostly
south of the forecast area.

ohz003-006>013-017>020-021100-
/o.con.kcle.ww.y.0011.000000t0000z-140302t1800z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
hancock-seneca-huron-medina-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...mentor...chardon...
findlay...tiffin...norwalk...medina
954 pm est sat mar 1 2014

...winter weather advisory remains in effect until 1 pm est
sunday...

• accumulations...storm total snowfall of 2 to 5 inches.

• timing...snow will continue through sunday morning and then
  taper off during the early afternoon.

• visibilities...visibilities will gradually drop to a half mile
  or less overnight.

• winds...north to northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph.

• temperatures...falling to the upper teens overnight and
  holding near 20 on sunday.

• impacts...roads will become snow covered and travel will be
  slow overnight and sunday morning.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter weather advisory is normally issued for a variety of
winter weather conditions such as light snow... blowing snow...
sleet... freezing rain and wind chills. while the weather will be
significant... the word advisory implies that severe winter
weather is not anticipated. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for
further details or updates.

#toledo - #weather