Toledo Weather - Mon, Mar 10, 2014

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
358 am edt mon mar 10 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-110800-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
crawford pa-
358 am edt mon mar 10 2014

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.days two through seven...tuesday through sunday.

a low moving up the ohio valley tuesday night and wednesday may
produce significant snow across the area. initially...the
precipitation will start as rain then change over to all snow at
some point wednesday morning. still uncertainty in the exact track
of the low but the heaviest snowfall...greater than 4
inches...looks to be near and north of a line from findlay to
meadville.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Mar 10, 2014 8:48 am

Today: A slight chance of light rain before 11am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 49. Southwest wind 11 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. West wind 6 to 14 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. West wind 3 to 5 mph.

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain before midnight, then rain and snow. Low around 28. North wind 7 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Snow. High near 29. Blustery, with a north wind 17 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of snow before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 24.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 17.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 39.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 34.

---

fxus61 kcle 101249
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
849 am edt mon mar 10 2014

synopsis...
a low will move across ontario today with a cold front moving
across the region late this afternoon into the evening. this front
will stall across southern ohio and become the track for low
pressure that will move eastward along the ohio river valley on
wednesday. high pressure will briefly ridge across the area on
thursday before another low moves across ontario on friday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
update...updated...and then corrected with another update...to
remove snow from the forecast and to adjust pops to account for
the area of light rain drifting southeast across the western and
central counties. also changed wording from showery to stratiform.
(rw to r).
previous discussion...
a couple pieces of jet energy will move across the area today.
the first is moving into western ny now with some lift over the
region. the precipitation on radar is likely not reaching the
surface because of the dry layer in the 00z soundings. have
mentioned some sprinkles for a decent portion of the area. there
could be a few flurries across extreme ne ohio into inland nw pa.
low pressure will then move across ontario through the day with
breezy conditions expected through the afternoon. as it approaches
lift will increase but believe any rain will be light. the
southwesterly winds will allow the region to warm nicely with
highs above average for a change. most locations will warm into
the 50s...except where there is more snowpack across the toledo
area and nw pa. these locations will likely remain in the 40s.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through thursday night/...
as a weak frontal boundary passes this evening we could see some
lake induced light rain/sprinkles from the central lakeshore
counties northeast into nw pa. it may end up just being some
increased cloud cover off of the lakes. temperatures will remain
above average in the wake of the front tonight with lows
generally in the middle and upper 30s.
tuesday will be another warm day as the next storm system takes
shape across the southern plains. highs should once again reach
the 50s for most inland locations. cooler near the lake with the
likelihood of a lake breeze. cloud cover will thicken and lower
tuesday night as the low moves up the ohio river valley. this
should help to keep in some of the afternoon warmth over the
region through much of tuesday night. so with that said we believe
most of the region will see rain into the overnight hours of
tuesday night. however by sunrise on wednesday the colder air will
be ready to spread across the region in the wake of the low. wrap
around moisture will flow into the colder air and produce a period
of moderate to maybe heavy snowfall. the snow will move into nw
ohio first then spread eastward into the afternoon. at this point
it appears that the heaviest swath of snow will be near and north
of a line from findlay to meadville. still enough uncertainty with
the track and precipitation type to keep us from pinpointing snow
amounts. however 4+ inches of snow will be possible in the swath
of heavier snow.
model trends this winter season have been too far south with
several of the storm systems. this combined with some of the
ensemble guidance indicating a further north track of the 850 mb
low make us think that much of the eastern half of the county
warning area could be rain into mid morning on wednesday. stay
tuned for more details over the next 24 hours.
the low should be east of the region by wednesday night with some
lake effect snow showers lingering into at least thursday morning.
it will be much colder with lows into the single digits by
thursday morning. if the region can get some sunshine on thursday
then most locations will be able to warm into the 20s.
&&

long term /friday through sunday/...
southwesterly flow and warm advection will ramp up on friday ahead
of a low pressure system dropping south out of canada. highs should
reach 40 degrees again all areas...upper 40s in our southern
counties. the cold front associated with the low will move south
across the area late friday night bringing a chance of snow showers
and temperatures dropping back below normal for the weekend. the
initial surge of cold air is not that strong...but a secondary push
will arrive late in the weekend with highs on monday struggling to
reach 30 degrees.
&&

aviation /12z monday through friday/...
regional radars show precipitation trying to increase in coverage
however little of this has been reaching the ground with a dry
sub-cloud layer. a light shower or sprinkle is possible at the taf
sites...mainly through 16z...before drier air spreads in from the
west. conditions should remain vfr in light showers with ceilings
briefly dropping to 4-5k feet. otherwise southwest winds near 10-12
knots this morning will gust to 20-25 knots this afternoon...
despite a strong low level inverstion with stronger winds alfot. sites
in ne oh/nw pa may see mvfr clouds develop downwind of lake erie
with the passage of a trough tonight.

outlook...non vfr likely tuesday night in rain with accumulating
snow on wednesday.
&&

marine...
southwesterly winds of 15 to 20 knots will continue on the lake
today...shifting to westerly and increasing to 25 knots on the east
end of the lake with the passage of a trough this evening. winds
will drop off by tuesday morning to 5 to 15 knots as low pressure
pulls away to the east and weak ridging builds over the lake.
by midweek we will be watching a low pressure system that will
strengthen as it tracks northeast through the ohio valley. there is
some potential for north winds to approach gale force for a brief
period of time on wednesday as this system passes to the south but
will keep winds at 30 knots in the forecast for now. uncertainty
remains in the exact track and strength of this storm system. high
pressure will build over the lake on thursday followed by increasing
southwesterly flow ahead of low pressure approaching from the north
on friday.

---

Winter Storm Watches are up for the western half of the Toledo metro area and the rest of NW OH. Cleveland should be following suit at some point. Heavy snow main threat...someone could see 6-12" out of it.

Toledo metro area...
12Z NAM: 6-8"
12Z GFS: 10-15"
12Z GEM: 2-6"
12Z ECMWF: 4-7"

! posted by JustaSooner on Mar 10, 2014 at 03:42:00 pm # +

---

Next threat of snow is next Sunday/Monday. ECMWF kicks out at least another 5-7" of snow for much of the area. Still a long ways out to worry about though. It goes crazy over Indiana dropping up to 15" of snow over from Fort Wayne down to Indy.

! posted by JustaSooner on Mar 10, 2014 at 03:47:59 pm # +

---

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
350 pm edt mon mar 10 2014

.low pressure will move through the lower ohio valley tuesday
night and early wednesday. rain will move into the area ahead of
the low tuesday night but the rain will change to snow overnight
and wednesday across the area as colder air moves in behind the
low. a period of freezing rain is also possible before changing to
all snow. based on the current track of the storm...snowfall
should be highest across northern ohio into northwest pennsylvania
with decreasing amounts further south. a glaze of ice however will
also be possible.

ohz003-006>009-017>019-110400-
/o.new.kcle.ws.a.0005.140312t0000z-140313t0000z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk
350 pm edt mon mar 10 2014

...winter storm watch in effect from tuesday evening through
wednesday evening...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a winter
storm watch...which is in effect from tuesday evening through
wednesday evening.

• accumulations...6 to 8 inches of snow along with a glaze of ice.

• timing...tuesday evening through early wednesday evening.

• winds...north 15 to 25 mph.

• impacts...accumulating snow along with a glaze of ice will slow
  travel across the region and make any untreated surfaces slick.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter storm watch means that heavy snow is possible. if you
are within the watch area...remain alert to rapidly changing
weather conditions. stay tuned to the national weather service or
the local news media for the latest updates and possible
warnings.

---

Toledo Express Airport:
Mar 10, 2014 3:52 pm
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 47 F
Humidity : 63%
Wind Speed : SW 20 mph - Gust 31 mph
Barometer : 29.63 in
Dewpoint: 35 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 40 F

---

fxus61 kcle 102012
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
412 pm edt mon mar 10 2014

synopsis...
low pressure will move from ontario into quebec overnight and drag
a weak cold front into the area. another low will develop in the
central plains and move along the front through the lower ohio
valley tuesday night and early wednesday. high pressure will build
in on thursday.
&&

near term /until 6 am tuesday morning/...
clearing skies this afternoon so will continue with pc overnight.
went with lows close to continuity which is near to a couple
degrees below mav guidance.
&&

short term /6 am tuesday morning through thursday night/...
issued watch for tuesday night through wednesday. for tuesday
expect clouds to move in quickly. moisture streaming in on the
north side of the front stalled across central ohio will
eventually have enough moisture to warrant a slight chance across
the north in the late afternoon. will have this in the graphics
but will not be in the text forecast. for tuesday night...models
close but the ecmwf is coldest transitioning the rain to snow
across the area. models show precip beginning as all rain tuesday
evening changing to snow after midnight from the northwest. good
chance for a period of zr before the change. transition will take
into wednesday morning however as models really just show nwrn and
possibly the nrn fringe of counties changing to snow through the
night. wednesday behind the low cold air will come in quickly
changing the rain to snow from the north. again...will maintain a
couple hours of zr in the graphics and text. drier air will move
in from the northwest beginning wednesday afternoon. will hang
onto likely pops snow belt wednesday evening but will drop as
moisture exits after midnight. wednesday night and thursday dry
but well below normal with a short lived arctic intrusion across
the area.
&&

long term /friday through monday/...
we should recover on friday as a decent southwest flow develops
ahead of the next front. normally in this pattern in mid march i
would forecast high temperatures in the lower/mid 50s but we will
have snow on the ground to melt so will forecast highs from the mid
40s to around 50 with a varying amount of mid and high clouds...
probably at least partial sunshine.
the next front will drop across the area on saturday. actually it
may just be a trough...with a secondary cold front later in the day.
there will likely be a chance for a few rain or snow showers...v
eventually getting cold enough aloft for all snow showers later.
all of the models indicate another arctic high building south on
sunday. there should be enough anticyclonic flow to minimize the
threat of lake effect snow showers. clouds will probably be on the
increase though as all of the models show a wave developing on the
front. not sure if the system will slip south of the area relatively
quickly or turn into a snow storm. unfortunately it seems as though
we will be on the cold side of the system regardless so early
indications are that it will be a cold saint patricks day.
&&

aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
the weak short wave is southeast of the area. patches of mid
clouds will move east by late afternoon. high clouds will begin to
increase again tonight. winds my lighten up enough for patchy
fog...mainly across northwest ohio early tuesday morning. mid and
high clouds will increase on tuesday but conditions will remain
vfr.

outlook...non vfr developing tuesday night with rain changing to
snow. non-vfr with accumulating snow on wednesday.
&&

marine...
moderate southwest flow on lake erie will gradually relax as the
gradient weakens ahead of a cold front. the cold front will sag
across the lake tuesday...probably in the morning. the wind will
veer to the north and northeast behind the front. a panhandle hook
low pressure system will develop on the front and track across the
ohio valley on wednesday. the wind on lake erie always gets stronger
than the guidance with these lows and we should approach gale force
winds from the north to northeast on wednesday. arctic high pressure
will build down from the north wednesday night into thursday. as
fast as the high builds in by thursday... it will retreat on friday
as a warm front sweeps across the great lakes. the south to
southwest flow will increase on friday.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter storm watch from late tuesday night through late
wednesday night for ohz010>014-089.
winter storm watch from tuesday evening through wednesday
evening for ohz003-006>009-017>019.
winter storm watch from wednesday morning through late
wednesday night for ohz020>023-029>031.
winter storm watch from wednesday morning through wednesday
evening for ohz027-028-036-037.
pa...winter storm watch from late tuesday night through late
wednesday night for paz001>003.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...tk
near term...tk
short term...tk
long term...kosarik
aviation...kosarik
marine...kosarik

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Mar 10, 2014 3:32 pm

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. West wind 7 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Cloudy, with a high near 45. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning.

Tuesday Night: Rain and snow before 2am, then snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain. Low around 26. Northeast wind 6 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Wednesday: Snow. High near 27. Blustery, with a north wind 16 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Wednesday Night: Snow showers likely, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5. North wind 10 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 26.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 40.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 21.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 32.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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