Toledo Weather - Fri, Oct 2, 2015

lakeshore hazard message
national weather service cleveland oh
341 am edt fri oct 2 2015

...strong east to northeast winds will create a lakeshore
flooding hazard...

.northeast winds will increase to 35 knot gales today. the
persistent northeast flow will cause lake levels to fluctuate
between 5 and 6.5 feet above low water datum. in addition waves
are expected to be 8 to 10 feet today and tonight...which will
contribute to lakeshore flooding and beach erosion.

ohz003-007>009-021545-
/o.can.kcle.cf.a.0001.000000t0000z-151003t1400z/
/o.new.kcle.ls.w.0002.151002t0741z-151003t1400z/
lucas-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-
341 am edt fri oct 2 2015

...lakeshore flood warning in effect until 10 am edt saturday...
...coastal flood watch is cancelled...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a lakeshore
flood warning...which is in effect until 10 am edt saturday. the
coastal flood watch has been cancelled.

• lake shore flooding...northeast gales will cause elevated lake
  levels and waves of 8 to 10 feet to create a lakeshore flooding
  threat and significant beach erosion. lake levels are expected
  to fluctuate between 5 and 6.5 feet above low water datum during
  this time frame.

• timing...friday through saturday morning....with a likely peak
  near midnight tonight.

• impacts...beach erosion and coastal flooding is likely.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a lakeshore flood warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur within the next 12 hours.
people in the warning area should take immediate action to
protect life and property. listen to local radio...television...
or noaa weather radio for further information.

&&

$$

oudeman

hazardous weather outlook
hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
336 am edt fri oct 2 2015

ohz003-007>009-030745-
lucas-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-
336 am edt fri oct 2 2015

...lakeshore flood warning in effect until 10 am edt saturday...

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and
northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

lakeshore flood warning.

.days two through seven...saturday through thursday.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

lakeshore flood warning.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

TOL:
Oct 2, 2015 6:52 am
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 49 F
Humidity : 69%
Wind Speed : NNE 17 mph
Barometer : 30.27 in
Dewpoint: 39 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 43 F

formerly Metcalf Airport)
Oct 2, 2015 6:53 am
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 54 F
Humidity : 69%
Wind Speed : NNE 13 mph - Gust 23 mph
Barometer : 30.27 in
Dewpoint: 44 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

(near Lambertville)
Oct 2, 2015 6:55 am
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 50 F
Humidity : 67%
Wind Speed : NE 13 mph - Gust 16 mph
Barometer : 30.29 in
Dewpoint: 39 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 45 F

---

warmer next week. nice. no need to rush the chill.

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Oct 2, 2015 5:51 am

Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph.

Tonight: A slight chance of showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: Showers likely, mainly after 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 58. Breezy, with a northeast wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: Showers likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 52. East wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Sunday: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday Night: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 70.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 71.

---

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
548 am edt fri oct 2 2015

synopsis...
a ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the local area
through this evening. a trough of low pressure will extend north
from the southeastern united states coast and remain nearly
stationary through monday morning. high pressure will move east
across the area by tuesday.

&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
high clouds continue to stream north filling in areas where it was
clear over northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. this will be
the trend through the day.

made some minor changes to hourly temperatures this morning. no
other major changes with this update.

previous discussion...
upper level pattern indicating upper level troughiness will remain
persistent today but will become absorbed as part of the
strengthening upper level low pressure system over the florida
panhandle. this upper level feature will cause a trough to extend
northwest into the forecast area tonight. in the mean time...surface
high pressure to the north will continue to remain in control of the
weather across the forecast area today. persistent brisk northeast
flow will remain through the day and keep a mix of clouds and sun
across the area. most persistent clouds will be the result of
reverse lake effect off lake erie...especially southwest of the lake
and along the lake shore. temperatures will still be on the cooler
side as cold air advection continues through the day. winds will
also be brisk through the day as gradient associated with the high
pressure to the north remains tight.

&&

short term /6 pm this evening through monday night/...
upper level low that develops as a result of troughiness in the
eastern united states will continue to strengthen over georgia.
meanwhile...upper level ridging will occur from the central atlantic
ocean west into new york and pennsylvania into ohio and the great
lakes. the upper level ridge is progged to gradually break down over
time leaving flow over the entire eastern third of the united states
rather sluggish. what does this mean for us...this means there will
likely be no strong push to move any systems affecting the local
area out of here in any fast manner. latest models and hurricane
official track of joaquin pushes the storm a bit further east over
the atlantic...albeit sluggish movement. if this track holds...then
models suggest a bit of moisture will surge west from the atlantic
into the forecast area with the inverted trough and then dissipate as
joaquin cuts off the flow of moisture into the forecast area. keep
in mind if joaquin does take a further west track than currently
projected...then more of an influence from the storm in the form of
moisture could be felt during the latter half of the weekend and
early next week. so...based on that information...i am going to keep
the forecast pretty much where it is based on current trends.
obviously...adjustments up or down will need to be made on rain
chances through the weekend into early next week.

temperatures are going to be tough during this period as cold air
advection around the high pressure will keep temperatures on the
cool side. as rain begins to move west into the area...clouds and
precipitation will have a cooling effect and highs may struggle to
climb out of the 50s saturday. overnight lows holding mostly in the
50s.

lakeshore/coastal flood watch still remains in effect for
counties adjacent to the western basin of lake erie. best chance
for any flooding to occur will be later tonight. will still keep
the watch in effect at this time. gusty winds on lake erie out of
the northeast continues to cause a seiche where water levels have
been on the rise on the west end of the lake. if the water levels
rise tonight as expected...some flooding along the shore is
possible.

&&

long term /tuesday through thursday/...
area will still have flow off of the lake on tuesday and therefore
will keep some cloud cover across the area. have removed the mention
of precipitation as we should be in good shape with surface high
pressure and a flat ridge aloft. otherwise wednesday and thursday
will be a waiting game...waiting for the western u.s. trough to
eject out into the central plains. of course there are varying
solutions as would be expected both because it is far out in time
yet but also just as a result of the pattern we are in. temperatures
will be seasonable.

&&

aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
lingering low level moisture across northwest ohio resulting in
ceilings hovering around 3k feet for the remainder of tonight.
others have sct-bkn mid/high level decks. expect all sites to be
vfr from mid morning onward. strong ne flow will continue. on
and off gusts to 25 knots for the remainder of the
night...increasing to near 30 knots for the daylight hours.
locations along the lakeshore...cle/eri...may be able to reach 35
knots late this afternoon. again some degree of gusts will
continue past sunset. lake clouds possible again friday night for
tol/fdy.

outlook...isolated non vfr possible friday night. non vfr at times
saturday through monday. moderate ne winds continue through
saturday.

&&

marine...
lake will continue to be rough through the first half of
the weekend...subsiding on sunday. gale force winds are expected to
develop today and continue tonight. it will be marginal at either
end of the lake due to the shorter fetch. the increased northeast
flow is due to high pressure residing near james bay that will press
a little more further south today while low pressure develops off
the southeast coast of the u.s. the high will weaken by monday but
will still be influencing the lake on tuesday.

&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...lakeshore flood warning until 10 am edt saturday for ohz003-
007>009.
pa...none.
marine...gale warning from 9 am this morning to 5 pm edt saturday for
lez142>147-162>167.
gale watch from 3 pm edt this afternoon through saturday
afternoon for lez148-149-168-169.
small craft advisory until 3 pm edt this afternoon for lez148-
149.
small craft advisory until 9 am edt this morning for
lez142>147.

&&

$$
synopsis...lombardy
near term...lombardy
short term...lombardy
long term...oudeman
aviation...oudeman
marine...oudeman

---

fzus51 kcle 020749
nshcle

nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
349 am edt fri oct 2 2015

for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie

lez142-143-021430-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
349 am edt fri oct 2 2015

..small craft advisory in effect until 9 am edt this morning...

..gale warning in effect from 9 am edt this morning through
saturday afternoon...

today...northeast winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to
35 knots this afternoon. mostly cloudy. waves 5 to 8 feet.

tonight...northeast gales to 35 knots diminishing to 30 knots
overnight. mostly cloudy. waves 5 to 8 feet.

saturday...east winds to 30 knots. rain showers likely. waves
5 to 7 feet.

saturday night...east winds to 30 knots diminishing to 10 to
20 knots. rain showers likely in the evening...then a chance of
rain showers overnight. waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to
4 feet.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for sunday through tuesday.

the water temperature off toledo is 64 degrees...off cleveland 69
degrees and off erie 68 degrees.

$$

lez144>147-021430-
the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh-
avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-
349 am edt fri oct 2 2015

..small craft advisory in effect until 9 am edt this morning...

..gale warning in effect from 9 am edt this morning through
saturday afternoon...

today...east winds to 30 knots becoming northeast gales to
35 knots this afternoon. mostly cloudy. waves 7 to 10 feet.

tonight...northeast gales to 35 knots becoming east to 30 knots
overnight. cloudy. a chance of rain showers overnight. waves 7 to
10 feet.

saturday...east winds to 30 knots. rain showers likely. waves
5 to 8 feet.

saturday night...east winds to 30 knots diminishing to 10 to
20 knots. rain showers likely in the evening...then a chance of
rain showers overnight. waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to
4 feet.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for sunday through tuesday.

the water temperature off toledo is 64 degrees...off cleveland 69
degrees and off erie 68 degrees.

$$

lez148-149-021430-
geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny-
349 am edt fri oct 2 2015

..small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm edt this afternoon...

..gale watch in effect from 3 pm edt this afternoon through
saturday afternoon...

today...northeast winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to
35 knots this afternoon. partly sunny. waves 5 to 8 feet building
to 7 to 10 feet.

tonight...northeast gales to 35 knots becoming east to 30 knots
overnight. mostly cloudy. a chance of rain showers overnight.
waves 7 to 10 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet.

saturday...east winds to 30 knots diminishing to 20 to 25 knots.
rain showers likely. waves 5 to 8 feet.

saturday night...east winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to
20 knots. rain showers likely in the evening...then a chance of
rain showers overnight. waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to
4 feet.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for sunday through tuesday.

the water temperature off toledo is 64 degrees...off cleveland 69
degrees and off erie 68 degrees.

#toledo #weather