Toledo Weather - Thu, May 5, 2016

TOL:
May 5, 2016 7:52 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 45 F
Humidity : 90%
Wind Speed : N 12 mph
Barometer : 29.79 in
Dewpoint: 42 F
Visibility : 7.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 39 F

formerly Metcalf Airport)
May 5, 2016 7:53 am
Weather : Fair with Haze
Temperature : 49 F
Humidity : 77%
Wind Speed : N 10 mph
Barometer : 29.79 in
Dewpoint: 42 F
Visibility : 6.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 45 F

(near Lambertville)
May 5, 2016 7:55 am
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 47 F
Humidity : 84%
Wind Speed : NNE 8 mph
Barometer : 29.81 in
Dewpoint: 43 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 43 F

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: May 5, 2016 6:42 am

Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 63. North wind 11 to 16 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. North wind 5 to 11 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 68. North wind 6 to 9 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 49. Light and variable wind.

Saturday: A chance of showers before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. South wind 7 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.

Monday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

---

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
736 am edt thu may 5 2016

synopsis...
an upper level low responsible for ongoing showers will drift
south of the area today. the low will drift over the eastern
seaboard tonight. a warm front will move in saturday followed by
a cold frontal passage saturday night.

&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
radar shows light rain across most of the forecast area at this
time. as the upper low continues to sink south as visible on
satellite imagery...the showers will taper off starting in the
north. mostly cloudy skies will linger through midday and then
gradually clear out in the west this afternoon. meanwhile the
eastern counties will see mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions with
showers today as the cold pool aloft combines with wrap around
moisture and some weak daytime instability to support some
redevelopment.

prev discussion...
satellite imagery shows a well defined upper
low over indiana with moisture wrapping around it including over
the local area. this feature and moisture will continue to support
showers in the region through the afternoon. as the upper low
drifts south and east the showers will be confined to the se
counties by later in the day. the cold core aloft(-25c @h500) will
destabilize the area but not seeing enough instability to add
thunder wording to the forecast at this time. clouds...north
wind...and showers will keep temperatures in the 50s to 60f this
afternoon. in the west there will be less clouds so temperatures
could be a few deg above 60f.

&&

short term /6 pm this evening through sunday night/...
high pressure will build in from the west overnight at the same
time a coastal low will be developing near delmarva. the area will
be influenced by both surface features with wrap around moisture
keeping mostly cloudy conditions with isolated showers in the
east and clearing skies in the west. this will continue into
friday though expect the rain chances to be reduced in the
east...unless the coastal low retrogrades back west as some
models are suggesting. with expected sunshine in the west on
friday we could see temperatures nearing 70f...with temps in the
lower 60s in the more cloudy east.

a warm front will move into the area late friday night/saturday
morning with low level moisture increasing. some of the models
hint at rain chances with this frontal passage...but not convinced
we'll see showers given the weak forcing and limited moisture. the
best chance for rain will be ahead of and along a cold front late
saturday. temperatures are expected to warm into the 70s which
will help destabilize the environment enough to support capes
around 300-500j/kg. the forcing and moisture are not sufficient
for severe storms...but it is favorable for most areas to see some
convection. surface based cape fades quickly after dark around the
time the frontal passage arrives. the thicknesses fall behind
the front with temperatures falling into the 50s and lower 60s for
sunday as weak high pressure build in from the west.

&&

long term /monday through wednesday/...
the flow remains somewhat blocked and split through the middle of
next week which will provide some challenges in timing and strength
of systems. ridging early in the week is dampened quickly as a series
of upper lows and troughs fight their way eastward across the great
lakes.

the gfs now looks more like the ecmwf and brings showers east
quickly on monday. the cmc holds onto dry weather but the trend is
wetter and will have a chance of showers in the forecast monday for
all but extreme northeast oh and northwest pa.

the next cold front will approach later tuesday. will keep a chance
of showers in the forecast and mention thunder for northwest ohio.
the showers may hold off until later in the day depending on the
timing of the front.

the ecmwf is more emphatic about dropping the next cold front down
to the ohio valley on wednesday where the gfs leaves the front in
the vicinity of the lower great lakes. given the uncertainty...will
keep a chance of showers in the forecast on wednesday.

temperatures will likely not be far from normal...with tuesday being
the warmest day...70s...if we can get into the warm sector and hold
off the showers for at least part of the day.

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