Toledo Weather - Wed, Jul 16, 2014

Jul 16, 2014 12:52 pm
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 64 F
Humidity : 58%
Wind Speed : NW 9 mph - Gust 17 mph
Barometer : 29.99 in
Dewpoint: 49 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

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Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jul 16, 2014 9:26 am

This Afternoon: Scattered showers, mainly after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. West wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. Northwest wind 6 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. North wind around 6 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. Light and variable wind.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 81.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 83.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.

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fxus61 kcle 161417
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1017 am edt wed jul 16 2014

synopsis...
an upper level trough will swing across the great lakes today
kicking off a few showers. high pressure will build over the area
thursday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
scattered lake enhanced showers continue across the ne ohio
counties and raised pops especially for geauga and ashtabula
counties for the next several hours. an extensive cloud deck can
be seen on visible satellite extending from lake huron to nrn
indiana and will continue to spread se with time. between the
approaching cloud deck and increased clouds due to diurnal
heating...expect skies to be mostly cloudy for much of the day.
temperatures are tricky today and will depend a lot on the cloud
cover. weak cold advection will continue with the 12z dtx sounding
showing a pocket of air at 870mb of 5c. tweaked temperatures down
a few degrees most areas into the upper 60s...especially nw ohio
where cloud cover is expected to be fairly thick and ne ohio where
the showers have already been ongoing this morning. the july sun
is strong this time of year though so any areas that do not cloud
up could reach or exceed 70.
original discussion... upper level trough now over southern lake
michigan will swing across the area today producing scattered
showers. trough will swing east of the area late this afternoon.
today will feel more like fall than the middle of summer with
unseasonably cool temps. most places the temps will barely make it
into the lower 70s.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/...
this evening after the upper level trough swings east of the area
expect the development of some lake effect showers. the lake to
850 mb temperature difference will be around 16 degrees which may
be unstable enough to produce showers tonight. the ridge builds
over the area thursday...but could well see a few showers into
thursday morning. high pressure will be centered over the forecast
area thursday afternoon. the high shifts east of the area on
friday allowing a southerly flow to develop leading to a gradual
warming trend. models still differ on saturday. ecmwf continues to
move wave into the area saturday...while gfs slower and holds off
the precip until sunday night into sunday. for now will just keep
chance pops going.
&&

long term /sunday through tuesday/...
an upper level low pressure system will persist over the forecast
area through the forecast period keeping a slight chance for
unsettled weather going into the middle of the week.
surface low pressure will be present through the period as well and
will be associated with persistent moisture across the area. a
series of upper level positive vorticity maximums are also progged
to move through the region and these too could aid in some brief
periods of convection that could develop especially sunday into
tuesday. may need to make some adjustments down the road as trends
begin to take shape. otherwise...will not be making major changes
with this package.
as upper level and surface based low pressure systems settle into
the area...warm air advection is expected to take place and bring a
return back to some warm and humid air. as moisture increases over
the region...muggier conditions will prevail along with warmer
overnight lows. trended temperatures for maximum and minimum upward
a few degrees to account for this trend.
&&

aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
showers continue to develop along area of convergence along the
lake shore from cleveland east. convergent area will shift from
the wet to east orientation to a more northwest direction later
today. i anticipate the showers will end for a period today and
then redevelop up near erie for a few hours this afternoon.
otherwise...rest of the area should remain dry. vfr should be the
rule all areas. expecting some fog to develop at akron canton
around 09z down to 2 miles and also at youngstown down to 3 miles.
otherwise...vfr rest of the sites.
outlook...non vfr possible ne oh/nw pa saturday and sunday in
showers/thunderstorms.
&&

marine...
will keep the small craft advisory going through the mid morning
hours as winds were still around 20 knots. expecting them to
diminish this morning and drop below small craft criteria for waves
by mid morning. due to the higher wave action along the nearshore
from cleveland east...will also mention the moderate risk of rip
currents. west of cleveland...waves will likely be in the 2 to 4
foot range but decided to keep small craft advisory up there to
account for the pockets of higher waves around 4 feet. expecting
both rip current risk and small craft risk to diminish by mid day
for the most part and be finished by 2 pm this afternoon.
the rest of the forecast period looks like it will be fairly quiet
on the lake as high pressure begins to build east across the region.
waves will subside to 2 feet or less by tonight and remain that way
through the rest of the period.
we still have a risk for waterspouts on the lake through thursday
morning. unstable atmosphere with the cold air aloft over the warm
lake will make for ideal conditions for waterspouts to form. most
likely locations will be where areas of convergence develop to
produce showers. stay well clear of showers in the event waterspouts
form. numerous sitings may be possible today.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...djb
near term...djb/kec
short term...djb
long term...lombardy
aviation...lombardy
marine...lombardy

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fxus63 kiwx 161643
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1243 pm edt wed jul 16 2014

synopsis...
issued at 329 am edt wed jul 16 2014
low pressure centered over quebec will result in another
unseasonably cool day across our area today. highs will only be
in the upper 60s and lower 70s...with a few light showers
possible. high pressure will build into the area tonight
resulting in light winds and diminishing cloud cover. temperatures
will remain chilly for mid-summer... with lows in the upper 40s
and lower 50s.
&&

short term...(this afternoon through thursday)
issued at 612 am edt wed jul 16 2014
deep vertically stacked low centered over swrn quebec contg to
cause fall-like wx conditions this morning with rather moist
cyclonic low level flow across the grtlks. water vapor also
indicating several wk vort maxes dropping s-se through the
backside of mid level trof. these conditions should persist
through much of today resulting in considerable cloudiness and a
few light showers... mainly this aftn. temps should be similar to
yday with highs in the u60s/l70s... which is near record low-maxes
for the date. by this eve subsidence associated with ridging
building into the area from the west should allow for some
clearing... spreading eastward across the cwa overnight. although
temps aloft should be a little warmer tonight... radiational
cooling associated with diminishing winds/clouds should allow for
better radiational cooling conditions than current night prbly
resulting in a little cooler mins... in the u40s/l50s... which
will be close to record lows for the date.
&&

long term...(thursday night through tuesday)
issued at 612 am edt wed jul 16 2014
dry and pleasant weather to start this long term period. low level
anticyclone will be directly overhead on thursday with gradual
airmass modification under july sun pushing highs into the mid 70s.
some diurnal cu expected but not to the extent of previous periods
given quickly exiting trough. just partly cloudy skies currently
forecasted. more decent radiational cooling potential thursday night
with very light gradient and mostly clear skies. warmer start
thursday evening and slightly higher dewpoints may prevent us from
touching the 40s again but mid 50s look easily attainable and lower
50s not out of the question in a few spots.
temps slowly increase into next week as weak southerly flow
gradually increases behind exiting low level ridge. no good waa/deep
southwest flow in the foreseeable future though. the best we will
get is temps around normal for mid-late july. a few outside chances
for rain but nothing substantial. extrapolation of 00z nam12
suggests rain chances on saturday with approaching shortwave but all
of the other 00z counterparts keep this wave and the associated
moisture advection far enough south/southeast for a dry forecast.
gfs40 convective schemes also get very active beginning sunday
afternoon with surface dewpoints in the low 70s. not sure dewpoints
will get quite that high in the weak s/se low level flow. also no
synoptic forcing to speak of. a few afternoon showers/thunderstorms
may certainly be possible...especially toward the middle of next
week...but confidence in any one period is just too low at this
juncture for blanket mention.
&&

aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z thursday afternoon)
issued at 1243 pm edt wed jul 16 2014
mainly vfr strato cu deck expected to slowly thin/lift this
afternoon under thermal trough/cyclonic flow. this in combination
with a weak vort max dropping through on backside of trough axis
may be enough to generate iso -shra this afternoon at
fwa...although coverage/confidence/impact remains too low for a
shra mention in tafs. height rises/subsidence in wake of trough
will promote clearing skies/light winds tonight-thursday as sfc
high pressure builds in.
&&

iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
mi...none.
oh...none.
lm...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...jt
short term...jt
long term...agd
aviation...steinwedel
visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx (all lower case)
follow us on facebook...twitter...and youtube at:
www.facebook.com/us.nationalweatherservice.northernin.gov
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/nwsnorthernindiana

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fxus63 kdtx 161057
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
657 am edt wed jul 16 2014

aviation...
//discussion...
cool northwest flow will continue over lower michigan on the heels
of low pressure moving eastward through southern quebec. an mvfr
ceiling has settled over most of the taf sites during the overnight
hours. current observations show this should continue south to the
metro airports with a few-sct deck in place at 11z. daytime heating
this morning will initially contribute to greater coverage
of mvfr stratocu generated by mixing of low level moisture within
thermal trough...then help lift ceiling more firmly into vfr by
afternoon. a gradual clearing trend will be promoted by high
pressure advancing into lower michigan during the evening hours.
//dtw threshold threats...
* high confidence in ceilings at or below 5000 ft today.
&&

prev discussion...issued 349 am edt wed jul 16 2014
short term...today and tonight
the central great lakes will be underneath a cold upper level trough
this morning as seen on water vapor imagery. the main core of the
trough can also be seen exiting the great lakes to the
north...currently over the ontario/quebec border and headed through
quebec. 850 mb temperatures will still in the single digits...which
happens to be about where the top of todays mixing will take place.
this puts daytime highs right around 70 degrees which is about 15
degrees below normal and around the record low maximum for the day.
the cold air in place also means that any clearing we have this
morning will quickly lead to diurnal cumulus clouds. the
aforementioned trough and shortwaves rounding the trough will assist
in shower development this afternoon with a general 30 percent
chance for showers across the area.
the main trough exits to the east tonight...allowing ridging to
build out to the west...clearing out the clouds as subsidence...the
loss of daytime heating and drier air move in. with clearing skies
under the cold airmass and light winds...overnight lows will tumble
to around 50 degrees outside of the detroit metro area.
long term...wednesday through next monday
the deep mid level closed circulation has lifted well off to the nw
through quebec by thursday morning...although the remnant trough
will still linger over the state into the weekend. this is partly
due to a developing split flow regime...albeit a weak one...over the
conus. with all the noam jet energy exiting off the east coast...we
are left with a weak zonal northern stream across canada and a weak
southern stream shortwave diving se from the central rockies into
the southern plains down east side of the ridge. this locks the mid
level cold pool...whats left of it...over the great lakes into the
weekend. strengthening ridge over the sw conus and western atlantic
try to merge together across the southern states which block any
attempts of the jet to work back southward. with the great lakes
caught under to the trapped cool air aloft...with high pressure at
the sfc and only weak zonal flow...expect only a slowly moderating
trend in temperatures through the weekend. subsidence from the high
will help clear skies out thursday...outside of an afternoon cu
field resulting from the elevated sfc moisture content...which will
aide in the slow temperature recovery.
for the weekend...the sfc high will drift eastward allow southerly
flow to return to the area. this will allow some moisture and warm
air advection into lower mi. meanwhile...the aforementioned southern
stream shortwave will be tracking ne from the tennessee valley into
the ohio valley. models have kept this track close enough to se mi
to have the nw edge of the deformation region brushing metro detroit
on saturday. with weak troughing/cool air aloft still...moisture
advection returning in the low level...and this shortwave nearby...
models are all generating low pops for sunday and beyond. will just
keep a low slight chance pop for the end of the period until some
detail can be resolved.
marine...
the cold upper level trough axis will hold over the region into the
weekend though it will be filling in throughout the period. with the
cold air aloft...conditions will still be favorable for waterspouts
until this afternoon with scattered showers through this evening.
broad area of high pressure will start building into the region
later today which will encompass the region thursday and into the
weekend. this will bring light winds and calm seas back to the
eastern great lakes.
&&

dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
mi waters of lake erie...none.
&&
$$
aviation.....kurimski
short term...kurimski
long term....drk
marine.......drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit (all lower case).

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fzus51 kcle 161650 cca
nshcle
nearshore marine forecast...corrected
national weather service cleveland oh
942 am edt wed jul 16 2014
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
lez142>145-162015-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh-
942 am edt wed jul 16 2014

this afternoon...northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. partly
sunny with isolated showers. a chance of waterspouts. waves 1 to
3 feet.

tonight...northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north 10 knots or
less. mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. a chance of
waterspouts. waves 2 feet or less.

thursday...north winds less than 10 knots. mostly sunny. a chance
of waterspouts in the morning. waves 2 feet or less.

thursday night...southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south.
partly cloudy. waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for friday through sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 72 degrees...off cleveland 71 degrees
and off erie 74 degrees.
$$
lez146>149-162015-
avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-
on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny-
942 am edt wed jul 16 2014

..rip current risk in effect until 3 pm edt...

this afternoon...northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. partly
sunny with scattered showers. a chance of waterspouts. waves 2 to
4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. there is a moderate risk of rip
currents today.

tonight...west winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north 10 knots or less.
mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. a chance of
waterspouts. waves 1 to 3 feet.

thursday...north winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. mostly
sunny. a chance of waterspouts in the morning. waves 2 feet or less.

thursday night...west winds 10 knots or less becoming south. partly
cloudy. waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for friday through sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 72 degrees...off cleveland 71 degrees
and off erie 74 degrees.

---

flus41 kcle 160841 cca
hwocle
hazardous weather outlook...corrected
national weather service cleveland oh
438 am edt wed jul 16 2014
ohz011-012-089-paz001-170845-
cuyahoga-lake-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-
438 am edt wed jul 16 2014

..rip current risk in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon...
this hazardous weather outlook is for northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania.

day one...today and tonight.
please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.
moderate risk of rip currents.

days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.
no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

spotter information statement...
spotter activation is not expected at this time.
$$
ohz003-006>010-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-paz002-003-170845-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-geauga-ashtabula inland-
hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-wyandot-crawford-
richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
southern erie-crawford pa-
438 am edt wed jul 16 2014
this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

day one...today and tonight.
no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.
no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

spotter information statement...
spotter activation is not expected at this time.
$$

for lake erie.

day one...today and tonight.
please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.
moderate risk of rip currents.
there is a chance for waterspouts today and tonight. numerous
waterspouts are possible...especially in showers.

days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.
waterspouts are possible thursday morning. otherwise...no other
hazardous weather is expected.
$$
lombardy

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