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Toledo weather August 10 2016

Toledo Weather

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afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
915 am edt wed aug 10 2016

synopsis...
a slow moving cold front over the upper midwest will push across the
area saturday night into sunday then high pressure will spread east
over the region early next week.

&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
very moist airmass over the region with precipitable water values
around 2" and dew points in the lower 70s. this airmass will
support scattered showers and thunderstorms with more coverage
this afternoon as daytime heating adds to the instability. we
could end up with a lake shadow today as the lake breeze kicks in,
which in itself could become a catalyst for convection this
afternoon. with h850 temperatures around 18c we can expect another
hot day for the area. the clouds and showers could help keep some
areas in the upper 80s, however most of the area should reach the
lower 90s. this combined with dew points in the 70s will support
heat index values in the mid/upper 90s this afternoon, warmest
near toledo where we expect more sun. without much in the way of
shear not overly concerned about severe weather. however with a
saturated airmass in place and storm motions around 15 to 20 mph
we could see some heavy rain, localized flooding issues. wpc has
the region in a marginal risk for flash flooding.

&&

short term /6 pm this evening through friday night/...
as daytime heating wanes the threat for convection will taper off
thru midnight with only a slight chc for activity after that. light
winds and a humid airmass should lead to fog formation late tonight
for much of the area.

thu and fri will show little change with very warm and humid
conditions continuing with daily chances for tsra for mainly the
afternoon and evening. highs will mostly run from the upper 80s to
lower 90s with lows mostly 70 to 75. patchy fog will likely occur
late each night.

&&

long term /saturday through tuesday/...
cold front looks like it will sag slowly across the region saturday
evening into early sunday. warm moist airmass ahead of the front
will allow for the development of thunderstorms. since the airmass
is so moist we will need to monitor the flooding potential. the main
concern will be intense rainfall rates that may lead to some flash
flooding. high pressure will gradually increase its influence as it
moves into the area from the northern plains monday into tuesday. it
appears the region will dry out by tuesday.

it will be warm and humid over the weekend. the warmest day of the
long term looks to be saturday with highs in the middle 80s.
slightly cooler sunday through tuesday but still very close to
seasonal averages.

&&

aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
middle level cloud cover seems to have been enough to limit the fog
development this morning. still expect to see some patchy mvfr
fog but it looks as if it will be short lived.

otherwise there were still a few showers near and south of a line
from marion to corry. these showers may also produce some mvfr
conditions as they drift to the northeast. beyond this morning the
convective initiation is a difficult call. it does appear that
there will be some development but there is not a clear trigger.
for now have only gone with a vicinity thunderstorms at kmfd, kcak
and kyng.

winds away from this mornings thunderstorms will generally be
from the south. weak lake breeze will likely develop from kcle to
keri with an onshore flow.

outlook...non-vfr possible in thunderstorms thursday through the
weekend. areas of non-vfr fog possible each morning.

&&

marine...
ridge of high pressure will gradually decrease its influence into
friday as it is nudged east and southeast. a cold front will then
approach the area on saturday with a slight increase in
southwesterly winds. winds friday into saturday should not exceed 15
knots. the front passes by sunday morning.

&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...adams
near term...adams/jamison
short term...adams
long term...mullen
aviation...mullen
marine...mullen

Fulton and Henry Counties click to expand contents
Monroe and Lenawee Counties click to expand contents
The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.

page created: Aug 10, 2016 - 11:03 a.m. EDT


hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
934 am edt wed aug 10 2016

ohz003-006>011-017>021-027>031-036>038-047-111345-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-hancock-seneca-huron-
medina-summit-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-
934 am edt wed aug 10 2016

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

scattered thunderstorms expected today. torrential
rainfall...localized flooding...gusty winds and dangerous
lightning form storms. max heat indices in the middle to upper
90s.

.days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

#toledo #weather

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