Toledo Weather - Tue, May 13, 2014

md 0595 concerning severe potential...watch unlikely for parts of srn lower mi/wrn oh/much of indiana and adjacent nrn ky

mesoscale discussion 0595
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1137 am cdt tue may 13 2014

areas affected...parts of srn lower mi/wrn oh/much of indiana and
adjacent nrn ky

concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely

valid 131637z - 131830z

probability of watch issuance...20 percent

summary...thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through
the afternoon as the pre-frontal airmass gradually destabilizes.
though a few marginally severe hail or wind events will be possible
with stronger cells...ww is not anticipated.

discussion...latest radar loop shows convection gradually increasing
in a band from srn lower mi sswwd into swrn indiana...along the
slowly advancing surface cold front. objective analyses indicate
moderate destabilization ongoing ahead of the front/storms...as a
relatively cloud-free warm sector permits continued diurnal heating
of the moist boundary layer /upper 60s dewpoints/.

though the thermodynamic environment will support additional
increases in storm coverage/intensity...deep-layer wind field should
remain somewhat of a limiting factor with respect to widespread
severe potential. strongest flow aloft will be confined to the cool
side of the front...while mid-level wind vectors remain aligned
roughly parallel with the front/convective band. as such...somewhat
weakly organized storms are expected with little ewd
propagation/acceleration off the front. thus...with only isolated
severe risk expected...ww will likely remain unnecessary across the
region.

..goss/mead.. 05/13/2014

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...iln...dtx...lmk...iwx...grr...ind...pah...

lat...lon 43608369 43378234 40898334 38468511 37608646 37608778
39628724 41508591 43298490 43608369

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short term forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
303 pm edt tue may 13 2014

ohz003-006>008-132015-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont
303 pm edt tue may 13 2014

.now...
showers and thunderstorms will be moving into the area through
the afternoon. some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe
with locally heavy rainfall.

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Statement as of 3:53 PM EDT on May 13, 2014
...A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for Monroe County until 430 PM EDT...

At 351 PM EDT...severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Wyandotte to Monroe...and moving northeast at 50 mph.

Hazard...60 mph wind gusts.

Source...radar indicated.

Impact...expect damage to roofs...siding and trees.

---

md 0596 concerning severe potential...watch unlikely for parts of ern indiana and adjacent nwrn oh

mesoscale discussion 0596
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0300 pm cdt tue may 13 2014

areas affected...parts of ern indiana and adjacent nwrn oh

concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely

valid 132000z - 132200z

probability of watch issuance...20 percent

summary...strong/isolated severe storms continue ahead of the cold
front. isolated gusts near severe levels will remain possible with
strongest cells.

discussion...visible satellite imagery shows an outflow boundary
moving ewd across ern indiana attm...with a second arcing outflow
crossing nwrn oh. these two boundaries are associated with the most
active clusters of storms right now -- one crossing sern lower mi
and the other advancing across ern indiana toward wrn oh. the most
vigorous activity s of the lower mi convective cluster /which has
started shifting into ontario/ is ongoing near the intersection of
these two boundaries /invof adams and jay counties in indiana and
adjacent van wert...paulding...and mercer counties in oh/ -- where
locally gusty winds near severe levels are possible over the next
hour.

that said...storms overall however have remained largely
disorganized...redeveloping along outflows as cool air repeatedly
undercuts ongoing storms leading to successive new updraft
development farther e. expect similar trends to continue over the
next few hours...before storms begin to gradually decrease due to
diurnal influences.

..goss/mead.. 05/13/2014

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...iln...iwx...ind...

lat...lon 41668256 40618291 39708482 40038524 41148499 41718414
41668256

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