Toledo Weather - Tue, Nov 1, 2016

amazing weather. no thunderstorm weather. november, the most variable and volatile month of the great lakes.

TOL:
Nov 1, 2016 11:52 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 70 F
Humidity : 68%
Wind Speed : SSW 16 mph - Gust 23 mph
Barometer : 29.98 in
Dewpoint: 59 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Nov 1, 2016 11:53 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 72 F
Humidity : 66%
Wind Speed : SSW 17 mph - Gust 24 mph
Barometer : 29.99 in
Dewpoint: 60 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

near Lambertville)
Nov 1, 2016 12:14 pm
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 73 F
Humidity : 62%
Wind Speed : SSW 8 mph
Barometer : 29.98 in
Dewpoint: 59 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

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Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Nov 1, 2016 9:24 am

This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Southwest wind around 14 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph.

Wednesday: A slight chance of showers after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday Night: Showers, mainly after 11pm. Low around 50. Light and variable wind becoming northwest around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers, mainly before 8am. High near 59. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 34.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 56.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 39.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 61.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 41.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 60.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 40.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 58.

page created: Nov 01, 2016 - 12:30 p.m. EDT

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1208 pm edt tue nov 1 2016

.synopsis...
high pressure centered over new england will move off the coast this
afternoon...allowing a warm front to lift north across the area. a
low pressure system will move across the lower lakes wednesday
night. the low will track across upstate ny thursday forcing the
front south as a cold front.

&&

.near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
a few showers have developed over southeast ohio. the dngnam
appears to have a good handle on these showers and moves them to
the east of the forecast area this afternoon. based on the
satellite imagery and dngnam, i will bump pops up slightly in the
south but not enough to mention precipitation at this time.
temperatures appear to be on track so no other adjustments.

original discussion... warm front currently across nern ky
will lift ne across the forecast area this afternoon...as high
pressure centered over new england shifts east. dense cirrus
across illinois and indiana will move across the forecast area
this morning filtering the sunshine. but the clouds will shift
east of the area this afternoon allowing for more sunshine. as the
front lifts ne the temps will warm into the 70s. the record highs
for today are in the lower 80s most places so do not expect any
new records...but temperatures will be roughly 15 to 20 degrees
above normal for this time of year.

&&

.short term /6 pm this evening through friday night/...
the unseasonably warm weather will continue into wednesday...as the
warm front stalls north of the forecast area. little change in the
remainder of the short term forecast. models continue to move a
low pressure system across the lower lakes wednesday night ushering
in widespread rain showers for the entire area wednesday night.
could see a stray shower wednesday evening...but bulk of the
precip should occur after midnight. although the exact track and
timing of the low is still in doubt...all 3 models track the low
across upstate ny thursday...dragging a cold front across the
forecast area. this will usher in more seasonal conditions by
friday.

&&

.long term /saturday through monday/...
dry conditions with a stretch of near seasonal temperatures expected
during the extended portion of the forecast. the area will reside
between a trough over new england and a high amplitude ridge over
the plains. a dry northwesterly flow will be in place aloft with
high pressure centered over the ohio valley. we will have to
continue to monitor the northwest flow for any stronger impulses
moving south out of canada that could impact the region but at this
time the dry forecast looks on track. the upper level ridge will
build overhead early next week with temperatures trending warmer.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
scattered to broken clouds between 3000-5000 feet are in place
across much of northeast ohio. this band of clouds is expected to
continue moving northeast this morning with low clouds scattering out
by around 15z. will continue with a short window of low level wind
sheer at tol as a 35-40 knot low level jet near 2000 feet extends
from indiana into michigan. otherwise most sites will see south to
southwest winds increase by this afternoon to around 20 knots.
southwest winds will drop off to 10 knots or less by 22z. a
frontal boundary will sink south to near lake erie after 06z
tonight with vfr clouds lowering below 10000 feet.

outlook...non-vfr possible wednesday night into thursday in
showers then again thursday night into friday in northeast
ohio/northwest pennsylvania.

&&

.marine...
a warm front will lift north across lake erie today with southerly
winds of 10-20 knots, settling into the 10-15 knot range this
evening. a weak frontal boundary will sink south towards the lake on
wednesday with winds becoming light and possibly shifting to the
northeast. an area of low pressure is forecast to track east along
this boundary on wednesday night, pulling a cold front south across
the lake behind it on thursday. a small craft advisory may be needed
late thursday as north to northwest winds increase to near 20 knots
on the eastern half of the lake. high pressure will build over the
lake on friday and slowly build east over the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...djb
near term...garnet
short term...djb
long term...kec
aviation...kec
marine...kec

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nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
916 am edt tue nov 1 2016

for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie

lez142>145-012015-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
916 am edt tue nov 1 2016

.rest of today...south winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest.
mostly cloudy late this morning...then becoming mostly sunny.
waves 2 feet or less.
.tonight...southwest winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to 10 knots
or less. partly cloudy in the evening...then becoming mostly
cloudy. waves 2 feet or less.
.wednesday...southwest winds 10 knots or less. mostly cloudy.
waves 2 feet or less.
.wednesday night...south winds 10 knots or less becoming
northwest. a chance of rain showers through early evening...then
rain showers from late evening on. waves 2 feet or less.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for thursday through saturday.

the water temperature off toledo is 53 degrees...off cleveland 58
degrees and off erie 57 degrees.

$$

lez146>149-012015-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from willowick to geneva-on-
the lake oh-lake erie nearshore waters from geneva-on-the-
lake to conneaut oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-
916 am edt tue nov 1 2016

.rest of today...south winds 10 to 20 knots. partly sunny. waves
1 to 3 feet.
.tonight...south winds 10 to 20 knots becoming southwest and
diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. partly cloudy in the evening...then
becoming mostly cloudy. waves 2 feet or less.
.wednesday...southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest.
mostly cloudy. waves 2 feet or less.
.wednesday night...southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming
north. rain showers from late evening on. waves 2 feet or less.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for thursday through saturday.

the water temperature off toledo is 53 degrees...off cleveland 58
degrees and off erie 57 degrees.

$$
page created: Nov 01, 2016 - 12:30 p.m. EDT

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