Toledo Weather - Tue, Mar 11, 2014

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
631 am edt tue mar 11 2014

ohz003-006>009-017>019-121045-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-
631 am edt tue mar 11 2014

...winter storm watch in effect from late tonight through wednesday
evening...

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and
northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

winter storm watch.

ice jam flooding may be possible today as any remaining snow melts
and flows into area creeks and rivers. as rainfall develops
tonight the threat will increase.

.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

winter storm watch.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
407 am edt tue mar 11 2014

.low pressure will move through the lower ohio valley late tuesday
night into wednesday. rain will move into the area ahead of the
low tuesday night. the rain will change to snow by sunrise across
northwest ohio and spread eastward on wednesday as colder air
moves in behind the low. a period of freezing rain is also
possible before changing to all snow. based on the current track
of the storm...snowfall should be highest across northern ohio
into northwest pennsylvania with decreasing amounts further south.
a glaze of ice however will also be possible.

ohz003-006>009-017>019-111615-
/o.ext.kcle.ws.a.0005.140312t0400z-140313t0000z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk
407 am edt tue mar 11 2014

...winter storm watch now in effect from late tonight through
wednesday evening...

• accumulations...6 to 8 inches of snow along with a glaze of
  ice.

• timing...rain will occur much of tuesday night. the rain will
  change to snow by sunrise on wednesday. as the rain transitions
  to snow there could be a period of freezing rain. the heaviest
  snow should occur from just after sunrise into early afternoon
  then taper off into the evening.

• winds...north 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible.

• impacts...accumulating snow along with a glaze of ice will
  slow travel across the region and make any untreated surfaces
  slick.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter storm watch means that heavy snow is possible. if you
are within the watch area...remain alert to rapidly changing
weather conditions. stay tuned to the national weather service or
the local news media for the latest updates and possible
warnings.

---

Toledo Express Airport
Mar 11, 2014 6:52 am
Weather : Fog/Mist
Temperature : 37 F
Humidity : 96%
Wind Speed : W 6 mph
Barometer : 29.66 in
Dewpoint: 36 F
Visibility : 6.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 32 F

---

fxus61 kcle 111033
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
633 am edt tue mar 11 2014

synopsis...
a weakening cold front will sag across the area today. this front
will stall over central or southern ohio this evening and become
the path for low pressure to move along late tonight into
wednesday. high pressure will build in on thursday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
only minor changes to hourly temperatures have been made.
previous discussion...
a weakening cold front will sag across the area today. this
should provide for a cooler day than yesterday. however the region
is starting rather warm so we have gone slightly higher than
guidance highs. still looks like most of the region will be near
or above 50...warmest across the south. as the flow comes off of
lake erie this afternoon temperatures will likely fall. we will
need to monitor for some fog development as the chilled air from
the ice covered lake moves onshore.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through friday night/...
low pressure will move near the ohio river valley tonight into
wednesday. this will bring rain into the region overnight. since
the models are slightly further north with the low track it
appears the rain may persist into wednesday morning from the
central county warning area into nw pa. this may end up cutting
into the snowfall amounts. we have nudged the heavier snow a bit
further north with this forecast package but have not changed the
watch area at this time. the reason for leaving it a watch is that
there is still uncertainty in the track of the low. there are
still a couple solutions that move the track even further north.
the main concerns for the county warning area are the nw and ne
corners. these two areas have the best shot at seeing the
significant snow...especially with an even further north wobble of
the track. after an area changes over to snow late tonight into
wednesday there will likely be a quick burst with 2 to 4 inches
rapidly accumulating. this may impact the evening commute from
cleveland to mansfield and locations to the east. we will then see
how much lake effect snow can occur in the wake of the low. winds
will be gusty in the wake of the low and could exceed 40 mph at
times.
as the snow tapers off the cold air will continue to filter into
the area with lows dipping into the single digits by thursday
morning. thursday will be a cold day with lake effect snow showers
for ne ohio into nw pa. as high pressure slides east of the area
on friday we will have increasing southwesterly flow. any snowpack
will slow the warming on friday but it still appears many
locations will be into the 40s. however the upper 30s may occur
across nw ohio and nw pa if the heavier snow occurs.
&&

long term /saturday through monday/...
a cold front will push south across the area on saturday with a
chance of lake effect rain/snow showers...mainly in the snowbelt as
the trough shifts through. the airmass will dry out as high pressure
builds over the central great lakes on sunday with north to
northeast flow resulting in below normal temperatures to end the
week.
&&

aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
southwest winds over the area will decrease towards 12z...possibly
becoming light and variable in nw ohio. as this occurs...visibilities
could drop in br towards dawn...mainly at tol/fdy where snowmelt
is contributing moisture to the boundary layer. not expecting fog
but can not entirely rule it out. otherwise winds will eventually
shift around to the north/northeast by early evening on tuesday
ahead of low pressure approaching the mid-mississippi valley.
slowed down the arrival of precipitation with the approaching
system...leaning more towards the nam. eventually will see rain
begin at all sites tuesday night...with aviation conditions
deteriorating as we transition to a wintry mix on wednesday.

outlook...non vfr becoming widespread late tuesday night and
continuing into wednesday night especially in the snow belt. non
vfr friday night into saturday.
&&

marine...
southwest winds of 10 to 20 knots will decrease through midday then
shift to the north by this evening. northerly winds will undergo
rapid strengthening from late tonight into wednesday as low pressure
deepens as it tracks through the ohio valley. the gradient really
tightens up over the southern lakes region between the system to the
south and high pressure strengthening over lake superior. a gale
watch has been issued for the whole lake for wednesday with 35-40
knot gales expected. gusts to 50 knots will be possible and some
movement of the ice sheet is expected.
winds will drop off considerably by thursday as high pressure builds
east across the region. southwesterly winds near 20 knots will
develop on friday ahead of low pressure passing north of the lakes.
the associated cold front will push south across the lake on
saturday.
&&

hydrology...
flow into the rivers will continue again today with some snow
melt flowing into a few of the area rivers. we are continuing to
monitor an ice jam along the chagrin river near willoughby. if it
continues to rise we may need to issue an areal flood warning. if
you live near the chagrin take any precautions needed to protect
your property.
otherwise there will be a period of rain tonight into wednesday
morning that will provide additional flow to all of the rivers.
any ice jams will need to be monitored closely. law enforcement
and emergency management from counties with rivers that flow into
lake erie will be needed to help with warning decisions.
another concern that could develop is the strong winds on the west
side of the low on wednesday. the strong northerly winds may bring
significant amounts of ice on lake erie back into the mouth of the
rivers and could add to the ice jam problems.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter storm watch from late tonight through late wednesday
night for ohz010>014-089.
winter storm watch from late tonight through wednesday evening
for ohz003-006>009-017>019.
winter storm watch from wednesday morning through late
wednesday night for ohz020>023-029>031.
winter storm watch from wednesday morning through wednesday
evening for ohz027-028-036-037.
pa...winter storm watch from late tonight through late wednesday
night for paz001>003.
marine...gale watch from wednesday morning through wednesday evening
for lez061-142>149-162>169.
&&
$$
synopsis...mullen
near term...mullen
short term...mullen
long term...kec
aviation...kec
marine...kec
hydrology...mullen

---

fzus51 kcle 110818
nshcle
nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
418 am edt tue mar 11 2014
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
lez142>146-111415-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh-
avon point to willowick oh-
418 am edt tue mar 11 2014

..gale watch in effect from wednesday morning through wednesday
evening...

today...southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. mostly
cloudy.

tonight...northeast winds 10 knots or less increasing to 15 to
25 knots overnight. a chance of rain in the evening...then rain and
snow overnight.

wednesday...northeast winds to 30 knots becoming north gales to
35 knots in the afternoon. rain and freezing rain in the morning.
snow.

wednesday night...north winds to 35 knot gales...decreasing to 15 to
25 knots. snow showers likely in the evening...then a chance of
snow showers overnight.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for thursday through saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 34 degrees...off cleveland 34
degrees and off erie 34 degrees.
$$
lez147>149-111415-
willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-
conneaut oh to ripley ny-
418 am edt tue mar 11 2014

..gale watch in effect from wednesday morning through wednesday
evening...

today...southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest 10 knots
or less. mostly cloudy.

tonight...northeast winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to
20 knots. a chance of rain in the evening...then rain overnight.

wednesday...northeast winds to 30 knots becoming north gales to
35 knots in the afternoon. rain and freezing rain in the morning.
snow.

wednesday night...north winds to 35 knot gales...decreasing to 20 to
25 knots. snow showers in the evening...then a chance of snow
showers overnight.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for thursday through saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 34 degrees...off cleveland 34 degrees
and off erie 34 degrees.
$$

---

Forecast.io Toledo hi-lo temp predictions

• today, Tue, Mar 11 : 44 and 37
• Wed, Mar 12 : 37 and 13
• Thu, Mar 13 : 24 and 0
• Fri, Mar 14 : 46 and 25
• Sat, Mar 15 : 42 and 33
• Sun, Mar 16 : 34 and 23
• Mon, Mar 17 : 30 and 16
• Tue, Mar 18 : 44 and 21

#toledo - #weather