Toledo Weather - Wed, Jun 15, 2016

Light rain falling at 9:43 a.m.

SPC now shows the border between Slight and Marginal risks through the Toledo area. The Slight Risk covers Ohio, east of I-77 and south of the turnpike.

Yesterday morning, we were in the Enhanced Risk. Then by mid-day yesterday, the Enhanced Risk was removed, and we were solidly covered by a Slight Risk.

This morning we were barely in the northern edge of the Slight Risk. And now at mid-morning, the Slight Risk continues to shift southward.

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hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
534 am edt wed jun 15 2016

lez142>145-162>165-ohz003-006>010-017>020-027>031-036>038-047-160945-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh-lucas-wood-
ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-wyandot-
crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
534 am edt wed jun 15 2016

this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

thunderstorms are expected to develop today. there is a slight
chance that some storms could become severe with the potential to
create large hail and damaging winds.

.days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed.

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TOL: Jun 15, 2016 5:52 am
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 66 F
Humidity : 68%
Wind Speed : ESE 5 mph
Barometer : 29.86 in
Dewpoint: 55 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

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Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jun 15, 2016 3:18 am

Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Light and variable wind becoming south 6 to 11 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 77. Southwest wind 10 to 14 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. North wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 81. East wind 13 to 18 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 84.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 86.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 66.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.

Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80.

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
308 am edt wed jun 15 2016

synopsis...
a warm front will lift northeast into ohio today ahead of low
pressure dropping across the great lakes. by evening the warm
front should be near a toledo to mansfield line. the warm front
will move east of the area thursday morning as a cold front moves
in from the west. the low will move southeast across ohio thursday
dragging the cold front with it. high pressure will build back
over the region for the end of the week.

&&

near term /through today/...
a warm front roughly near an kord-kcvg line at 06z will lift
northeast and reach near a ktol-kmfd line by 00z this evening.
current area of convection across nrn indiana and srn wi being
supported by good isentropic lift over the warm front just ahead
of increasing boundary layer cape. the nam also shows a short wave
moving into the area. this translates east through the day with
the warm front. believe the current activity will combine with
developing convection in north central indiana and move east into
nwrn ohio this morning...likely weakening as it does as it outruns
the best instability. this will continue east impacting nern oh
and nwrn pa late morning early afternoon. meanwhile by late
morning/early afternoon expect the warm front to be moving into
the west with convection likely developing along of just west of
the front in the unstable air. this too should then translate east
through the late afternoon early evening. spc has continued a
slight chance for the western 2/3rds of the area for the afternoon
activity. highs from the mid and upper 70s nwrn pa to the mid 80s
southwest. will have likely pops west and increasing to likely in
the east by 00z.

&&

short term /tonight through saturday night/...
rain/thunder chances remain in the forecast tonight through
thursday night. tonight the warm front will continue to move
slowly northeast into nern oh as the parent low drops southeast
across lower mi. by 12z thursday the associated cold front will
also be approaching from the wnw. capes remain elevated through
the night across the area with most of the area in the warm sector
between fronts. will have likely pops in the east for the evening
to catch what will likely be ongoing showers/tstms from after
afternoon but will lower to chance for the overnight as the nam
brings in slightly drier air from the west. thursday however the
surface low will drop southeast across the area dragging the cold
front with it. would expect showers and a chance of thunder given
the upper support. will taper pops thursday night. friday through
saturday night high pressure will build in from the northwest.
expect clear/pc skies and no pops. highs around 80 thursday and
friday and in the lower 80s saturday.

&&

long term /sunday through tuesday/...
models in good agreement for sunday with large area of high
pressure just se of the forecast area. this will keep area high
and dry and also set up a warming trend. the temps sunday and
monday will push back into the mid to upper 80s. but the above
normal conditions will be short lived as models push next cold
front across the forecast area monday night into tuesday. likely
see convection with the front...but this far out will leave chance
pops going. high pressure builds back over the area wednesday.

&&

aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr conditions will continue through the overnight. a warm front
stretching from near chi into sw ohio will lift slowly ne wednesday.
models disagree on forecast. nam has showers and thunderstorms
associated with the warm front reaching northwest ohio toward
daybreak and moving east wednesday morning. gfs on the other hand
has nothing in the morning...but showers and thunderstorms
developing in nw oh during the afternoon and moving east. strong
to severe thunderstorms are a possibility wednesday afternoon and
evening but low confidence trying to time the thunderstorm threat
at any given location. for now will keep morning showers with tsra
redeveloping in the west during the afternoon. winds should veer
from east to south.

outlook...non vfr at times wednesday night through thursday in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

marine...
the east winds will gradually veer to the southeast late today into
the overnight as the warm front across sw oh moves across the
lake. mariners should be alert for thunderstorms late this
afternoon into the evening hours. some of the storms could become
strong to severe. models continue to move a low pressure system
across the lake thursday. potential for a small craft advisory
friday into friday night as the canadian high pressure builds
across the lake and a northeast flow sets up. conditions should
improve over the weekend as the gradient weakens.

&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...tk
near term...tk
short term...tk
long term...djb
aviation...djb
marine...djb

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spc ac 150556

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1256 am cdt wed jun 15 2016

valid 151200z - 161200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over ern mt...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over cntrl/srn wi...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over portions of oh and tn
valleys...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms over portions of the nrn
rockies and nrn plains...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms from the great lakes and oh
valley swwd into w tx...

...summary...
isolated strong to severe storms are expected wednesday into
wednesday evening across a portion of the great lakes into the
ohio...tennessee and lower mississippi valleys. other strong to
severe storms remain possible later wednesday night over a portion
of northeast montana.

...synopsis...
shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum currently moving
into mn is expected to track sewd across the upper ms valley and
great lakes region as it rounds the upper ridge extending across the
cntrl conus. surface low will move sewd just ahead of the shortwave
and will likely be centered over lwr mi by 12z thu. farther w...a
shortwave trough will move quickly through the base of the upper low
centered just of the british columbia/washington coast...progressing
across the nrn rockies and into srn alberta.

...upper great lakes...oh and tn valleys...
ongoing tstms moving across the mid ms valley complicate the
forecast with uncertainty regarding airmass overturning...location
of outflow boundaries...and how far east the system progresses.
current thinking is that outflow associated with this system will
lead to additional tstms development during the early afternoon
across portions of the oh and tn valleys. environment here will be
weakly sheared but a warm and very moist airmass will support strong
instability and tstms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

farther nw /across wi/...convergence near the surface low will
likely result in tstms development amidst an airmass characterized
by temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid to upper
60s. these conditions will support at least moderate instability.
mid-level flow will gradually strengthen with the resulting vertical
shear supportive of rotating updrafts capable of hail and strong
wind gusts. sely surface winds near the warm front may also result
in increased low-level shear and low tornado potential.

...cntrl/ern mt...
strong swly flow aloft is already in place over mt with the
persistence and strengthening of the flow anticipated during the
day. as a result...lee troughing will deepen with sely upslope flow
advecting low-level moisture into ern mt. additionally...lee
cyclogenesis appears probable across ne wy with the resulting low
tracking nwd across ern mt late in the period...further
strengthening upslope flow into the region. sely upslope flow
beneath strong mid-level flow aloft will result in a strongly
sheared environment with 0-6 km bulk shear around 50-60 kt.

airmass over the region is expected to stay capped throughout the
day before continued moisture advection and a strong llj initiate
elevated tstms during the evening. given the strong shear...elevated
supercells are anticipated with a resulting primary threat for large
hail. even with stable low-levels...the strength of the flow and
anticipated strength of the storms should also lead to a few strong
winds gusts.

...portions of the srn plains and srn high plains...
very warm and humid conditions are expected across the region with
isolated tstms possible as daytime heating destabilizes the airmass.
shear will be weak but strong to extreme instability -- mlcape from
2000 to 4000 j per kg -- anticipated will result in the potential
for large hail and damaging wind gusts with any storms that do form.

...carolinas...
scattered to numerous tstms are expected amidst modest flow and a
moist airmass...resulting in the potential for a few damaging wind
gusts.

..mosier/gleason.. 06/15/2016

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z

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