Toledo weather sun jun 21 2015

#toledo #weather

the early morning HWO did not mention a risk for storms on Monday even though the SPC's Day 2 convective outlook showed the Toleod area barely contained within the Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms.

The Day 2 convective outlook is the same. I think someone on a later shift at the Cle NWS realized the earlier miss. Maybe a person remembered that Lucas County is part of the Cle NWS's CWA.

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hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
1124 am edt sun jun 21 2015

for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...this afternoon and tonight.

hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.days two through seven...monday through saturday.

there is a chance for severe storms later monday and monday
night.

severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central
great lakes on monday. these storms will likely move toward lake
erie. it is uncertain at this time how long and how far east the
severe storms will persist. the best chance for severe storms
appears to be across northwest ohio. wind damage and large hail
will be the greatest threat although a tornado is possible.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be necessary monday or monday night.

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spc ac 210602

day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0102 am cdt sun jun 21 2015

valid 221200z - 231200z

...there is an enh risk of svr tstms across parts of far se
mn...wi...lake michigan and lower mi...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms across parts of the upper ms
valley and great lakes region...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms across parts of the nrn
plains...mid to upper ms valley...great lakes region and nrn oh
valley...

...summary...
severe thunderstorms will be possible across the upper mississippi
valley and great lakes region on monday where a few
tornadoes...damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail may occur. a
threat for strong tornadoes and wind gusts of greater than 65 knots
will be possible. marginally severe thunderstorms may occur across
the mid missouri valley...mid to upper mississippi valley and
northern ohio valley.

...upper ms valley/great lakes region...
a vigorous upper-level trough will move ewd across the nrn plains
into the upper ms valley on monday as an impressive 60 to 80 kt
mid-level jet overspreads the upper ms valley and great lakes
region. at the sfc...a low is forecast to move quickly newd from the
mid mo valley into the great lakes region as a cold front advances
sewd into the upper ms valley. ahead of the front...a very moist
airmass should be in place with sfc dewpoints in the lower 70s f
which should enable moderate to strong instability to develop across
much of the mid to upper ms valley by afternoon.
in addition to the strong instability...model forecasts show
impressive shear profiles and an upper-level system that appears
quite organized with a well-defined low to mid-level jet couplet.
this could result in a significant event occurring across parts of
the upper ms valley and great lakes region on monday. considering
the nam...gfs and ecmwf models...the nam and gfs appear to the be
most aggressive solutions while the ecmwf is slightly more
conservative concerning the amount of instability...shear and
organization with the upper-level system. many problems exist for
determining the most likely corridor for severe including 1) how
morning convection will impact the setup in the afternoon and 2) how
far north will the capping inversion impede convective development.

the current thinking is that a morning mcs with wind damage
potential will track esewd from ern mn and ern ia across srn
wi...nrn il and into ind around midday. further west behind the
morning mcs...an axis of strong instability will develop from nrn mo
nwd into ern ia with new convection initiating on the nrn end of the
strong instability in far se mn and nwrn wi during the afternoon.
this convection should move ewd and gradually grow upscale. nam
forecast soundings at 21z on monday for madison wi show impressive
thermodynamics and shear profiles with mlcape above 4000 j/kg and
0-6 km shear from 60 to 70 kt. this would be very favorable for
severe storms including supercells. it seems possible that a cluster
of supercells could organize during the mid to late
afternoon...moving ewd across cntrl and ern wi and crossing lake mi
into lower mi by early evening. strong low-level shear could support
a threat for strong tornadoes and a long-track tornado can not be
ruled out. the other possibility is for a severe wind producing
linear mcs that moves quickly esewd across wi during the late
afternoon reaching lower mi by early evening. due to the possibility
of a high-end event for either tornadoes or wind damage...the
enhanced area will be expanded to include most of wi and lower mi
with the significant hatched area also including sern mn.

..broyles.. 06/21/2015

click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product

note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z