Toledo Weather - Wed, Jun 10, 2015

#toledo #weather

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
541 am edt wed jun 10 2015

for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

the storm prediction center has indicated there is a slight risk
of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. thunderstorms
will develop along and ahead of a cold front approaching from the
north as well as on lake breezes that will develop along the
south shore of lake erie. a few of the stronger storms could
become severe with damaging winds the main concern.

.days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.

there is a risk for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
thursday afternoon and evening as storms develop along a front
stalled in the area. the threat will continue friday as the front
turns warm and lifts north through the area and a cold front
approaches from the northwest.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed.

---

Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: Jun 9, 2015 10:12 pm

Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 11am. Some of the storms could be severe. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with a southwest wind 14 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. East wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 80.

---

fxus61 kcle 101920
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
320 pm edt wed jun 10 2015

synopsis...
a cold front across lower michigan will move southeast across the
local area tonight and then stall just to the south on thursday.
this front will eventually move back north across the area on
friday. an area of low pressure will dissipate as it moves east
across the area friday night into saturday.

&&

near term /until 6 am thursday morning/...
the area has gotten fairly quiet with just a couple storms over
far ne oh and nw pa. the surface cold front remains over lower
michigan but is currently quiet. surface dewpoints have snuck
into the middle 60s in the west but it appears much of the area
remains capped. models continue to show this cap busting in a
couple of hours but the window for severe weather appears to be
getting smaller and smaller. the best capes and shear profiles for
severe weather will be over far ne oh and nw pa and will continue
with a few hours of likely pops there. further west expect to see
mainly scattered showers and storms for a few hours this evening.
if this activity doesn't get going by 22z or so...much of the
area could end up being dry tonight. either way it should be
mainly dry after midnight. have lowered precip chances most areas
for tonight from the earlier forecasts.

&&

short term /6 am thursday morning through saturday night/...
the cold front is expected to stall just to the south of the area
on thursday. the models are dry for tomorrow but given the
proximity of the front am not comfortable pulling precip from the
forecast. the morning hours should be dry however. precip chances
will diminish during the evening and the remainder of the night
will be dry. that's when things get interesting as the warm front
is expected to lift back north across the area on friday. will see
a warm and very humid airmass spread back across the area with
showers and thunderstorms breaking out during the day. the front
will get close to the lake and then slow down meaning the local
area will be in a favorable location for continued redevelopment.
the gfs is showing model run qpfs of nearly 3 inches by late
sunday. this is probably overdone but most of the area should see
precip from time to time from friday afternoon through early
sunday. do not think saturday will be a complete wash out but am
confident that it will rain at some point. have bumped precip
chances to likely for both friday and night and saturday. it may
dry out saturday night for a time as the front tries to move back
south but still think we need at least chance wording. guidance
temps are in the ballpark.

&&

long term /sunday through wednesday/...
warm humid and unsettled weather will continue into
the first part of next week. lingering/wavering front will still be
in the vicinity until late in the week. therefore the forecast still
is fairly generic with 30 to 50 percent chances spread throughout
the extended. there are signs that the ridge builds enough that
precip chances would not be more than scattered until stronger
forcing moves through. that may be a cold front on tuesday. if the
timing holds then precip chances could be raised for that day. will
continue with the above normal high temperatures and the mild/warm
nights.

&&

aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the region have
diminished in intensity and coverage since late this morning.the
band of clouds associated with this convection has thinned. the
timing of this late morning or early afternoon convection has
disrupted the typically timing of convective development. as cin
diminishes over the next few hours and cape increases especially
over northwest ohio...expect some redevelopment of showers and
thunderstorms. with dcape increasing to the 1200-1400 range some
storms may have intense downdrafts/downbursts. expect activity
over northwest ohio around 22-23z with gradual progression east and
weakening. with some uncertainty in location and timing have just
included vcts or vcsh at taf sites.

overnight the weak cold front will settle southward across the
region by morning. southwest winds of 15-25 knots will diminish by
00z and become light north to northeast by morning.

outlook...areas of non-vfr fri thru sun with sct shra/tsra.

&&

marine...
the weather on the lake will be unsettled over the next
several days with opportunities for thunderstorms. a cold front
northwest of the lake...across lake michigan and western lake
huron...will sink south to the vicinity of the lake tonight. with a
moderate southwest flow on the lake the small craft advisory will
continue as scheduled this evening. winds are expected to diminish
later this evening and also shift around to the north. this front
will stay in the vicinity of the lake through the weekend...at times
lifting north of the lake and at others sinking southward. right now
it looks like it shift back north of the lake on friday...but be
brought south again by a wave on the front friday night. the next
push northward will be either sunday or sunday night. winds will
shift several times through early next week with this front not
flushing out of the area until next week. other than within
thunderstorms and this evening...winds do not appear to be enough to
create small craft advisory conditions through monday.

&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez147>149.
small craft advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for
lez142>146.

&&

$$
synopsis...kubina
near term...kubina
short term...kubina
long term...oudeman
aviation...laplante
marine...kec/oudeman

---

md 0963 concerning severe potential...watch possible for nrn il/ind...srn mi...nwrn oh

mesoscale discussion 0963
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0351 pm cdt wed jun 10 2015

areas affected...nrn il/ind...srn mi...nwrn oh

concerning...severe potential...watch possible

valid 102051z - 102245z

probability of watch issuance...40 percent

summary...isolated severe hail/wind may develop for a few hours
centered between 22-01z with scattered tstms expected to form along
a slow-moving cold front.

discussion...20z surface analysis placed a cold front from the thumb
of lower mi swwd to chicagoland and the ia/mo border area. most of
this boundary resides on the fringe of moderate mid-level w/nwlys to
the sw of a strong jet centered across nrn lower mi/lk huron. this
should be compensated by increasingly large instability with wrn
extent to the ms valley. 1-min visible satellite imagery has sampled
cu increasing along the front with most cams suggesting scattered
tstm development into early evening. large hail and severe wind will
be the main hazards...but uncertainty does exist in the degree of
sustained organized storms. the relatively best combination of
cape/shear may be confined across srn lower mi into nern ind/nwrn oh
per modified 18z dtx raob. the entire corridor of the front will be
monitored for one or more severe tstm watches.

..grams/hart.. 06/10/2015

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...dtx...iwx...grr...lot...ilx...dvn...

lat...lon 41149106 41598910 41718777 41718716 41968595 42248405
42168305 41548305 41218355 40888555 40728783 40699007
40639106 40899145 41149106

---

Last Update: Jun 10, 2015 6:59 pm

Overnight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 8am and 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Southwest wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 12 to 17 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 68. Southwest wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 30%.