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hazardous weather outlook...updated
national weather service cleveland oh
634 pm edt mon jun 22 2015

for lake erie...north central
ohio and northwest ohio.

.day one...tonight.

another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible
overnight. damaging winds will be the primary threat.

.days two through seven...tuesday through sunday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
537 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 S SANDUSKY 41.43N 82.71W
06/22/2015 ERIE OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTED NEAR PERKINS AVENUE IN
SANDUSKY

ZPS

000
NWUS51 KCLE 222137
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
537 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 S SANDUSKY 41.43N 82.71W
06/22/2015 ERIE OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTED NEAR PERKINS AVENUE IN
SANDUSKY

ZPS

the warm front moved through late this afternoon or early this evening. it help fire up the remnants of the midwest MCS that wreaked havoc over MN, IL, and WI.

behind the warm front, our temps have increased this evening with the stronger s-sw winds. our dew points are now in the low 70s at 8:00 p.m. wow.

TOL: Jun 22, 2015 7:52 pm
Weather : A Few Clouds
Temperature : 84 F
Humidity : 65%
Wind Speed : SSW 17 mph - Gust 25 mph
Barometer : 29.80 in
Dewpoint: 71 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 89 F

(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Jun 22, 2015 7:53 pm
Weather : A Few Clouds and Breezy
Temperature : 85 F
Humidity : 63%
Wind Speed : SSW 23 mph - Gust 32 mph
Barometer : 29.82 in
Dewpoint: 71 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 90 F

(near Lambertville)
Jun 22, 2015 7:55 pm
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 85 F
Humidity : 67%
Wind Speed : SSW 9 mph
Barometer : 29.80 in
Dewpoint: 73 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 92 F

The warm front moved through our area late this afternoon or early this evening. Behind the front, our wind speeds have increased to 15 to 30 mph from the south-southwest, causing our temps to rise a few degrees this evening.

At 8:00 p.m., Toledo area temps were in the mid 80s with dew point temps in the low 70s. Conditions are certainly ripe at the low levels.

A line of thundershowers formed recently in central lower Michigan, and this line is dropping southeastward. We could get some rain from this, but I don't think this is the main weather system for late tonight.

I think that the severe thunderstorms currently over Wisconsin will also drop southeastward, and this could be our main weather issue after Midnight.

Strong storms currently exist in Illinois and Iowa, moving eastward. I'm unsure what their role will be in our weather.

Tornado warned counties currently exist in Wisconsin and Illinois.

md 1124 concerning severe potential...tornado watch likely for srn lower mi...nwrn oh...nrn indiana...nern il

mesoscale discussion 1124
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0731 pm cdt mon jun 22 2015

areas affected...srn lower mi...nwrn oh...nrn indiana...nern il

concerning...severe potential...tornado watch likely

valid 230031z - 230130z

probability of watch issuance...80 percent

summary...tornado watch may be required by 01z from lower mi swwd
into nern il.

discussion...large scale ascent appears to be increasing across
lower mi per expanding elevated convection that is evolving atop
boundary layer stratus. while 00z sounding at dtx is notably
capped...800mb temperature is 7c cooler at grb in closer proximity
to short-wave trough. cooling profiles across this region should
contribute to weaker inhibition over the next few hours and elevated
convection is expected to strengthen and near-sfc based tstms will
likely evolve with time...especially over srn lower mi into nrn
indiana. shear profiles strongly support deep rotating updrafts and
given the instability observed supercells should evolve.
additionally...discrete supercell over nrn il is expected to track
sewd along decayed outflow boundary to the south side of the chicago
metro area over the next few hours. this activity could spread into
nwrn indiana later this evening.

..darrow/carbin.. 06/23/2015

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...dtx...iwx...grr...ind...lot...ilx...

lat...lon 42128801 43908330 42748214 41588379 40368769 42128801

WOUS64 KWNS 230114
WOU8

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
915 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

TORNADO WATCH 338 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ILC075-091-197-230700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0338.150623T0115Z-150623T0700Z/

IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

IROQUOIS KANKAKEE WILL

INC003-007-015-017-033-039-049-069-073-085-087-089-091-099-103-
111-113-127-131-141-149-151-157-169-171-181-183-230700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0338.150623T0115Z-150623T0700Z/

IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN BENTON CARROLL
CASS DE KALB ELKHART
FULTON HUNTINGTON JASPER
KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LAKE
LA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMI
NEWTON NOBLE PORTER
PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE
STEUBEN TIPPECANOE WABASH
WARREN WHITE WHITLEY

MIC005-015-017-021-023-025-027-037-045-049-057-059-063-065-067-
075-077-087-091-093-099-115-125-145-147-149-151-155-157-159-161-
163-230700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0338.150623T0115Z-150623T0700Z/

MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGAN BARRY BAY
BERRIEN BRANCH CALHOUN
CASS CLINTON EATON
GENESEE GRATIOT HILLSDALE
HURON INGHAM IONIA
JACKSON KALAMAZOO LAPEER
LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MONROE OAKLAND SAGINAW
SANILAC SHIAWASSEE ST. CLAIR
ST. JOSEPH TUSCOLA VAN BUREN
WASHTENAW WAYNE

OHC039-051-069-125-171-230700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0338.150623T0115Z-150623T0700Z/

OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DEFIANCE FULTON HENRY
PAULDING WILLIAMS

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464-
230700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0338.150623T0115Z-150623T0700Z/

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

ST. CLAIR RIVER

DETROIT RIVER

LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI

OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY

INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI

PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI

HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI

PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI

LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER

LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER

LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER

ATTN...WFO...LOT...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
915 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 915 PM
UNTIL 300 AM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER JET AND COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA WILL FUEL ROBUST STORM UPDRAFTS AMIDST INTENSIFYING
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELL AND
FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF MOUNT
CLEMENS MICHIGAN TO 45 MILES NORTH OF CHAMPAIGN ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 335...WW 336...WW 337...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.

The SPC issued a mesoscale discussion at 8:31 p.m. EDT, followed by a tornado watch at 9:15 p.m. that includes part of the Toledo area. The tornado watch is in effect until 3:00 a.m.

mesoscale discussion:

tornado watch

From the SPC, the primary threats within the tornado watch box include:

a couple tornadoes possible
scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible
scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

Toledo weather mon jun 22 2015 - Part 2