Afd may 10 2015 morning

link
fxus61 kcle 101122
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
722 am edt sun may 10 2015

synopsis...
a stationary front just northwest of the area will move little
through today. a warm front will lift north across the area this
evening and become stationary over lake erie overnight. low pressure
will move east along the stationary front monday dragging a cold
front across the area monday evening. a trough extending from the
low will slide south across the area tuesday night into wednesday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
minor update to hourly temperatures and dew points.
otherwise...scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected
through the day.
previous discussion...
strong warm air advection will move north into the forecast area
through the day today. an upper level positive vorticity maximum in
an elongated formation will slide east this afternoon and evening
with a fairly good swath of moisture associated with it. some
moisture will be around the area through the day and with
instability increasing with day time heating...scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop across the area. however...with the upper
level vorticity maximum moving into the region...this should be a
focusing mechanism to cause showers and thunderstorms to develop
over the west and move east with the feature. at this time...will
keep mention of precipitation as a chance pops for today. may need
to up the pops in the west if the activity becomes a bit more robust.
precipitation amounts are tough to call due to the scattered
activity but generally speaking...around a tenth of an inch is
possible throughout many of the basins with locally much higher
amounts. if we get more sun than expected...temperatures could soar
again well into the 80s for highs since we are still in the same air
mass as the last couple days.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through wednesday night/...
upper level ridging will begin to shift to the east tonight allowing
upper level trough axis to move east toward the area by monday.
surface low pressure will intensify as it moves east due to the
upper level trough becoming negatively tilted across the forecast
area. a warm front is progged to lift north of the area by tonight
and then become nearly stationary over the central lakes. low
pressure will move east along the front and drag a cold front east
toward the region on monday evening. forecast area remains in the
warm air mass on monday ahead of the front. pre cold frontal trough
will likely develop and could become the focusing mechanism for the
development of a line of showers and thunderstorms. the potential
exists due to timing of this activity and max heating for strong
damaging winds and large hail. severe threat in the extreme west may
even include tornadoes before sunset due to the close proximity to
the low pressure system and stationary front extending east from the
low. will have to monitor this situation over the next 36 hours to
see how it develops.
otherwise...low pressure moves east of the area by tuesday forcing
the cold front to push east of the region as well. this will usher
in some much cooler air by wednesday and wednesday night. high
pressure will begin to build in from the west and this should bring
an end to the precipitation threat.
warm temperatures continue tonight through monday and then cooling
down monday night through wednesday night in the cold air advection.
&&

long term /thursday through saturday/...
not many changes to the long term this morning. the period will
start with high pressure over the area. this will result in another
cool and dry day thursday. the high will slide off to the east by
friday and the next question is how fast precip will return to the
area. the new guidance shows a warm front developing to the south
and then lifting north into the area by the start of the weekend.
could see some precip at the sw end of the area by friday evening
and all areas by saturday morning. both the 00z ecmwf and gfs show
a large area of precip over the region on saturday so may eventually
need higher than chance pops. temps by saturday will be back to
seasonable values.
&&

aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
some showers continue to move up the i-71 corridor. they have
shown some weakening and should pass to the east of kcle and kmfd
the next hour or so. the new guidance continues to hint at precip
breaking out around midday in nw oh and then elsewhere later in
the afternoon. probably will see scattered showers with just a few
embedded thunderstorms. as has been the case the past few
days...timing and location will be tough to pinpoint. the fog at
ktol should improve quickly this morning. light flow will become s
to sw later this morning and increase to 10 to 15 knots. things
should quiet down this evening. will have to watch for more patchy
fog and possibly mvfr cigs late in the taf period.

outlook...non vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms through
monday night.
&&

marine...
lake erie is expected to be relatively quiet through monday as warm
air advection rides up over the lakes cold dome that is in place. a
cold front will eventually cross the lake some monday night into
tuesday. this will cause the pressure gradient to increase and
could prompt the issuance of a small craft. winds gradually diminish
tuesday night through thursday as high pressure builds east across
the lake.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...lombardy
near term...lombardy
short term...lombardy
long term...kubina
aviation...kubina
marine...kubina

#toledo #weather