Toledo weather Sun Jun 7 2015

#toledo #weather

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
415 am edt sun jun 7 2015

lez142-143-162-163-ohz003-006>008-017-018-027-080815-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach-
lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands-lucas-wood-
ottawa-sandusky-hancock-seneca-wyandot-
415 am edt sun jun 7 2015

this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie and northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon into the evening. the threat for severe thunderstorms
will be associated with a thunderstorm complex. right now...it is
too early to determine where exactly the complex will move through
the area. the main threat will be damaging winds.

.days two through seven...monday through saturday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed.

$$

Tol
Jun 7, 2015 5:52 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 49 F
Humidity : 97%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 29.99 in
Dewpoint: 48 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
External Link : 3-day history

(near Lambertville)
Jun 7, 2015 5:35 am
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 52 F
Humidity : 88%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.00 in
Dewpoint: 48 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

---

spc ac 070559

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1259 am cdt sun jun 07 2015

valid 071200z - 081200z

...there is an enh risk of svr tstms today into this evening across
parts of northern and central illinois...northern and central
indiana...and extreme southwest lower michigan...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms surrounding the enh risk area
across the southern great lakes and oh valley through the lower mo
valley to parts of the central and southern high plains...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms extending from the great lakes
and oh valley to the central and southern high plains...

...summary...
severe thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of the lower
great lakes and ohio valley region to the central and southern high
plains...with the greatest potential across northern and central
portions of illinois and indiana...and far southwest lower michigan.

...synopsis...
a midlevel speed max will cross portions of the middle/upper ms
valley and great lakes region on the south side of a
broad/amplifying trough across the upper/middle ms valley and great
lakes region. a related surface low will advance across parts of
nrn wi and upper mi into adjacent ontario...reaching swrn quebec by
12z monday. a cold front extending sw of the surface low to the co
rockies front range will advance east and south toward lower
mi...into the midwest...lower mo valley and through the central
plains. the leading edge of the warm sector will advance nnewd
across srn and ern portions of the great lakes region...establishing
a broad corridor of rich gulf return moisture ahead of the cold
front. meanwhile...a midlevel trough will elongate ene/wsw over
parts of the great basin to central rockies...between flanking
ridges over the srn plains and nwrn states.

...srn great lakes/oh and mid ms valleys...
an ongoing mcs...possibly producing strong to severe storms...should
be moving through ern wi...far nrn il and west-central il per recent
hrrr runs/00z nam/12z ecmwf. moderate-strong instability is
expected across the warm sector...given low-level moistening
/surface dew points in the mid-upper 60s/ as far east as srn lower
mi and wrn oh and diabatic heating. the leading extent of the early
morning mcs should re-intensify it reaches swrn lower mi and nrn il
/including the chicago metro area/ by early afternoon. effective
bulk shear of 30-35 kt oriented generally parallel to the convective
outflow boundary suggests line segments/bowing structures as the
primary storm mode with damaging winds the primary threat.
however...enhanced low-level shear along modestly strong swly
low-level winds will favor a tornado threat.

the potential exists for afternoon storms to congeal into a
wsw/ene-elongated quasi-linear mcs through the early evening hours.
this activity should be largely oriented parallel to the mean
cloud-layer flow...while gradually spreading esewd/sewd into parts
of central il...central indiana...nwrn oh...sern il and parts of wrn
oh. damaging winds and marginally severe hail will remain possible
with this activity as convection regenerates/spreads into a
moist/moderately unstable air mass.

...portions of nrn/central mo wwd to ern co...
ascent supporting convection will be primarily confined to low-level
convergence processes related to the cold front and the trailing
extent of the outflow boundary attendant to the wi/nrn il mcs as it
settles swd. isolated to widely scattered tstms will likely develop
near these boundaries and wwd to diurnally enhanced orographic
circulations over the co front range and moist/upslope flow to its
e. the presence of 25-35 kt of deep shear will have the potential to
support organized/sustained convective structures/possible
supercells. in the absence of a strong equatorward surge of low
theta-e air...convection should also evolve behind the cold front in
parts of e-cntrl co into nrn ks and perhaps far srn neb where
post-frontal directional-flow variability in the low-levels will
bolster deep shear /potential for organized storms/. a
strengthening swly llj from ok into sern ks and mo may aid in
sustaining tstms through the evening into the early overnight period
across sern ks to central mo with a lingering threat for strong to
severe storms.

..peters/dean.. 06/07/2015

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z

---

link
fxus61 kcle 071144
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
744 am edt sun jun 7 2015

synopsis...
high pressure over the coast of maine will continue to move east
today. a cold front will move east over the area late tonight into
monday morning. a trough of low pressure will follow the cold front
and linger over the area through monday night. a ridge of high
pressure will build east tuesday and wednesday into the local area.
another cold front will move east across the area wednesday night.

&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
current forecast looks reasonable so will only make some minor
changes to the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
east. decided to take this out as best chance will be in the west
ahead of the cold front.

latest spc discussion talks about possible convective system
moving east across the area later this afternoon and evening.
still not sure exactly where this thing will track at this time.
latest satellite imagery shows the coldest cloud tops starting to
take a dive toward the southeast. if this trend continues...then
bulk of activity may remain south of the forecast area.

previous discussion...
a warm front will lift north across the local area this morning.
warm air advection will take place across the forecast area today
in the wake of high pressure. the warm air advection will bring
with it an increase in dew points resulting in higher humidity.
dew points should climb into the middle 60s all areas except
extreme east by this afternoon. due to the instability...cant rule
out a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. as warm air
advection takes place...expecting highs to be much warmer than
yesterday and should max out in the middle 80s west to upper 70s
in the east. south to southwest flow behind the warm front should
keep the lake breeze at bay during the day.

&&

short term /6 pm this evening through wednesday night/...
cold front approaches from the west this evening and showers and
thunderstorms associated with the cold front will spread from west
to east. severe thunderstorm threat appears it should remain over
the western portions of the area tonight. the storm prediction
center brings the enhanced risk as far east as the indiana ohio
border and a slight risk over the western quarter of the forecast
area. cold frontal passage will occur around sunrise tomorrow
morning. the front will push east and will be followed by a trough
of low pressure. the trough will linger over the area through monday
night.

a weak ridge of high pressure is expected to build east over the
forecast area tuesday with a return back to fair weather. this will
be short lived as yet another cold front approaches from the west to
the forecast area wednesday night. the front is expected be very
moisture starved but cant rule out a few showers or thunderstorms
along the area of convergence with the front.

lows overnight ahead of the cold front should be quite
mild...especially in the east. some locations may stay around 70 for
lows. further west...as showers and thunderstorms along with the
beginning of the cold air advection arrives...expecting lows to be a
bit cooler there. air mass behind the cold front is not very cold at
all and expecting to see temperatures drop back into the 70s for
highs monday and 60s for lows monday night. warm air advection
returns by wednesday as ridge moves east of the region.

&&

long term /thursday through saturday/...
models differ on the locations of a weakening cold front as it
crosses the area wednesday night into thursday. for now will go with
slight chances in the grids and adjust the forecast as we get closer
to thursday. upper level ridging then increases but the lower levels
will become more humid. afternoon heating may be enough to generate
a few thunderstorms but without a trigger under the increasing 5h
heights it seems difficult to go with more than isolated to
scattered thunder chances. the lake breeze could play a roll for
convective development on friday. have gone with
afternoon/evening thunder chances through the long term.

the increased upper level heights mentioned above should lead to
warm conditions. believe the entire region will see highs in the
80s.

&&

aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
drier air remains in place as high pressure moves eastward across
ny state. southerly winds this morning. winds will become gusty
by afternoon across the west and central portions of the area. vfr
conditions are expected through the day with only a few cumulus
during the afternoon. the cumulus will generally be across the
west but could develop across the central late afternoon. as a
cold front moves closer to the region late sunday afternoon into
the evening hours some thunderstorms will be possible...mainly
across nw ohio. most locations will not see any thunder until
after dark.

outlook...non vfr at times monday with showers and thunderstorms.
showers and thunderstorms may bring non vfr conditions back to
the region wednesday night into thursday.

&&

marine...
high pressure over the eastern great lakes will move off the east
coast today. southerly winds will increase ahead of a cold front
today with winds approaching small craft criteria across the western
basin this afternoon. later shifts will need to monitor this. the
cold front will cross the lake on monday with increased waves due to
the longer fetch across lake erie. at this point it appears the
waves will remain just under small craft advisory criteria. however
the swimming risk will reach the moderate category on monday for the
central and eastern portions of lake erie. another cold front will
sag south across the lower great lakes late wednesday night or
thursday.

&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...lombardy
near term...lombardy
short term...lombardy
long term...mullen
aviation...mullen
marine...mullen