Toledo weather - Thu, Jan 30, 2014

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jan 30, 2014 12:24 am

Overnight: Clear, with a low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -8. South wind around 11 mph.

Thursday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 25. Wind chill values as low as -11. Breezy, with a south wind 14 to 21 mph.

Thursday Night: Snow likely, mainly between 9pm and 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Breezy, with a southwest wind 13 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Friday: Snow likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Southwest wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 19. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: Snow likely before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 22.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 6.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 24.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10.

Tuesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

---

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
1010 pm est wed jan 29 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-301115-
/o.con.kcle.wc.y.0009.000000t0000z-140130t1400z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-
trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-
marion-morrow-holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-
southern erie-crawford pa-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...mentor...chardon...
jefferson...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...medina...akron...
ravenna...warren...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...
ashland...wooster...canton...youngstown...marion...mount gilead...
millersburg...mount vernon...ashtabula...erie...edinboro...
meadville
1010 pm est wed jan 29 2014

...wind chill advisory remains in effect until 9 am est
thursday...

• wind chill readings...will dip to -10 to -15 degrees after
  midnight. some portions of northeast ohio and northwest
  pennsylvania may see wind chills as low as -20 degrees.

• winds...southwest winds will range from 5 to 10 mph overnight. portions
  of northwest ohio and areas near the lakeshore will see winds
  increase overnight to 10 to 20 mph.

• temperatures...overnight temperatures will fall to around 5
  degrees in northwest ohio...with temperatures as low as -3
  degrees in inland northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

• impacts...frostbite can occur on exposed skin with prolonged
  exposure to the cold.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

if you will be outdoors use common sense and dress warmly...
making sure that all exposed skin is covered. avoid prolonged
exposure to the cold...if possible... to prevent frostbite and
hypothermia. stay tuned to weather radio for further details or
updates.

---

fxus61 kcle 300415
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1115 pm est wed jan 29 2014

synopsis...
high pressure over the ohio valley will move off the east coast
thursday. a cold front will move southeast across the area friday
and stall in the vicinity. a wave of low pressure will move along
the front across the forecast area saturday.
&&

near term /until 6 am thursday morning/...
lowered wind speeds a little more for the early part of tonight
with many locations in the 5 to 10 mph range this evening. the
surface high will build to the east overnight which will result in
winds starting to come back up after 1 or 2 am...especially in the
west and along the lakeshore. given the lighter winds in the
east...tweaked lows down a degree or two. depending on the wind
speeds...the wind chill advisory may be marginal in northwest
ohio with wind chill values only falling to around -10 degrees.
elsewhere wind chill values will overnight to -10 to -15 degrees
with some portions of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania
dipping as low as -20 degrees. temperatures will recover into the
mid 20s through the day on thursday...bringing some welcomed
relief from the cold.
previous discussion...have issued a wind chill advisory for
tonight. lowered overnight forecast a few few degrees judging from
temps upstream. met was over forecasting temps last night by an
average of 5+ degrees and believe that it is doing the same for
tonights forecast. currently wind chills hovering around the zero
to minus 5 degree range. do not expect winds to decouple overnight
so wind chills should fall into the minus 10 to minus 15 degree
range overnight.
&&

short term /6 am thursday morning through saturday night/...
brief warm up as high shifts east and area comes under s-sw flow.
models in good agreement moving next cold front through the area
thursday night into friday morning. pops significantly different
between gfs and nam. gfs is forecasting 20-30 pops while nam 60-80
pops...nam seems more realistic so went likely pops thursday night
with an inch or so accumulation.
weekend forecast not so clear cut. all three models stall front
near the cwa on friday...so will continue likely pops on friday.
after that models diverge on track of the low pressure system that
will track across ohio on saturday. both the ecmwf and nam track
low across nw ohio late saturday. if this is indeed the case would
see good warm up with snow in the morning changing to rain in the
afternoon. gfs on the other hand tracks low across ne ohio which
would lead to a colder and snowier forecast. for now went with
continuity which was to split the difference. snow in the morning
with rain across the south and a rain snow mix across the north
during the afternoon. much uncertainty remains with qpf amounts
on saturday as well. nam is the outlier with around an inch of
qpf for the 12 hour period saturday...while ecmwf is around half
that. for now will stay with ecmwf solution.
&&

long term /sunday through wednesday/...
since the ecmwf is slower with the low sat into sat night not sure
if all the snow will have cleared the east part of the area by sun
so may carry a small chance in the east to cover this. high pressure
moves over the area sun night then hangs over the area thru mon
night so will hold on to dry conditions. the models start to differ
on tue and more so by wed so forecast becomes more uncertain.
however...today's 12z of the ecmwf has trended more toward the gfs.
splitting the difference in the models leads to an increasing
chance for snow tue and a good chance tue night with a chance mainly
in the east on wed.
temps will trend back below normal early next week but not like the
recent arctic outbreaks.
&&

aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
high pressure and dry stable airmass will continue overnight
across nrn ohio and nwrn pa. expect vfr/clear skies to persist
through much of thursday as well. do expect winds to increase
quickly through the morning reaching sustained 15 to 20 knots with
gusts 25 to 30 kts from the ssw. a cold front will move into nwrn
ohio after 00z so vfr conditions will come to an end thursday
evening. brought in mvfr cigs and vsbys after 02z kfdy and ktol
and brought to kcle by 04z. also added wind shear to ktol kfdy
keri and kcle for the overnight/early morning.
outlook...non vfr possible thursday evening/night through friday
night in light snow and then in mixed precipitation saturday into
saturday night.
&&

marine...
winds look to mainly run 20 to 30 knots into fri then diminish. a
cold front will move into the lake during the day fri and stall
until a low moves along the front near the lake sat and pulls the
front se of the lake. winds should line up out of the nw sat night
into sun but only at about 10 to 20 knots. high pressure moves over
the lake sun night and mon to provide light and changeable winds.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind chill advisory until 9 am est thursday for ohz003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...wind chill advisory until 9 am est thursday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

#toledo - #weather