Toledo Weather - Fri, Apr 4, 2014

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
408 am edt fri apr 4 2014

ohz003-006>008-017-018-027-050815-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-hancock-seneca-wyandot-
408 am edt fri apr 4 2014

...flood watch in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon...
...wind advisory in effect from 2 pm this afternoon to 11 pm edt
this evening...

this hazardous weather outlook is for northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

flood watch.
wind advisory.

.days two through seven...saturday through thursday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

flood watch
national weather service cleveland oh
325 am edt fri apr 4 2014

ohz003-006>008-017-018-027-041530-
/o.con.kcle.fa.a.0002.140404t0800z-140404t1800z/
/00000.0.er.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.oo/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-hancock-seneca-wyandot-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...findlay...tiffin...upper sandusky...carey
325 am edt fri apr 4 2014

...flood watch remains in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon...

the flood watch continues for

• a portion of northwest ohio...including the following areas...
  hancock...lucas...ottawa...sandusky...seneca...wood and
  wyandot.

• until 2 pm edt this afternoon

• additional rain is expected through noon today. even though
  rainfall amounts will be a third of an inch or less...the ground
  is saturated so any additional rainfall will cause additional
  rises in streams and rivers.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a flood watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. you should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. stay tuned to weather radio for further details or
updates

---

flood statement
national weather service cleveland oh
546 am edt fri apr 4 2014

...the flood warning continues for the following rivers in ohio...

portage river at woodville
black river at elyria
blanchard river near findlay
maumee river near grand rapids
maumee river at waterville
scioto river near larue
killbuck creek near killbuck
eagle creek above findlay

precautionary/preparedness actions...

never drive your car through flooded roadways. the water may be
deeper than it appears. turn around...don`t drown!

stay tuned to noaa weather radio and other local media for further
details and updates.

&&

ohc095-173-041746-
/o.con.kcle.fl.w.0028.140404t1952z-000000t0000z/
/grro1.2.er.140404t1952z.140406t0000z.000000t0000z.no/
546 am edt fri apr 4 2014

the flood warning continues for
the maumee river near grand rapids.
* from this afternoon until further notice.
* at 2:00 pm thursday the stage was 5.1 feet.
* flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* moderate flooding is forecast.
* forecast...rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and rise
to near 17.9 feet by saturday evening.
* at 16.5 feet...thurston state park flooded. low lying land near
grand rapids floods.
* at 15.0 feet...lowland flooding near the town of grand rapids and
secondary roads.

$$

flood warning
flood statement
national weather service cleveland oh
546 am edt fri apr 4 2014

...the flood warning continues for the following rivers in ohio...

portage river at woodville
black river at elyria
blanchard river near findlay
maumee river near grand rapids
maumee river at waterville
scioto river near larue
killbuck creek near killbuck
eagle creek above findlay

precautionary/preparedness actions...

never drive your car through flooded roadways. the water may be
deeper than it appears. turn around...don`t drown!

stay tuned to noaa weather radio and other local media for further
details and updates.

&&

ohc095-173-041746-
/o.con.kcle.fl.w.0029.140404t1101z-000000t0000z/
/wtvo1.2.er.140404t1101z.140406t0600z.000000t0000z.no/
546 am edt fri apr 4 2014

the flood warning continues for
the maumee river at waterville.
* until further notice.
* at 5:00 am friday the stage was 8.7 feet.
* flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* moderate flooding is forecast.
* forecast...rise above flood stage this morning and rise to near
12.8 feet by early sunday morning.
* at 12.0 feet...the side cut metro park is inundated.
* at 9.0 feet...flooding occurs in lowland areas near the river.

---

short term forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
712 am edt fri apr 4 2014

ohz003-006>014-018>023-030>033-038-089-paz002-003-041315-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-holmes-ashtabula lakeshore-
southern erie-crawford pa-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...mentor...chardon...
jefferson...tiffin...norwalk...medina...akron...ravenna...
warren...ashland...wooster...canton...youngstown...millersburg...
ashtabula...edinboro...meadville
712 am edt fri apr 4 2014

.now...

areas of dense fog are reducing visibilities to a quarter of a
mile or less in some locations. the fog will gradually lift over the
next few hours as the wind starts to increase from the south and
rain begins to fall.

---

urgent - weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
333 am edt fri apr 4 2014

...a cold front crossing the area will bring strong winds this
afternoon and evening...

ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037-041545-
/o.new.kcle.wi.y.0002.140404t1800z-140405t0300z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-
crawford-richland-marion-morrow-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...
upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...marion...
mount gilead
333 am edt fri apr 4 2014

...wind advisory in effect from 2 pm this afternoon to 11 pm edt
this evening...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a wind
advisory...which is in effect from 2 pm this afternoon to 11 pm
edt this evening.

• winds...20 to 30 mph with gusts around 45 mph.

• timing...2 pm this afternoon through 11 pm tonight.

• impacts...loose objects may be blow around and driving high
  profile vehicles may be difficult.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a wind advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be
31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. winds of
these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra
precautions. motorists in high profile vehicles should use
caution until the winds subside. stay tuned to noaa weather radio
for further details or updates.

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Apr 4, 2014 6:14 am

Today: Showers and thunderstorms before 4pm, then a slight chance of showers between 4pm and 5pm. Areas of fog before 9am. High near 55. Breezy, with an east wind 6 to 11 mph becoming southwest 19 to 24 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: A chance of rain showers before 1am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Breezy, with a west wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. West wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the morning.

Sunday Night: A slight chance of rain after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Rain, mainly after 8am. High near 48. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday Night: Rain. Low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. Breezy.

---

fxus61 kcle 041016
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
615 am edt fri apr 4 2014

synopsis...
low pressure lifting across michigan will pull a cold front across
the area today...followed by a reinforcing cold front tonight. high
pressure will move across ohio early sunday then a low will quickly
move northeast across ohio monday night. high pressure over the
plains will slowly move east up the ohio valley wednesday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm friday evening/...
northern shield of shra with convective complex near the oh river
working ne across the sw third of the cwa. the stronger convection
further to the south this morning will continue act as a cutoff for
the low level jet and keep the heavier precip further south. have
adjusted pop and qpf to account for this.
locally dense fog has begun to improve in the sw and this
improvement will continue to work ne over the next few hours. after
8 am...daytime heating will add in to help lessen the fog.
threat for tsra still exists today but airmass appears to be having
a hard time trying to warm enough to get severe storms as better
convection expected to stay south of the cwa.
a windy day is in store for the area as the cold front makes its way
across the region. gusts to 45 mph seem likely in the west so an
advisory has been issued for this from fropa time until the end of
the evening when winds should start settling down some.
high temps today tricky as mos guidance based on skies staying
fairly cloudy. any sunshine will make a big difference. warm sector
trying to get pinched off in the north so mid 60s may be hard to
come by there.
&&

short term /6 pm friday evening through monday night/...
cold advection with windy conditions...especially near leri tonight
into midday sat. 850 mb winds mainly 40 knots tonight so don't
expect many gusts of 45 mph beyond where the wind advisory will be
in the west during the evening.
wrap moisture with the upper low and colder air to mainly affect the
snowbelt. shra should change to shsn or a mix of shsnra. sct and
light nature of precip along with precip type should only allow for
a half an inch or less of accumulation late tonight and sat morning
for the snowbelt most places. dryer air with high pressure moving in
later sat should put an end to lingering shsnra as the afternoon
progresses. highs sat may not even make it to 40 in parts of the
snowbelt while the sw should recover to be close to 50 degrees.
the high crossing the area will provide dry but seasonally below
normal temps sat night. more temp moderation takes place sun but
there may be a lake breeze near leri so will continue to reflect the
cooler temps near the lake.
this dry spell will also be short-lived as another low will rapidly
move nne from the lwr ms valley to cross oh mon eve. the models have
slowed the arrival of rain with this system since yesterday's runs.
may not see anything until after 12z mon. given track of sfc and
upper low it looks like another good widespread rain across the cwa
with seasonally cool temps...especially for lakeshore counties from
tol to cle as ne winds come off of the chilly lake.
colder air wraps in behind the low mon night while the upper trough
should be right over the area. will have to watch to see if airmass
temps can get just cold enough for a changeover to some wet snow by
the end of the night.
&&

long term /tuesday through thursday/...
about a 12 hour difference between the models on tuesday as low
pressure moves into ny. in any event it appears there will be higher
chances of rain through at least tuesday morning. it again looks
like there may be just enough cold air for some snow to mix in the
the rain showers that linger into wednesday morning. high pressure
returns for wednesday night but it will be nudged quickly southward
on thursday as low pressure moves across western ontario. this
should help to increase the southwest winds and bring some warmth
back to the region.
highs will be cooler than average tuesday into wednesday with highs
ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. warmer by thursday with
highs near to slightly above seasonal averages.
&&

aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
very moist airmass covers the region tonight and expect it to
remain that way through the morning. ifr and lower conditions will
occur at most locations. the only exception will be for the erie
area until between 10z and 12z when winds begin to swing around to
a southerly direction.
rain will spread into the region from southwest to northeast
through mid morning. there could be some embedded thunder and have
covered this with a vicinity thunder mention in the tafs. the
better chance of thunder will occur along a cold front that will
sweep across the area through the day. as the front passes winds
will increase and may gust in the 35 to 40 knot range. the
strongest winds appear that they will be across the western half
of the region.
otherwise we will monitor for some low level wind shear through
the morning as the low level jet noses into at least central ohio.
will add this potential with amendments as needed.

outlook...non vfr possible ne oh/nw pa into saturday. ifr
possible all areas monday afternoon into tuesday.
&&

marine...
low pressure will deepen today is it moves from the western great
lakes into ontario by this evening. winds just ahead of the front
will increase to around 30 knots with stronger winds expected in the
wake of the front. so with that said we have hoisted the gale
warning for the lake. kept start times same as the previous forecast
with 4pm west and 10pm east. as high pressure moves onto the lake
saturday winds should subside fairly quick. the high will move east
of the region on sunday allowing the next storm system to move
northeast from the gulf coast. northeast to east winds will be on
the increase sunday night and continue into monday. this low will be
east of lake erie by tuesday morning with nw to north winds expected
in its wake.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...flood watch through this afternoon for ohz009>011-019>023-
028>033-036>038-047.
flood watch until 2 pm edt this afternoon for ohz003-006>008-
017-018-027.
wind advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 11 pm edt this
evening for ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037.
pa...none.
marine...gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 10 am edt saturday for
lez061-147>149-167>169.
gale warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt saturday for
lez142>146-162>166.
&&
$$
synopsis...adams
near term...adams
short term...adams
long term...mullen
aviation...mullen
marine...mullen

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#toledo - #weather