Toledo - 1970 vs 2016

2007 TT post:
http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/3152/Carty_exploits_the_murders_in_Perrysburg_Township

March 2007 Blade story
http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?Date=20070305&Category=NEWS03&ArtNo=703050310&SectionCat=&Template=printart

http://www.toledoblade.com/Police-Fire/2007/03/05/Police-and-fire-often-targeted-seldom-cut.html

From 1970 to 2005, Toledo's population dropped 21 percent, from 383,818 to 301,285. Police and fire staffing dropped during that time, but not as much. Police manpower declined 6 percent, from 730 uniformed officers in 1970 to 686 in 2005. The number of firefighters fell 9 percent, to 509 in 2005 from 558 in 1970. One number that's stayed fairly constant since 1970 is the city's size: 84 square miles.

"Population is only one factor," Chief Navarre said. "You have to look at socioeconomic issues that may be more important than population and square miles. You also need to look at calls for service."

Police calls increased from 310,169 in 1976 to 542,106 calls in 2005, of which 433,415 were 911 calls. Chief Navarre said the city's police force is "lean compared to cities our size." Toledo is near the bottom of Ohio's major cities with 2.2 officers per 1,000 residents.

On the law enforcement side, Toledo has 683 police officers compared to 1,082 in Cincinnati, where there are more people, but fewer square miles. Cincinnati City Council recently increased the budgeted police complement to 1,115. That city has budgeted for a class of 50 this year, Sgt. Louise Shields said. Akron has 443 police officers and a budgeted strength of 487. It hopes to start a police class next month of up to 40 officers and another class in late fall, police Major Gus Hall said.

Toledo may not get a new police class this year or next. If 50 officers leave through attrition as expected and the force falls to 630, Chief Navarre said, "It's going to require we prioritize." The last time Toledo's police force dropped that low, the chief said, was in the early 1980s. He said the force is in a better position to lose 50 people now than in the early 1980s, when officers took calls, dispatched, and worked in records - jobs now held by civilians.

"It's not like the criminals moved out," said Dan Wagner, president of the Toledo Police Patrolman's Association. His suggestions for saving money: cut the mayor's chief-of-staff, Robert Reinbolt, and have fewer command officers take home department vehicles.

Fire runs peaked at 9,247 in 1976 and dropped to 7,175 two years ago. But EMS runs have quadrupled since 1970, to 39,796 in 2005. Toledo has 1.7 firefighters per 1,000 residents, near the bottom among Ohio's big cities, a Blade survey of fire manning showed.

Mark Light, interim executive director of the International Association of Fire Chiefs, said many factors affect the number of firefighters needed, including the age and size of buildings. Ohio's seven big-city fire departments all have mandatory minimum daily staffing levels. Toledo has a total 502 firefighters, and by union contract must have a minimum of 103 on duty daily across its 17 stations. If there are fewer, firefighters are recalled on overtime - a requirement that costs the city millions every year.

2015 staffing levels:

http://www.toledoblade.com/Police-Fire/2015/09/20/Toledo-officers-struggle-with-low-staffing-levels.html

From administration to patrol, the Toledo Police Department employs 631 sworn officers, a department spokesman said. These men and women cover a city of approximately 281,000 people, or about 445 residents per officer.

1970:
pop = 383,818
officers = 730
residents per officer = 526

2015:
pop = 281,031 (decline of 102, 787 or 26.78 %)
officers = 631
residents per officer = 445

26.78 percent drop in population from 1970 to 2015.

13.56 percent drop in police officer numbers.

using the 1970 ratio of residents per officer or applying the population percentage drop to officers, Toledo should have 535 officers and not 631.

http://www.toledoblade.com/Featured-Editorial-Home/2016/03/06/Yes-on-Toledo-tax.html

The remaining $2 million a year from the tax boost would go to the city’s general fund for operating expenses. This year, the increase would enable the city to accelerate the start of the next police class, ensuring the police department will have enough officers to replace those who are expected to retire in 2016.

Two-thirds of Toledo’s general-fund budget goes to personnel costs. Seven out of eight jobs funded by the budget are in public safety — police and fire protection and courts. Few Toledoans would suggest that the city should have fewer police officers and firefighters, or that their pay should be cut.

It appears that based upon 1970 and 2015 numbers, Toledo should reduce the number of police officers by about 100.

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Toledo, Ohio:

	1970	2015	change	% change
population	383,818	281,031	-102,787	-26.78 %
police officers	730	631	-99	-13.56 %
residents per officer	526	445	+81	+15.40 %

1970:
pop = 383,818
officers = 730
residents per officer = 526

2015:
pop = 281,031 (decline of 102, 787 or 26.78 %)
officers = 631
residents per officer = 445

#toledo - #politics - #history

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FYI: This comment is long, and it contains a lot of numbers.

Mar 13, 2016 Blade story, regarding the income tax increase proposal:

That $2 million could be used for police salaries. ... the increase in the income tax would allow the city to hire the new police officers in May rather than November.

This year the city will transfer between $10 million and $11 million from the capital budget to the general fund to avoid police and fire layoffs.

From last week's Blade op-ed

Few Toledoans would suggest that the city should have fewer police officers and firefighters ...

Why can't that suggestion be made? Does an unwritten rule exist that prohibits the discussion of Toledo having fewer police officers and firefighters?

Notice that the Blade op-ed writer(s) failed to mention a single reason why we should maintain or increase the number of police officers and firefighters.

Toledo, Ohio:

#ccc;padding:5px;" cellspacing="0">

	1970	2015	change	% change
population	383,818	281,031	-102,787	-26.78 %
police officers	730	631	-99	-13.56 %
residents per officer	526	445	+81	+15.40 %
firefighters	558	490	-68	-12.19 %
residents per firefighter	687	574	+113	+16.45 %
square miles	84	84	0	0.00 %

I'm assuming that fewer residents per police officer and firefighter are positives for everyone.

The population number 281,031 is the 2014 estimate for Toledo, according to Wikipedia. It's the most recent population number for Toledo. That population number was referenced in a September 2015 Toledo Blade story that mentioned Toledo's 631 sworn officers.

Additional info came from these March 2007 and June 2015 Blade articles.

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• What's the logical reason for the rate in decline for police and fire not aligning with the rate of decline for Toledo's population?

• Or what's the reason for not using the 1970 ratios of residents to police officers and firefighters in 2016?

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If we used the 1970 ratios, then Toledo would see the number of police officers drop from 631 to 534, and the number of firefighters drop from 490 to 409.

How much money would Toledo save if it reduced the number of police officers by 97 and the number of firefighters by 81?

It seems like a sensible question to me. Why aren't we using the 1970 ratios?

We have more technology today than in 1970 that is suppose to help police officers. With Toledo's population decline, we have more vacant lots.

If legitimate reasons exist to maintain or increase current police and fire numbers, then I'll accept those reasons, and I will never violate any unwritten rules again. But what are those reasons?

On the police side, the reason can't be crime. It cannot be crime. City officials cannot say that we have more crime per residents today compared to 1970 because that would mean as Toledo's population decreases, crime and taxes increase. How is that attractive?

In that March 2007 Blade article, some info was provided:

"Population is only one factor," Chief Navarre said. "You have to look at socioeconomic issues that may be more important than population and square miles. You also need to look at calls for service."

Police calls increased from 310,169 in 1976 to 542,106 calls in 2005, of which 433,415 were 911 calls.

Fire runs peaked at 9,247 in 1976 and dropped to 7,175 two years ago. But EMS runs have quadrupled since 1970, to 39,796 in 2005.

A quadrupling in EMS runs even though our population declined by over 20 percent. What in the hell are people doing? We got rid of lawn darts. Is this due to the baby-boomer generation experiencing more birthdays?

Also from that 2007 Blade story:

From 1970 to 2005, Toledo's population dropped 21 percent, from 383,818 to 301,285.

Approximately 10,000 EMS runs occurred in 1970 with a population of 383,818. That was approximately one EMS run for every 38 residents.

Then in 2005, Toledo had nearly 40,000 EMS runs with a population of 301,285. That's approximately one EMS run for every 7.5 residents.

Are we wimpier today? Are we not taking care of ourselves? More hospitals to use? Or is it simply an aging population?

According to Toledo's 2010 census

• The median age in the city was 34.2 years
• 24% of residents were under the age of 18
• 12.8% were between the ages of 18 and 24
• 26.3% were from 25 to 44
• 24.8% were from 45 to 64
• 12.1% were 65 years of age or older

BTW, playing the "other cities" card is mentally feeble. I don't live in other cities. I live in Toledo.

And nobody needs to be reminded that police officers and firefighters engage in dangerous work, and that they are important to our city. Everybody knows that much.

Remember, the mayor believes that to be more efficient, Toledo must grow the general fund budget and increase taxes.