10 min

Toledo Weather - Sun, Mar 9, 2014

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
606 am edt sun mar 9 2014

for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.days two through seven...monday through saturday.

wintry weather is expected tuesday night into wednesday. low
pressure will track across the lower ohio valley during this time.
precipitation may start out as rain or a rain and snow mix tuesday
night...transitioning to all snow wednesday. snow fall
accumulations will be dependent on the track of this system and
on temperatures. upcoming forecasts will have preliminary snow
fall accumulation forecasts.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.


Toledo Express Airport:
Mar 9, 2014 8:52 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 18 F
Humidity : 88%
Wind Speed : W 6 mph
Barometer : 30.24 in
Dewpoint: 15 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 10 F


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Mar 9, 2014 6:51 am

Today: Sunny, with a high near 35. Southwest wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Breezy, with a southwest wind 16 to 20 mph.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 48. West wind 15 to 17 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. West wind 7 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. West wind 3 to 5 mph.

Tuesday Night: A slight chance of rain before 11pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow between 11pm and 2am, then snow likely after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Snow likely, mainly before 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 8.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 29.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Breezy.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 42.


fxus61 kcle 091138
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
738 am edt sun mar 9 2014

synopsis...
high pressure will be across the ohio valley today. low pressure
will cross the northern great lakes and move east to new england
between monday and tuesday. this will bring a cold front to
northern ohio/nw pa on tuesday. a complicated system will track
across kentucky into maryland on wednesday and be followed by high
pressure thursday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
significant clearing taking place early this morning. patchy fog
has developed...but not widespread enough to throw into the
forecast. there will still be stratocu off of the lake...patches
drifting into ne oh/nw pa through the morning hours. others will
clear out. by the afternoon hours mid/high clouds will be on the
slow increase as a warm front will be moving east across the great
lakes. winds will back to the southwest for the majority of today
and temperatures will range from freezing to 40 degrees. this
early morning update included tweaks to the clouds first thing
this morning and temperatures. those that have cleared have
dropped into the teens...others staying in the 20s until they
clear before sunrise.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through wednesday night/...
warm air advection tonight and with it a small chance for precip
toward monday morning. it does not look like chances are any
better or worse than we already had going...basically 20 pops for
far ne oh/nw pa. with temperatures the way they are...rain/snow
mix. with a continued southwest flow expect temperatures to drop
little overnight...or possibly rise some before morning. majority
of the lift and moisture exits by monday afternoon.
the great lakes low makes its way to new england by tuesday and at
this point its cold front will be sinking south toward the
area...with moisture gathering along the front tuesday night. from
this point forward the forecast gets complicated. the system we
had been watching for late tuesday/wednesday has come into closer
agreement than it had been...but still leaves much to be desired.
average track of the low amongst models takes it across kentucky
and to maryland. northern extent of precip drawn further
north...aided by the cold front sinking south with this systems
northern component. temperatures look to start out marginal for
all snow at least for a line from findlay to cleveland to
cortland. here and south precip can be rain or a mix for a number
of hours reducing the snow accum potential. with time the cold air
will be drawn southward into the system and will go to all
snow....transitioning early wednesday. no estimate on snowfall
this far out...but we will continue to fine tune.
trend is for the upper trough to pull east quicker and partial
clearing/drying out to take place before 12z thu. this system will
be followed by another shot of unseasonably cold air. guidance
has a broad range on the potential for lows for wednesday night.
have settled with a compromise in the teens.
&&

long term /thursday through saturday/...
some lingering snow showers may persist through thursday morning
across ne oh and nw pa as the upper level trough moves to the new
england coast. this will allow high pressure to ridge into the area
thursday evening. the next area of low pressure will move from the
northern lakes and cross ontario on friday. southwesterly breezes
will bring warmer temperatures back to the region on friday after a
well below average high on thursday. most locations on friday should
rebound to the 40s. there could be some light precipitation as the
low passes friday afternoon/evening into saturday. if it does occur
it will be light with most locations seeing sprinkles/light rain. it
wont be much cooler in the wake of the low on saturday with highs
still near or just above 40.
&&

aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
areas of mvfr ceilings were mainly located over extreme eastern
ohio into nw pa and over the central highlands this morning. these
clouds should slowly dissipate as they drift to the southeast
this morning. fresh snow on the ground and clear skies at sunrise
raise the concern about some mvfr fog. southwest winds will
increase through the day and may begin to gust to around 20 knots
across the west. high level cloud cover will increase through this
evening then slowly lower through the overnight.

outlook...non vfr likely tuesday night through wednesday in
snow.
&&

marine...
high pressure will ridge over lake erie this morning then shift
slowly southward as the next area of low pressure takes shape over
the northern great lakes region. as the low moves across ontario
tonight into monday expect to see southwest winds increase to at
least 25 knots...maybe reaching 30 knots for a brief period across
the eastern half of the lake. low pressure is then expected to track
along the ohio river valley wednesday while high pressure remains
across ontario. this should set up a tight pressure gradient in the
wake of the low. northerly winds should reach at least 25 knots
wednesday afternoon. we will have to monitor this closely with the
possibility of touching gales. northerly winds will decrease into
thursday then back to the west and southwest ahead of the next area
of low pressure that will move north of lake erie on friday. winds
will once again increase to 25 to 30 knots with this storm system.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...oudeman
near term...oudeman
short term...oudeman
long term...mullen
aviation...mullen
marine...mullen


fzus51 kcle 090749
nshcle
nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
349 am edt sun mar 9 2014
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
lez142>149-091415-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh-
avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-
on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny-
349 am edt sun mar 9 2014

today...west winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest 5 to
15 knots. mostly sunny.

tonight...southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. mostly cloudy.

monday...southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. partly sunny.

monday night...west winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to
20 knots. mostly cloudy.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for tuesday through thursday.
the water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees...off cleveland 33
degrees and off erie 33 degrees.


Forecast.io Toledo hi-lo temp predictions:

  • today, Sun, Mar 9 : 34 and 14
  • Mon, Mar 10 : 39 and 34
  • Tue, Mar 11 : 43 and 33
  • Wed, Mar 12 : 36 and 24
  • Thu, Mar 13 : 35 and 13
  • Fri, Mar 14 : 51 and 33
  • Sat, Mar 15 : 43 and 32
  • Sun, Mar 16 : 34 and 25


hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
443 pm edt sun mar 9 2014

for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...tonight.

no hazardous weather is expected tonight.

.days two through seven...monday through saturday.

a low moving up the ohio valley tuesday night and wednesday may
produce significant snow across the area. initially...the
precipitation will start as rain or a mix of rain and snow then
change over to all snow late tuesday night into early wednesday
morning. preliminary estimates are for 4 to 9 inches of possible
snowfall by wednesday evening from this system but estimates will
change as the exact track of the low becomes more certain.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.


My TT comment

As of Mar 9, 2014, Toledo Express Airport has recorded 77.8 inches of total snowfall since July 1. Toledo's average by Mar 9 is 32.7 inches.

We still have a solid 3 to 5 inches of snow cover. We've had snow cover for every day of 2014.

Temps this week will be up and down. Single digits along with a possible snowstorm are forecast for mid-week.


Currently, the the Detroit / Pontiac National Weather Service predicts around 4 inches of snow to accumulate near the Ohio border.


Latest info from the Cleveland National Weather Service:

a low moving up the ohio valley tuesday night and wednesday may produce significant snow across the area.

initially...the precipitation will start as rain or a mix of rain and snow then change over to all snow late tuesday night into early wednesday morning.

preliminary estimates are for 4 to 9 inches of possible snowfall by wednesday evening from this system but estimates will change as the exact track of the low becomes more certain.

the question will be how much snow can accumulate in the short period from when the precip changes to snow to when the snow tapers off.

based on temps and snow versus rain it would appear the best chance for the most accumulation would be in the nw.

the issuance of any watches will be highly dependent on collaboration with bordering forecast areas.

#toledo - #weather

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